The Annual WHO WILL BE BACK? Thread

[Nik]

Nice write-up Mister Tee! And yeah, McAvoy is totally gonna be a star and receive an Oscar nomination soon. Next five years, tops.

[Precious Doll]

I agree that McAvoy would be the more likely to score a nomination before Hirsch or Dano based on the films he has appeared in but starring in Wanted is going to help his cause.

To be honest I'm not too keen on any of them, though a nomination for McAvoy in Atonement would have been well deserved.

[OscarGuy]

Touché precious, but let me throw a few more things that tilt the result in McAvoy's favor: McAvoy has had two major high profile flicks in the last two years. Last King of Scotland put him on the map alongside Forest Whitaker's mega-watt turn and he appeared in this year's Oscar nominee Atonement. Hirsch starred in a majorly failed Oscar contender. The film bombed like few of us thought he would. McAvoy was actually invited to the Oscars as a presenter whereas Hirsch was merely an after thought.

But, he could easily go the route of Ewan McGregor. Indie darling emerged as a pseudo-box office draw but never to appear as an Oscar nominee. It's just my opinion based on the coverage of the two this year that McAvoy's chances are better than Hirsch's.

[Mister Tee]

I could hem and haw and say I thought of Foster's Taxi Driver nod as "teenage'' rather than "child", but the fact is, I simply forgot about her. The perils of making pronouncements without doing full research. Let's amend to say a Ronan reappearance for Lovely Bones, while she's still at youth level, would be unprecedented.

BJ, I'm not sure I agree about Depp needing only a Brockovich, but perhaps it's a matter of semantics. I saw Roberts as a star/not so much actress, and Brockovich as a vehicle that was sort of Julia Roberts-plus -- just enough extra that people seized upon it as surely their best opportunity to honor an industry stalwart. Depp, on the other hand, I see as an actor who's accidentally achieved stardom, and I think he'll need a truly strong performance to win. (By the way, not to reopen the Sweeney debate -- it had been so over-argued by the time I saw it that I never commented on it -- but I'm with Magilla that it's the best of Depp's three nods)

I considered Hirsch along with McAvoy, but I reasoned that failure to score for such a central if not dominant role this year was a bad sign.

rainbard, I read about The Soloist at Tapley's and Feinberg's sites, and it sounds excruciating -- which of course doesn't exclude it from Academy consideration (it should be right up the Beautiful Mind crowd's alley). As for Wright himself, I look at it that Atonement survived as a best picture prospect in spite of Wright rather than because of him, so I'm dubious he'll make it with future projects. But it could happen.

FilmFan, I've been anticipating a Burton breakthrough at the Oscars for well over a decade. But since he couldn't make it this year -- his film's trajectory was like Spike Lee's in the Malcolm X year, going from presumptive picture/director candidate to barely mentioned in the nominations -- I have to be pessimistic for the future.

BJ, of course I saw Big Fish; didn't realize Cotillard was in it. Nine is certainly an opportunity for her. I guess my evaluation of her prospects based on 40 years of watching European actresses have one native-language triumph and then coming to Hollywood to make one undistinguished film after another.

I haven't saved whole threads, so I can't say what the general take was on Amy Adams two years ago -- but I can admit, having re-read my saved post, that I was clearly leaning toward one-hit wonder...a position I'd emphatically not take today.

[Precious Doll]

I think Hirsch's chances are diminished by doing Speed Racer. I'm pretty sure that he's headed the way of Ryan Philippe, not Ryan Gosling.

I think McAvoy's more likely to pick up a nod before Paul Dano who couldn't even manage a nomination for an Oscar baity role.

The same could be said for James McAvoy whose next release is an action flick called Wanted co-starring Angelina Jolie. See the trailer and weep.

[flipp525]

I think McAvoy's more likely to pick up a nod before Paul Dano who couldn't even manage a nomination for an Oscar baity role.

This was an extremely competitive year for supporting actors. I don't think his failure to secure a nomination foretells an inability to win favor with the Academy in the future. Just being mentioned alongside the likes of Bardem, Affleck, Holbrook, Bosco, Hoffman, Wilkinson, Finney and Jones is an honor.

On the other hand, with the continued string of appearances in Best Picture nominees, he could go the way of John Cazale and remain nomination-less.

