Last Minute Premonitions

[MovieWes]

However, if the voters are going on body of work, then I imagine that Leo DiCaprio would be a major threat as well, with both Blood Diamond and The Departed grabbing a lot of industry support. His big year is the only reason that I am not predicting a win for O'Toole, since the members voting on body of work might split their votes between the two, causing the clear favorite, Whitaker, to take this one in a walk.

When we talk about Oscars being given for ''body of work'', O'Toole certainly comes to mind. How can you mention DiCaprio's body of work in the same breath? This boy is still in his twenties and he has a whole lifetime to create his ''body of work''.

I meant for 2006 (as in Blood Diamond and The Departed), not overall.

[Reza]

However, if the voters are going on body of work, then I imagine that Leo DiCaprio would be a major threat as well, with both Blood Diamond and The Departed grabbing a lot of industry support. His big year is the only reason that I am not predicting a win for O'Toole, since the members voting on body of work might split their votes between the two, causing the clear favorite, Whitaker, to take this one in a walk.

When we talk about Oscars being given for ''body of work'', O'Toole certainly comes to mind. How can you mention DiCaprio's body of work in the same breath? This boy is still in his twenties and he has a whole lifetime to create his ''body of work''.

[MovieWes]

Sound: Apocalypto over Dreamgirls. If the academy doesn't want to hear another Susan Lucci joke, they'll give Kevin O'Connell an award here, since there's been endless campaigning in both Entertainment Weekly and Oprah to give O'Connell enough recognition to people who would otherwise look over this catagory. But here's the deciding question: which will be a bigger obstacle: Dreamgirls' backlash or Mel Gibson's anti-sematic rantings.

Somehow, I doubt that Mel Gibson's anti-Semitic rants will do little to affect the outcome of Best Sound, since the award would have nothing to do with Mel Gibson and everything to do with Kevin O'Connell.

[Hollywood Z]

Foreseeable upsets:

Actor: Peter O' Toole winning over Forest Whitaker. It's a long shot as those who have seen the film find it morally reprehensible, but sympathy could send votes Peter's way.

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy. Vet versus vet, but will the Dreamgirls backlash mixed with the Norbit jokes be enough to drive votes away from Murphy? Could happen.

Supporting Actress: Abigail Breslin over Jennifer Hudson. Though Hudson appears to be a lock, support for the film has wained over the weeks, leaving the voting open for Breslin, who's Sunshine is getting a lot of buzz.

Song: "I Need to Wake Up" over "Listen". As the the past two years have shown, the academy has gone against the globes in this catagory and if support for Dreamgirls is as faltering as I'm predicting, then Melissa Ethridge could benefit here.

Sound: Apocalypto over Dreamgirls. If the academy doesn't want to hear another Susan Lucci joke, they'll give Kevin O'Connell an award here, since there's been endless campaigning in both Entertainment Weekly and Oprah to give O'Connell enough recognition to people who would otherwise look over this catagory. But here's the deciding question: which will be a bigger obstacle: Dreamgirls' backlash or Mel Gibson's anti-sematic rantings.

[Akash]

But haven't they already decided he's going up onstage with the director? You know they're not letting that opportunity pass.

[MovieWes]

Well, technically, Al Gore can't win because he's not nominated. Davis Guggenheim is the nominee for An Inconvenient Truth.

[Akash]

If Al Gore wins, he'll make some joke about how he won't call for a vote recount this time.

Please, please please, Al! Don't say it! The show's bad enough as it is.

oh GOD you're right. The man is intelligent but has zero comedic timing and sensibility and will probably go for the groan-inducing obvious.

I'd rather he make an ass over tit joke.

[MovieWes]

I'm not going to officially predict it, but I think that there's a good chance that Peter O'Toole is going the big upset this year. The Oscars just love to give actors their dues, and there isn't an actor in any race this year who is as overdue as Peter O'Toole. He has, by far, the most impressive body of work of any of the nominees, his most notable roles being Lawrence of Arabia, Becket, and The Lion in Winter, all of which would be the clear favorites if they had competed in any of the modern Best Actor races.

However, if the voters are going on body of work, then I imagine that Leo DiCaprio would be a major threat as well, with both Blood Diamond and The Departed grabbing a lot of industry support. His big year is the only reason that I am not predicting a win for O'Toole, since the members voting on body of work might split their votes between the two, causing the clear favorite, Whitaker, to take this one in a walk.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Believe it or not! In my country every newspaper is refering to Babel as the clear favourite.

