OscarGuy wrote:And my POINT, Sonic, was more that these were not the awards to use as an example of elevating her to a frontrunner. Other awards maybe, but the NBR is notoriously bad for picking nominees.
And even when I said I didn't expect she was such a sure thing for a nomination, she was still in my predictions list for Supporting Actress, so whether I had the opinion she wasn't a slamdunk nominee, she was still on my predictions.
OscarGuy, I think it's your tendency to overuse statistics to back up your assertions that's coming back to haunt you in this case. Clearly, a preponderance of critics awards for Amy Ryan has now qualified her as at least a surefire nominee, if not the current frontrunner many thought Cate Blanchett was for awhile (sight unseen for the most part). Citing the NBR's lack of success in translating wins to Oscar nominations becomes irrelevant when Ryan has now won three or four more critics awards on top of that. Statistics are a good place to start in prognostication, but there are several other factors that oftentimes overshadow them (audience reception, versatility of the performer, type of character, film popularity, etc.) And when you simultaneously argue that no one can really take your argument seriously because, after all, she was listed in your predictions, it leads me to believe that either your predictions or your arguments in thread should be taken with less than a grain of salt. Just my two cents on the matter.
Edited By flipp525 on 1197298806
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
You know, we had the same discussion over at the OFCS. I think we've disqualified Ellen Page for breakthrough...She was a breakthrough nominee for Hard Candy. How is this a new breakthrough?
And my POINT, Sonic, was more that these were not the awards to use as an example of elevating her to a frontrunner. Other awards maybe, but the NBR is notoriously bad for picking nominees.
And even when I said I didn't expect she was such a sure thing for a nomination, she was still in my predictions list for Supporting Actress, so whether I had the opinion she wasn't a slamdunk nominee, she was still on my predictions.
Edited By OscarGuy on 1197291005
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Sonic Youth wrote: But we'll continue to write intelligent, detailed retrospectives-before-the-fact arguing both sides of the case, which feel very persuasive at the time because we're so in-the-moment.
Of course we'll continue to do that - it's part of the game. And not only part of THIS game - this is what happens every day on newspapers about, for example, political predictions - each new fact changes the prospective for the future, yet this doesn't mean that the analysis for that moment or day wasn't correct.
I don't understand this American idea. What should we do - keep silent till nomination day? We are here to comment, after all, and to make our predictions. (And by the way, if I have to be completely honest, it's not like for example the Los Angeles Film Critics award will make me completely change mine) - which are, quite simply, the analysis of the present situation and what it can lead to. One can say that there are intelligent predictions and stupid predictions, true, but it's obvious that they are always influenced by daily events - and daily precursors. It's HOW we interpretate these events which matters.
But maybe I'm just jealous. You are probably in a wonderful part of the world and I'm stuck in Milan.
At this extreme level of remove - a.) not having seen a new release in six weeks; b.) not having much internet access, and not keeping up with the developments so thoroughly; c.) in a part of the world where you can flush only by pouring a bucket of water down the toilet - it's very amusing to read the spontaneous commentary here several days after the fact. You know what? Sometimes it's a good thing to step back and disconnect from the race for a period of time. It's tough, sure. We're all addicts. It's been on my mind, oh yes it has. But, for no other reason, at the very least stepping away from the real-time tyranny of the internet makes abundantly clear how little we really know at a time when we think we know it all for sure. No Country for Old Men and Sweeney Todd now frontrunners? Atonement a weak contender? There Will Be Blood an also-ran? Clooney, Christie, Affleck and Ryan could very well be the four Oscar winners in the acting categories? Maybe. Looks good in theory. But here comes the LA awards, and all perspective is changed. And tomorrow are the NY awards, and the dynamics will alter again. And then the Globes and the SAGS nomination announcements. And then most things we've said here will be rendered irrelevent. Yo, peeps! I know we've been waiting a long time for this. But let's contain ourselves until at least a few more precursors.