I didn't particularly care for Dano's performance in There Will Be Blood. It was serviceable, but nothing revelatory in my book. I happened to hate the character, too, but that's beside the point.



Edited By flipp525 on 1204398515

[OscarGuy]

I think Hirsch's chances are diminished by doing Speed Racer. I'm pretty sure that he's headed the way of Ryan Philippe, not Ryan Gosling.

I think McAvoy's more likely to pick up a nod before Paul Dano who couldn't even manage a nomination for an Oscar baity role.

[MovieWes]

I actually think that Paul Dano will be nominated before McAvoy or Hirsch. He's been one of the more interesting up-and-comers of the past few years and has appeared in two Best Picture nominees two years in a row.

[FilmFan720]

Bonus round wise, while I think James McAvoy will be the next with a nomination, don't count out Emile Hirsch, who could be at the Oscars if he continues to get interesting roles like Into the Wild. And while he isn't in the nature of the game exactly, Tim Burton will be there some day.

[MovieWes]

Saoirse Ronan...The history of child nominees is a bleak one -- as in, no one has ever come back a second time (unless you stretch "child" to include Natalie Wood or Sal Mineo's teenaged performances).

Umm... Jodie Foster in "Taxi Driver"?

EDIT: Didn't notice that someone else had brought this up. Nevermind.

By the way, in answer to The Original BJ's question, she was 13 when she acted in "Taxi Driver" and 14 when she received the nomination.



Edited By MovieWes on 1204392765

[rain Bard]

I wouldn't be so surprised to see Jason Reitman nominated again one of these years; he's young enough and connected enough to keep getting projects that catch industry attention. It may be a while before he develops a style and personality as director, but though we're currently in a streak of directors-with-personality winning this award, that could conceivably end at any time.

And I might submit for a bonus round pick: Joe Wright, who may not be an auteurist's favorite yet either, but has the early earmarks of an Academy-friendly career, and if he keeps on such a track I don't think it'll be too long before one of his films actually nabs him a directing nomination. Perhaps the Soloist will do it.

[The Original BJ]

At this point I think it's VERY likely that Johnny Depp will win a trophy. He seems to have the perfect combination of artistic cred (ironically, from many of those earlier projects) and now super-stardom that will get him to the stage -- relatively soon, I think. Forget a Mystic River; all he needs is an Erin Brockovich.

Tee, I bet you have seen Marion Cotillard in English -- in Big Fish. It was a pretty thankless role, so I'm not sure it's the best test of her language, but I thought she acquitted herself nicely. In any event, Nine might be the test case for whether she can transition to major roles stateside, or if she sticks to French films.

How old was Jodie Foster in Taxi Driver? I bet in '77 no one thought she'd come back to win two Best Actress trophies. I'm not saying Saoirse Ronan will do it, but she seems intelligent and serious enough as a performer at her age that I'd never say never. (Of recent young actress nominees, I'd rate her chances FAR higher than Abigail Breslin and Keisha Castle-Who?)

I knew you'd pick James McAvoy, and rightly so. I think he'll be around for a while, in projects of consistently high quality, and will score a nomination in the next few years.

I'd be interested to see what we all thought of Amy Adams's return chances last time around. In '06, it seemed to me like Junebug could very well have been a one-shot deal. But now I'd be shocked if she didn't score another nomination in the near future.

[Big Magilla]

Actually I said Depp "might" be played out. He's always come along with an interesting performance just when you think he's about through - Edward Scissorhands, What's Eating Gilbert Grape, Ed Wood - and I was one of those who thought he might actually have deserved a nomination for Sweeney Todd. It was the best of his three nominated performances, though there were others who desrved a nomination more - Emile Hirsch, James McAvoy, Benicio Del Toro.

I really have no idea who'll be back and who won't other than I agree Holbrook's nomination was likely it for him. Dee, if nothing comes of the four films she's in this year, forget it. Christe, though, I wouldn't write off quite yet. Sarah Polley might just have another great character in mind for her.

[Mister Tee]

Well, I hope to reward the patience of dws and flipp, who had kind words for my annual effort. Sorry for the delay -- a long and crazy week, both pre- and post-Oscar. But I have to say, even with my best attempt, I couldn't have begun as you guys did, barely an hour after the show's end. I view this discussion as part of the withdrawal process -- the methadone, as it were. When you guys kicked it off, my buzz hadn't even peaked yet.