Same here in Canada! Mystifyingly, it's been "picking up steam" as of late, when clearly it's been Little Miss Sunshine winning the recent PGA and WGA and et cetera, and not Babel. Not four hours to go, and I'm still trying to untangle the Gordian knot of Best Picture winner between Departed, Babel, and LMS. Most likely I will go with my original premonition and think Scorsese will pull the Departed with him, but it just doesn't FEEL like a movie that wins Best Picture (then again, neither does Sunshine, other than the image I had of it being in the pantheon as I wrote below): the only movie that feels that way is Babel.

However, is it so decisive that the Academy stayed away from it in fear of another Trash-like reaction? Could they really go for the Queen (which is guaranteed Actress and possibly Screenplay and Score), or - in my dreams - Letters (where Clint upsets Marty yet again, considering his movie is much better anyways)? I haven't participated in such a wide-open race before, and I've decided to weigh this category with more points than all the rest for my Oscar Pool, simply because it can go so many ways. I am as nervous as if I myself was nominated.

Also, didn't Sunshine get a rapturous reception when it won at the Writer's Guild and Producer's Guild? They picked up a bunch of Spirit Awards yesterday too; it just seems to me that all of Hollywood has gotten on board.

[Hustler]

Believe it or not! In my country every newspaper is refering to Babel as the clear favourite.

[The Original BJ]

2000 Ang Lee was the predicted winner after the DGA. Few picked it to win Best Picture because it was a foreign fim. Most picked Gladiator or Traffic.

Maybe 2002 Even after the DGA many were still predicting Scorcese to win.

I think what's important in these years is that, even though some predicted splits (Gladiator/Lee, Chicago/Scorsese), the splits that resulted were big upsets few saw coming. Few have actually predicted the actual splits over the past couple years. A Babel/Scorsese outcome COULD happen this year, but I almost think people are setting themselves up for another A Beautiful Mind/Altman or Million Dollar Baby/Scorsese non-outcome; though the race may be VERY tight, I agree with Dennis and Mister Tee in thinking that Scorsese will pull The Departed with him (as Gibson pulled Braveheart, and Demme Silence in two similarly muddled years), and that this race may not seem as unsettled Monday morning.

Like Dennis, I've hesitated about predicting Babel for the top prize when it seems likely to lose most of its other categories. Of course, should it pick up Editing, Screenplay, and Score early in the evening, this would all bode very well for the film's Picture chances. I've also had a very difficult time getting a pulse on how much people actually LIKE Babel. Bear in mind, I like the film more than most of you (but I don't love it), so I initially thought that my perception of the film's reception (that's a tongue twister) was being tainted by so much hatred around here, but since talking to many friends about it, I've found that many people with varying taste flat-out despise this movie. That low box-office can't help either. I'll be interested to see how I react should Babel win; it's my second favorite of the nominees, and I think it's not such a bad choice, but I know most of y'all would be outraged, and I want you guys to be (relatively) happy with the winner. Plus, it would probably be better for Babel's place in history NOT to have a Best Picture trophy.

Dennis, I also think The Lives of Others will win Best Foreign Film. Of course, Pan's would not surprise me at all, but (like others) I've had a nagging hunch about this one for a while. Should Lives prevail, watch for Tom O'Neil and his minions to call it the shockeroo of all time, when anyone who knows anything clearly understands this is a genuine possibility.

Mister Tee, do you really think the audience will boo if Little Miss Nothing wins? I thought people in Hollywood love this movie, especially if they vote for it to win?

[Dennis Bee]

Since bringing up 1985 earlier this morning, I'm haunted by it. Come to think of it, the Steven Spielberg snub--and the unprecedented "Snub this, Academy!" choice by the DGA to give it to him anyway--resulted in Oscar predictions as unsettled as this year's. After the Oscars, I figured that Pollack would have won the DGA if the Academy directors branch had nominated Spielberg, and the whole year would have been boringly predictable. Talk about your crazy years. But because of Out of Africa's seven-Oscar sweep and The Color Purple's near-record shutout, most people have forgotten what an epically unsettled race it was beforehand.

Moreover, it was a year when the precursors went a little mad; there was the DGA-to-Spielberg temper tantrum and also the LAFCC "Try Not to Release This, Universal " Brazil provocation (Of course, they were heroically right to do this). The reason, really, was that everyone in different ways was acting out over one of the worst years in movie history. Whereas 2006, everyone seems to agree, is the best year for movies since 1999, with at least The Departed, Pan's Labyrinth, and the Eastwood Iwo Jima films likely to go down as classics (These are all auteur films, of course, as are the less acclaimed Volver and Marie Antoinette, the latter of which especially will be well remembered in the future.) Of course, the Academy in 1985 responded, as they often have, by making the most boring, mainstream choice available.