Prime evidence: the sounding of the death knell for "There Will Be Blood" in this thread, and its miraculous ressurection in the LA critics thread. Happy Easter. It's shut-out here could have just been a fluke. Or, it's victory in LA could be the fluke. Who knows? But we'll continue to write intelligent, detailed retrospectives-before-the-fact arguing both sides of the case, which feel very persuasive at the time because we're so in-the-moment.
Now that I'm in the east, this is my new holistic approach to Oscar prognostication. I must say, it's very peaceful and fulfilling. Feel the lotus, be the lotus, drive the Lotus...
Doesn't mean some things aren't obvious upon first appearence. Oscar Guy, you continue to establish your role as the UAADB contrarian. Amy Ryan is, has been, and from the way things look now, will continue to be the Supporting Actress frontrunner. What happens ultimately is anyone's guess. But yes, she's the frontrunner, it ain't even a question. (And a fine choice, too, even if Ed Harris was my fave performance in the film.)
This board will hit its Tin Anniversary sooner than we think. I could see it keeping on into the Gold Anniversary. Can we PLEASE stop acting surprised every time this group changes its rules and categories and number of films it decides to award? All awards groups change their rules at any given year at the drop of a hat, and none more so than these noodniks. Don't we know the drill by now? The NBR finds a way to honor as many films as it can in as many ways as it can. This is nothing new. The NBR hasn't presented a top ten list in numerical order since 2004. This is nothing new. The alternate best-of-ten list for indie films is REALLY nothing new. It's a shit thing to do, ghettoizing worthy films in a subsidiary list in the guise of spotlighting them. But it's been an NBR staple for years. Only the name of the category is new. It used to be called "Special Mention for Excellence in Filmmaking".
I mentioned this long ago in passing and then left it alone, but I think it's a good time to bring this up again. No, Atonement did NOT receive unanimously rapturous reviews at the various film festivals, all claims here to the contrary. The international press overall were respectful. It had a number of good reviews, and it had its share of disappointing notices. But it wasn't seen by the majority of the critical community as the film for the ages.
I have absolutely no idea what "The Bucket List" or the Frank Langella film is.
Whoever is in charge of distributing 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days might want to get in a well-publicized qualifying run, and fast. It won Film/Director at the European Film Awards, it did great with the LA critics. Can't they at the very least do this allegedly Oscar-unfriendly film a little favor? Just as a show of faith?
If nothing else, this list shows that it was pretty damn good year for mainstream cinema, right?
And wasn't "Hard Candy" Ellen Page's breakthrough role?
rolotomasi99 wrote:not that this comes as a surprise to anyone here, but just further proof the national board of review is a group of idiots.
THE BUCKET LIST
Roger Friedman
If chemotherapy, vomiting and long stays in a hospital are your cup of tea, then Warner Bros' "The Bucket List" is for you. Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, each of whom turned 70 this year and has an Oscar, star as two guys who are dying in a hospital room. Their illness? Scenery chewing.
Seriously, director Rob Reiner has made one of the most tedious films of the year, which isn't so easy to do anymore. What happened to our Rob? He hasn't made a good film in a decade. The man responsible for "When Harry Met Sally," "Spinal Tap," "Stand by Me" and "The American President" went sour somewhere along the way. He used to be hip and acerbic. Now he's all about broken hips.
Oh, but "The Bucket List" is really, truly terrible, particularly in a sequence that shows the two men going back and forth to the bathroom, throwing up, incontinent, hallucinating, feverish from chemo, etc. Do we really need to see this? It's like "Beaches" for very old grumpy men.
Well that's disappointing. Even though I didn't expect the movie to be up for any major contending awards, I was still holding out hope that it would be good.
Although, as usual, the ad currently playing in theaters is too long, the movie looks to be at least decent. But this statement makes it seem likely to tank.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
rolotomasi99 wrote:not that this comes as a surprise to anyone here, but just further proof the national board of review is a group of idiots.