So...to the issue at hand.

Johnny Depp...Magilla, all respect as always, but saying you think Depp is done at the Oscars is, I think, letting your feeling overwhelm analysis. Depp has scored three nominations in five years, not one of them sure things -- I'd say that connotes a level of popularity with the Academy similar to that of Sean Penn after his Sweet and Lowdown/I Am Sam nods. This isn't to say Depp is guaranteed a trip to the podium -- Mystic River's don't come along in all careers. But if Depp finds a role of comparable quality, I think he'll win by acclamation.

Viggo Mortensen...the only other to-date non-winner in the category. There's a superficial similarity to Harrison Ford's Witness nomination: the star of a high-grossing fantasy series does something more serious and receives acknowledgement. The difference is, Mortensen (who, oddly, appeared in Witness) is a notably better actor -- and arguably deserved a nomination even more two years ago. I'd still say he's an iffy bet to return -- his choice of projects is spotty -- but I'm open to being surprised.

Tommy Lee Jones...on our radar three decades or more, and finally a best actor nod, in perhaps the best overall year of his career. Can he follow it up? I'd say his character-actor status makes him more likely to get notice in supporting, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up again in the years just ahead...with a second supporting trophy a possibility.

George Clooney...probably, along with Will Smith, the person who most comfortably straddles actor and movie star in the current environment. When he's in his Michael Clayton mode (serious, 70s-style entertainments), he can likely score more acting nods. I'm still more interested in where he goes as a director (though the upcoming Leatherheads seems like a vacation from seriousness that probably won't go anywhere).

Daniel Day-Lewis...Day-Lewis has become to acting what Kubrick was to directing in his later decades: he'll work seldom, but each project will automatically rate Oscar consideration. I see no reason to doubt he'll accumulate more nominations for some of those efforts. He's already defied precedent by becoming the first Brit to win best actor twice; barring something revelatory, his wins are likely to stop there.

Laura Linney...Linney has three nominations now, and the total gross of the films involved is short of what Vantage Point achieved last weekend. There's obviously good will toward her, but she needs to be in something people SEE. I'm not talking Walk the Line/Million Dollar Baby level of success -- but something in the range of The Queen/The Hours. I'll be rooting for her.

Ellen Page...I'm at a disadvantage, having seen her in nothing beyond Juno -- perhaps, had I seen Hard Candy, I'd marvel at her range (or hate her for having been in it, as dws seems to do). All I can see at the moment is a likable, evidently bright actress whose future career will depend on her choice of projects. Check back with me in a few years for a fuller evaluation.

Julie Christie...Since she was a winner all those years ago for Darling, this wasn't make-or-break in the usual sense for Christie -- she's in the books regardless. But we must, sadly, acknowledge that this was probably as close as she'll ever get to winning again. She doesn't work that much, the shortage of roles for aging actresses hs been widely documented, and, truly, what are the chances of her hitting such glorious notes another time? I think this was easily the performance of her career, and it's hard to imagine her topping it this late in life.

Cate Blanchett...Though she now has detractors here, out in the wide world Blanchett seems to be viewed as the Streep of the new millenium. It's hard to even recall all those post-Elizabeth years, when she seemed to be touted every year and continually fall short of nomination. Now, she's picked up four nods in four years, and has more high-profile projects scheduled than you can imagine. First bold prediction of the thread: Blanchett will win a top-level actress prize in the next half-dozen years.

Marion Cotillard...I've seen her in nothing beyond La Vie and Long Engagement, so I have no idea how good her English is -- no doubt a large factor in whether she comes back tothe Oscars. My instinct is, this was her one shot at Hollywood glory, and her remaining, possibly long career will be in French films.

Tom Wilkinson...Even though I think Wilkinson's In the Bedroom performance was exponentially superior to this year's effort, if he returns, it's more likely to be in this (supporting) category. He seems to be broadly popular with Hollywood directors right now, so I can see him coming up with another, perhaps better shot in the coming years.

Hal Holbrook...Long a wonderful actor, so you can't rule him out entirely, but...come on: 82 years old? It's almost certain this was his career tribute, and he should revel in it.