Most prognosticators thought John Huston would win; they imagined that the voters wouldn't be able to resist going for the record books and seeing John and Anjelica Huston on stage together. No one thought Prizzi's Honor would win BP, however, black comedy not exactly being the Academy's thing. 1985 is actually another "Don't Bet on the Split" object lesson.

The Out of Africa sweep made sense in retrospect, but few saw it coming; when Streisand, presenting Best Director, launched into the opening bars of "The Way We Were," it was surprising, though again it made sense right away. Out of Africa was a bit like Braveheart a decade later--a ten-nomination (or was it eleven?) movie that no one argued wasn't flawed (starting with Robert Redford, one of the classics of totally wrong miscasting). It's not a total outrage like Braveheart; it's just boringly, reverentially bad. I tried watching it again a year or so ago and couldn't last past the first forty minutes; it's totally uninteresting, Meryl-Streep-accent of the month- white-people-in-Africa-colonial-nostalgia- Reagan-Thatcher-Era-bad.

My question now is, if this is 1985, what is Babel? Is it Out of Africa? Or is it The Color Purple? I think it's one or the other. Is Martin Scorsese this year's John Huston? (Of course, Huston didn't have that year's DGA.) Or is he Sydney Pollack? Before the 1985 awards, I knew that The Color Purple was a leading contender, but looking category-by-category, I couldn't see a single Oscar it was likely to win (shades of many of us with Babel, only more so. Babel has a better-than-good chance at Score and Editing and Orig. Screenplay [if it's going to win BP]). But Color Purple really, really wasn't going to win Actress or Supp. Actress or Ad. Screenplay or Cinematography or Score ... on and on.

I've actually thought since the Golden Globes that Inarritu is a strong outside upset threat for director; he could come between Scorsese and Eastwood the way, say, Polanski came between Marshall and Scorsese four years ago. Babel is a nutso script almost saved by wonderfully observant and intense direction. Moreover, I thought Inarritu won a lot of hearts (including mine) with his priceless "My papers are in order, Governor" ad lib to Schwarzenegger at the Globes. And then there's all the "three amigos"-year of diversity publicity. I can see a scenario where Babel wins solidly, with five or six Oscars, a la Out of Africa in '85. That's the third most likely outcome.

The most likely outcome--and it's still very likely, IMO--is a Departed sweep of three or four Oscars.

The second most likely script is the kind of every-which-way split, in which Scorsese does win; Babel or Letters comes out on top for BP with orig. screenplay and maybe one or two others (in Letters' case, Sound Editing; in Babel's Editing and maybe
Score.) But unsettled years have often had remarkably settled-looking results (but admittedly, not after 1998).

As to the seriously unlikely, nearly snowball's-chance scenarios: If The Queen wins, I'll move to England and become a British subject. (That's a long way from Indiana.) If LMS does it, I'll enter the Little Miss Sunshine contest and strip to "Super Freak" myself. (You do not want this alternate reality, trust me.)

[inky]

3. The must-see-all-five rule for Foreign will sink Pan's Labyrinth, as it has done to many a popular front runner in the past (This after all was its purpose--to give films not yet widely seen in the US a chance). The winner will be Lives of Others.

After seeing Lives of Others last night, I agree that this is a very possible scenario; it's just as complex a film as Pan's Labyrinth, and the ending is--in its own humanist way--just as magical as the ending in Labyrinth.

I thought LIVES OF OTHERS and PAN'S are equally Oscar-baiting. Anti-war-themed films usually do well in this category (recall that AMELIE was lost to NO MAN'S LAND, for example), not to mention that plenty of Americans are against Bush's Iraqi policy at the moment.

[Franz Ferdinand]

I can feel that Arkin will win Supporting Actor, but would the Oscars go the "make-up" route and also award a make-up Oscar to O'Toole in the same year? It is his eighth try (worked well for Pacino), so there might be an upset.
As for me, I am still maddeningly agonizing over which movie will win Picture - right now, Departed, Babel and Little Miss Sunshine all seem like likely winners - though I did have a premonition of the future, seeing a picture of the cast members in the yellow bus alongside pictures of past Picture winners (Eastwood over Swank's shoulders in M$B, Zeta-Jones and Zellwegger dancing in Chicago), so I might have to go with that image.

[Penelope]

3. The must-see-all-five rule for Foreign will sink Pan's Labyrinth, as it has done to many a popular front runner in the past (This after all was its purpose--to give films not yet widely seen in the US a chance). The winner will be Lives of Others.

After seeing Lives of Others last night, I agree that this is a very possible scenario; it's just as complex a film as Pan's Labyrinth, and the ending is--in its own humanist way--just as magical as the ending in Labyrinth.