THE BUCKET LIST
Roger Friedman
If chemotherapy, vomiting and long stays in a hospital are your cup of tea, then Warner Bros' "The Bucket List" is for you. Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, each of whom turned 70 this year and has an Oscar, star as two guys who are dying in a hospital room. Their illness? Scenery chewing.
Seriously, director Rob Reiner has made one of the most tedious films of the year, which isn't so easy to do anymore. What happened to our Rob? He hasn't made a good film in a decade. The man responsible for "When Harry Met Sally," "Spinal Tap," "Stand by Me" and "The American President" went sour somewhere along the way. He used to be hip and acerbic. Now he's all about broken hips.
Oh, but "The Bucket List" is really, truly terrible, particularly in a sequence that shows the two men going back and forth to the bathroom, throwing up, incontinent, hallucinating, feverish from chemo, etc. Do we really need to see this? It's like "Beaches" for very old grumpy men.
Well that's disappointing. Even though I didn't expect the movie to be up for any major contending awards, I was still holding out hope that it would be good.
not that this comes as a surprise to anyone here, but just further proof the national board of review is a group of idiots.
THE BUCKET LIST
Roger Friedman
If chemotherapy, vomiting and long stays in a hospital are your cup of tea, then Warner Bros' "The Bucket List" is for you. Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman, each of whom turned 70 this year and has an Oscar, star as two guys who are dying in a hospital room. Their illness? Scenery chewing.
Seriously, director Rob Reiner has made one of the most tedious films of the year, which isn't so easy to do anymore. What happened to our Rob? He hasn't made a good film in a decade. The man responsible for "When Harry Met Sally," "Spinal Tap," "Stand by Me" and "The American President" went sour somewhere along the way. He used to be hip and acerbic. Now he's all about broken hips.
Oh, but "The Bucket List" is really, truly terrible, particularly in a sequence that shows the two men going back and forth to the bathroom, throwing up, incontinent, hallucinating, feverish from chemo, etc. Do we really need to see this? It's like "Beaches" for very old grumpy men.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
atomicage wrote:Ryan's win surprises me, but, just as OscarGuy said, I don't think there is a single lock in this category in terms of the Academy, unless Blanchett comes back from her "let's go best actress" high.
I think Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan and at least one of the three Brionies (Ronan, Redgrave or both seem most likely) are looking pretty at this point in the game. Keep in mind that Ryan has worked with a bunch of actors on stage and film, including several members of the Academy. I like Penelope's comparison to Shelley Winters' win for A Patch of Blue, a similarly hateful character who could not be ignored come awards time.
I'd love some critics awards to start going to Kelly MacDonald.
Just curious, why do you put all movie titles in boldface, atomicage?
I have to say that I am in the same boat as you. Though I don't think anyone is really locked, I can, at this point, see Blanchett, Ryan, Ronan, and Redgrave in four of the slots, with a fifth empty for that certain special somebody. Kelly MacDonald definitely did what she needed to in No Country; maybe there's room for her, though Dukakis and [insert name of that one Great Debaters actress] are also being looked at right now.
I missed Penelope's Winters correlation, but it definitely is fitting. I could see it happening looking from that perspective.
As for the bold text, one word: habit. I started doing it a while back and it just stuck. Why, is it painful on the eyes?
atomicage wrote:Ryan's win surprises me, but, just as OscarGuy said, I don't think there is a single lock in this category in terms of the Academy, unless Blanchett comes back from her "let's go best actress" high.
I think Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan and at least one of the three Brionies (Ronan, Redgrave or both seem most likely) are looking pretty at this point in the game. Keep in mind that Ryan has worked with a bunch of actors on stage and film, including several members of the Academy. I like Penelope's comparison to Shelley Winters' win for A Patch of Blue, a similarly hateful character who could not be ignored come awards time.
I'd love some critics awards to start going to Kelly MacDonald.
Just curious, why do you put all movie titles in boldface, atomicage?