Casey Affleck...As impressed as I was by Affleck's double-barrelled entry this year, I'm wobbly on whether he'll be back. Robert Ford seemed such a perfect fit for Affleck's quavery voice...not even Patrick Kenzie seemed as natural a fit. I like the guy, and would love to see him return, but it's possible this was his peak.

Philip Seymour Hoffman...A small argument that these annual reviews have some value: my contention after Hoffman won in '05 was that, if he returned, it would likely be in the supporting category -- ding-ding-ding! Actually, he probably had a shot at the double-nod this year, for The Savages, and continues to get juicy roles. So, to the chagrin of many here, I believe he'll be appearing on these lists for a decade or mor to come.

Javier Bardem...A splendid actor; perhaps Nine will make him a truly international star. I see a strong career regardless, and expect to see him here again. Another win? Doubtful.

Amy Ryan...Her Broadway and TV background make it clear she's no one-performance wonder -- but the vagaries of modern Hollywood could leave her a one-time Oscar nominee. I'd say it's important for her to avoid endless replays of the Gone Baby Gone character (something unimaginative directors will likely point her toward). I can't wait to see what she does next...though it's hard to imagine her topping this.

Ruby Dee...What I said about Hal Holbrook, only add in the paucity of roles for aging black actresses. Again, I'd assume this was the career salute, not likely to be repeated.

Saoirse Ronan...The history of child nominees is a bleak one -- as in, no one has ever come back a second time (unless you stretch "child" to include Natalie Wood or Sal Mineo's teenaged performances). Then again, no nominated child has ever had a role like Ronan's in The Lovely Bones coming up so quickly (the closest precedent would be Mary Badham's This Property is Condemned effort). I still bet against her, but it'll be interesting to watch.

Tilda Swinton...I'm not sure what this award will do for Swinton's career. I can't see it turning her into a paycheck-whore, and her continued indie efforts are unlikely to get much more Oscar notice than they have in the past. However...she may have moved slightly up the food chain, now able to get solid character roles previously off-limits by Hollywood casting rules, and those parts might bring her back for future nominations. A second win would have to be a million-to-one shot.

Jason Reitman...Speaking of million-to-one shots -- if he turns up as a directing nominee again, I'll be stunned.

Tony Gilroy...Gilroy, on the other hand, is quite liable to return -- as a writing nominee. He's one of the few mainstream/intelligent screenwriters out there, and should reap further nods. I don't see him as an exceptional director, but it's not out of the question he can get another generous nod at some point for simply putting together a grown-up project a la Clayton.

Julian Schnabel...Though I wasn't over the moon about Diving Bell, I like Schnabel's work, and wouldn't be surprised to see him turn up again. I wonder, though: does he plan to do anything but biographies?

Paul Thomas Anderson...Finally, a breakthrough to the directing big leagues. He's so ambitious, so (in the view of many of us) accomplished, and still so young, that it's impossible to imagine him not returning to this slate. Bold prediction number two: Anderson will win best director within the decade.

The Coens...With all my heart I assumed Fargo was their only Oscar shot, so you probably shouldn't listen to any prediction I make. Was this vague feint toward the mainstream a sign of things to come, or a one-off? Offhand, I'd say they're more likely to pick up additional writing nominations than ones for directing...but your guess is as good as mine.

Finally, the bonus round: Pick the year's disappointed-nomination-hopeful most likely to come back with an actual nod in the near-future. (I hit it lucky with this the first time out, nailing Patricia Clarkson a year ahead, but since have sputtered with Paul Bettany, Peter Sarsgaard, Maria Bello and Emily Blunt) My first inclination is, Amy Adams...except, of course, she already HAS a nomination. The easy pick might be Frank Langella -- widely bruited this year, and a hot prospect for recreating his Frost/Nixon role. But a veteran like Langella is not really in the spirit of the round. So I'll say James McAvoy. It seems to me he, more than anyone else, was responsible for selling Atonement; he's getting cast in a wide variety of projects; and his cock-of- the-walk appearance the other night suggests he's settled in for a long Hollywood run.

So, now, I await the counter-arguments.

[flipp525]

Yeah, this is totally Mister Tee's thing.