NBR Winners

[Big Magilla]

Press release:

The National Board of Review has postponed its annual Awards Gala, which was set for Jan. 11 at Cipriani in New York City, due to the ongoing COVID-19 surge.

“Out of an abundance of caution and for the health and safety of our guests, members and community, we have made the decision to postpone the NBR’s annual Awards Gala,” NBR President Annie Schulhof said in a statement Thursday. “We look forward to celebrating this year’s honorees, safely, at a later time.”

Further details on the postponement will be announced in the coming weeks.

[Sabin]

Wanted to clock the number of films cited in the Board's top ten list vs. the overall Best Picture lineup and it more or less tracks to 1/2 to 2/3rds of the titles end up nominated for Best Picture.

2020: 5/8
2019: 6/9 (+ Parasite)
2018: 4/8 (Roma cited with the rest of the films)
2017: 6/9

Over the last five years, nothing up for Independent Film has been nominated for Best Picture.

If I had the guess the likelihood of them ending up nominated for Best Picture:
1. West Side Story
2. Licorice Pizza
3. Belfast
4. Dune
5. King Richard
6. Don't Look Up
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth
8. Nightmare Alley
9. Red Rocket
10. The Last Duel

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
On greater reflection, a few thoughts about these results:

Belfast and King Richard did what they needed: scored with the "critics" group most likely to like the warm-fuzzies they provide. Smith, especially, more or less had to win here to be a serious best actor candidate.

This is an excellent point, especially regarding Will Smith. He doesn't really need to win anything else now until the Golden Globes are announced. He's in no danger of people asking "Is Benedict Cumberbatch now the front-runner?" or whatever.

Aunjanue Ellis is another big winner. She's by no means a lock but the category is still largely amorphous without a real front-runner, so any strong mentions help her.

Mister Tee wrote
On the other hand, two other such films heavily touted -- CODA and C'mon C'mon -- failed to make an appearance, and may be a pipe dream.

They both got nominated for Best Independent Film for whatever that's worth, but the fact that they couldn't elbow in past The Last Duel (same with House of Gucci) as Red Rocket did is telling.

Mister Tee wrote
NBR has been wildly favorable to Farhadi, and give him two prizes here -- while omitting Pedro altogether. International Film could turn out to be a barn-burner this year.

If Iran even submits A Hero. Farhadi just demanded that Iran withdraw his film for Foreign Language consideration

https://www.indiewire.com/2021/11/asgha ... 234680237/

[Mister Tee]

On greater reflection, a few thoughts about these results:

Belfast and King Richard did what they needed: scored with the "critics" group most likely to like the warm-fuzzies they provide. Smith, especially, more or less had to win here to be a serious best actor candidate.

On the other hand, two other such films heavily touted -- CODA and C'mon C'mon -- failed to make an appearance, and may be a pipe dream.

Don't Look Up's spot on the list is worth noting, because neither of McKay's previous Oscar vehicles, The Big Short or Vice, made the cut.

It's also weird that DelToro makes it for this less-admired effort after missing for The Shape of Water. NBR playing catch-up?

NBR has been wildly favorable to Farhadi, and give him two prizes here -- while omitting Pedro altogether. International Film could turn out to be a barn-burner this year.

[OscarGuy]

It's also possible Netflix screwed up release of the film. I and several other critics I know only just received the screener today or yesterday. We got a pre-package a few weeks ago, but it didn't have the screener in it. I wonder if they were delayed in production, thus the NBR didn't all get to see it.

[Big Magilla]

Upon reflection, yes, but you have to think about it.

That’s what makes it a great film (among other things)

I didn't say it wasn't a great film. I was commenting on the oddity of the NBR overlooking it while honoring a film in the same melancholy mode although one that you don't have to think about. I was being ironic in my comment.

[Sabin]

Well, that bodes pretty well for Licorice Pizza right out of the gate. Since the expansion of the Best Picture slate, only two films have failed to break through: A Most Violent Year and Da 5 Bloods.

What's interesting is this trend I noticed: over the course of each decade, only one of their Best Picture winners misses out on an Oscar nomination.