Edited By flipp525 on 1197055406
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
I'm not going to make any definitive statements as to the tides of the race based solely on these NBR results. However I do have some speculation:
Best Film
The win to No Country For Old Men does not surprise me at all. When I tallied up our predictions, it more-or-less always came in second to Atonement, which, I should add, I'm reading not-exactly-great reviews about. Most of these I predicted, save for Bourne Ultimatum and Bucket List. I agree with anonymous that latter is probably a fluke; the former, I think, could receive an Editing nod, it anything come Oscar time. I did expect Once, The Savages, and Away from Her to be on this list, until they got bumped down to Independent Film. Add Lars inclusion surprised me, as did the exclusion of There Will Be Blood, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, and, drawing back from the beginning to the year, Zodiac.
Best Director
Congrats to Tim Burton! Adding this to his receiving the Career Golden Lion at Venice, this year could turn out really nicely for him. This, combined with Sweeney Todd's Top Ten listing, shows that the film's late release may not lead to it being ignored.
Best Actor
When I saw Michael Clayton, I thought it was a fine movie with a fine cast. However, I didn't, and still don't, find George Clooney's performance worthy of the buzz it was getting. Perhaps I am in the minority, but in this case, I'm comfortable with that; I found Swinton and Wilkinson to be much more effective. Yet his win here is a safe choice; I initially predicted that the NBR would give the win to Brolin, simply because I didn't know. Depp's performance has been seen by few, and favorite Day-Lewis was been excluded for who-knows-what. So I'm guessing that this furthers some's belief that Clayton is the sleeper hit of the year, carrying Clooney to perhaps his second acting nomination.
Best Actress
I think we saw this coming. 'Nuff said.
Best Supporting Actor
I can proudly say that I predicted this one. Affleck may not get the Oscar over Bardem, but I definitely predicted him to get several critic awards and a "awesome job this year" nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
A number of us thought that NBR would split this between the three Briony actresses from Atonement. Apparently not. Ryan's win surprises me, but, just as OscarGuy said, I don't think there is a single lock in this category in terms of the Academy, unless Blanchett comes back from her "let's go best actress" high.
Best Foreign Film The Diving Bell and the Butterfly... from what I read, most predicted this one. Not surprised to see The Band's Visit on the Top 5 list, though.
Best Documentary
Out of the six documentaries mentioned, only three (Body of War, Taxi to the Darkside, and Nanking) are in the Oscar's 15-slot shortlist. Sicko's exclusion made me double-take, but thinking about it now, it's not really that big of an infraction at this point in the precursors.
Best Ensemble Cast
This went to the right people. I predicted Before the Devil Knows Your Dead, but noted that if they even bothered with No Country as featuring an ensemble, it definitely deserved to win. Everyone in that film was great.
Best Breakthrough Actor & Actress
Predicted both of these. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them get nods come Oscar nominations.
Best Directorial Debut
I thought Tony Gilroy or Sarah Polley would get this, but then someone mentioned Ben Affleck, and I definitely could see it happening. Well, it did, and just like the Hollywood Film Festival, both Affleck brothers leave with something.
Best Original Screenplay
If a tie was to occur, I thought it would be between Juno and Michael Clayton. But from what I hear, Lars is an "irresistably original tale of love".
Best Adapted Screenplay
I said Christopher Hampton would win for Atonement, but that P.T. Anderson and the Coen brothers could give him a run for his money. And after reading the aforementioned reviews for the film, I'm not surprised that the Coens took this one.
Best Animated Feature
Pixar takes it again; surprise surprise.
One thing that worries me is the complete ignoring of There Will Be Blood. I saw that it was discussed earlier, but does anyone know for sure whether the exclusion was for logistical purposes, or is the film just really not that good?
flipp525 wrote:Jennifer Connelly is so hot, even I'd fuck her.
Gee, flipp, I had the impression that you'd bottom for even Jennifer Connelly. I would've imagined you'd give her the strap-on as a gay-Christmas present.