In the 2010s, it was A Most Violent Year.
In the 2000s, it was Quills.
In the 1990s, it was Gods and Monsters.
In the 1980s, it was Empire of the Sun. Betrayal did as well but it was tied with Terms of Endearment.

The 1970s were a bit rougher as they missed out on 1971 (Macbeth), 1978 (Days of Heaven), and 1979 (Manhattan). And worse in the 1960s, but I realized something: does any other crix group have that batting average?

For LAFCA, each Best Picture winner got nominated in the 2010s.
7/10 in the 2000s (missing About Schmidt, American Splendor, and WALL*E)
10/10 in the 1990s.
7/10 in the 1980s (Brazil, Little Dorrit, and Do the Right Thing).

For NYFCC, 9/10 in the 2010s (Carol) -- also missing First Cow last year.
7/10 in the 2000s (missing Mulholland Drive, Far From heaven, United 93)
7/10 in the 1990s (missing The Player, Leaving Las Vegas, Topsy-Turvy)
10/10 in the 1980s.

For the National Society, 7/10 in the 2010s (missing Melancholia, Goodbye to Language, and The Rider).
5/10 in the 2000s (missing Yi Yi, Mulholland Drive, American Splendor, Pan's Labyrinth, Waltz with Bashir)
6/10 in the 1990s (missing Life is Sweet, Breaking the Waves, Out of Sight, Being John Malkovich/Topsy-Turvy)
1/10 in the 1980s (not listing them all)

Not a bad forecaster for a group we largely don't take too seriously.

[mlrg]

Upon reflection, yes, but you have to think about it.

That’s what makes it a great film (among other things)

[Big Magilla]

Upon reflection, yes, but you have to think about it.

[flipp525]

The absence of The Power of the Dog is surprising as is their pick of Pig for directorial debut. That film is even more melancholy than Campion's, but at least you don't have to figure out the ending for yourself.

What do you have to figure out about the ending of The Power of the Dog? It’s pretty clear what happens (and why).

[Big Magilla]

Isn’t it the popular wisdom that one of the NBR acting wins doesn’t translate to an Oscar nomination?

Yes. It's more often than not Best Actress but last year it was Best Actor.

[Mister Tee]

Isn’t it the popular wisdom that one of the NBR acting wins doesn’t translate to an Oscar nomination?

Yes, and the Awards Worthy bunch has already noted that best actress is a category that has not infrequently been the one (Amy Adams 16, Emma Thompson '13, Tilda Swinton '11, Lesley Manville '10). Zegler, being the only acting winner who wasn't already on everyone's lists, will be viewed with some skepticism, but who knows?

The other most noteworthy fact is the omission of The Power of the Dog from even the list of 10. This could mean something, or be totally random -- The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water weren't listed in their respective years, but did pretty okay with the Oscars. NBR is, as usual, fun, but not dispositive. (But, hey: at least Clint didn't automatically make it.)

[Big Magilla]

I originally predicted a tie for Breakthrough performance but had it between Jude Hill (Belfast) and Woody Norman (C'mon, C'mon). I changed it because I didn't think they would really have a tie in that category. Their pick of Alana Haim and Cooper Hoffman surprises me more than their choice of their film, Licorice Pizza, as the year's best, which was not my prediction but is not a surprise either.

The absence of The Power of the Dog is surprising as is their pick of Pig for directorial debut. That film is even more melancholy than Campion's, but at least you don't have to figure out the ending for yourself.

[flipp525]

Isn’t it the popular wisdom that one of the NBR acting wins doesn’t translate to an Oscar nomination?

[Mister Tee]

ON EDIT: Confirmed by Variety.

It's not up on their site yet, and the link (at IndieWire) that published these has been taken down. But the person who posted these (at Awards Watch) is among their most trustworthy, and the list strikes me as legit (though best film is certainly a startler). I'll amend if it turns out bogus.


Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY

Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST

Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO

Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA

Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO

Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO

Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

Top Films (in alphabetical order)
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Red Rocket
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)
Benedetta
Lamb
Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
Titane
The Worst Person in the World

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
Ascension
Attica
Flee
The Rescue
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
The Card Counter
C’mon C’mon
CODA
The Green Knight
Holler
Jockey
Old Henry
Pig
Shiva Baby
The Souvenir Part II