PGA, DGA and WGA predictions

[Sabin]

Sabin wrote
Just a little hunch I can't quite let go of... I think House of Gucci could really have a second life starting tomorrow.

Or not.

[Sabin]

Just a little hunch I can't quite let go of... I think House of Gucci could really have a second life starting tomorrow. At the very least, the appearance of one. After watching the film months ago, I just remember thinking "Yeah, this could be a thing." Following its shut out at the Golden Globes, it just felt done, but I'm not sure if it is.

Considering the round of exclusions at the WGA, it could easily end up with an adapted screenplay nomination.

It seems like the kind of thing that might make the PGA's final lineup of ten. It's a big Hollywood production and a modest enough hit. They like those.

The Eddies are a question mark. It's certainly not helped by an overcrowding of the Drama category (do we know if it's a drama even?) but looking at the competition... Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story seem fairly locked in. What's House of Gucci up against? King Richard? CODA? The Lost Daughter? Tick, Tick... Boom! It's got a chance.

And finally, the DGA. I also think we're underrating Ridley Scott's chances. He's got four DGA nominations under his belt plus a recent Lifetime Achievement Award keeps him in voters' minds. He had two movies come out recently. House of Gucci was fairly successful. But the biggest issue is I'm not sure if the DGA is Paul Thomas Anderson's turf. I think Ridley Scott or Adam McKay might have more of an inside track.

[dws1982]

Maybe it will come out that the Comedy/Musical category has been changed to just Comedy and musicals compete as comedies or dramas based on whether their content is deemed comic or dramatic? I have no idea. (I also kind of doubt that's the case, because I would expect tick...tick...Boom to be in Drama as well if that were the case.)

If the studios are deciding, it seems like an unforced error on the part of Fox/Disney, because West Side Story probably would've won the Comedy/Musical award easily and I would bet on Dune taking the Dramatic prize.

[Mister Tee]

Yeah someone on Twitter (who almost always knows his stuff) says that he got confirmation from ACE that West Side Story and Cyrano are both on their list as being in the Drama category and not in the Comedy/Musical category. I'm not sure if studios or the guilds make these determinations.

The other two big musicals, tick...tick...Boom! and In the Heights are both eligible in the Comedy/Musical category.

Edit: Apparently In the Heights is in Drama too.

Utterly absurd. West Side Story has been a musical since its 1957 Broadway opening; to re-christen it now only points up awards absurdity.

It does, however, make it even easier for Licorice Pizza to get an ACE nomination.

[dws1982]

Yeah someone on Twitter (who almost always knows his stuff) says that he got confirmation from ACE that West Side Story and Cyrano are both on their list as being in the Drama category and not in the Comedy/Musical category. I'm not sure if studios or the guilds make these determinations.

The other two big musicals, tick...tick...Boom! and In the Heights are both eligible in the Comedy/Musical category.

Edit: Apparently In the Heights is in Drama too.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
ACE announces tomorrow, and it's worth mentioning that in a divergence from the normal pattern, both West Side Story (which probably will be nominated) and Cyrano (which probably won't) are eligible in the Drama category.

What?

[dws1982]

ACE announces tomorrow, and it's worth mentioning that in a divergence from the normal pattern, both West Side Story (which probably will be nominated) and Cyrano (which probably won't) are eligible in the Drama category.

[Big Magilla]

Those old fogies at the NBR who voted for Licorice Pizza remind me of the old fogies at the Daily News and others in 1970 who gave rave reviews to Getting Straight which they thought was a good representation of the youth culture after dissing Easy Rider the year before. They were just trying to be hip.

Licorice Pizz has won numerous awards since NBR, but Best Director hasn't been one of them unless I missed something.

So, while PTA is a presumptive favorite for his second DGA nomination, he's probably on more solid ground for both the PGA and WGA.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
I think that's a pretty fair summation of where it landed in overall critical evaluation. The problem it had was, the decision of critics to go close to monolithically for one of those first two -- Dog at an astonishing percentage of the regional groups, Car across the board at the elite societies. Licorice Pizza did win half a dozen prizes (including NBR), but its only arguably-near-top-tier spot was Toronto, and that came out too late to much matter.

So, shorter: you're right; the fact that the film didn't show any dominance in critics' groups (except under screenplay) has let other, less-well-reviewed films, get more push that could translate into greater Oscar showings.

You're right. I think the reason why Licorice Pizza is being underestimated by a lot of Oscar prognosticators, myself included (although to be fair, I am predicting it) is because it doesn't feel like it has had much of a presence this awards season. It's normally the kind of film that would need to win a lot of awards to stay in the conversation, but that didn't happen. I also have no idea if it's a hit or a flop... but to be fair, I have no idea if anything is a hit or a flop these days. There's no metrics by which to judge it. It got the exact same nominations as Don't Look Up did at the Golden Globes and lost all of them to West Side Story, another film that everyone's pretty shaky about.

But Don't Look Up has metrics we can assess. It was a hit by Netflix standards and it's apparently a bigger hit with audiences than critics. Even Adam McKay taking to twitter to discuss this film *FEELS* like a presence. None of which mean anything on Oscar nomination morning, but I suspect that a lot of bloggers are thrown off by what's clearly a rapidly shifting industry.

That being said, it's not entirely true that Licorice Pizza didn't win anything this season. It actually won the first one right out of the gate. Those old fogies The National Board of Review gave it Best Picture and Best Director. I had completely forgotten about them. This award came out so long ago, A Hero was the clear frontrunner for Best International Film. Drive My Car wasn't anywhere on it.

[Big Magilla]

The Online Film Critics Society may be representative of what their members like, but it doesn't exactly provide much of a barometer for predicting PGA, DGA, or WGA nominations, let alone Oscar nominations.

These were last year's picks:

Best Picture
1. Nomadland
2. Da 5 Bloods
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
5. First Cow
6. Minari
7. Sound of Metal
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Soul
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Eliza Hittman – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
Kelly Reichardt – First Cow
*Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Best Original Screenplay
Da 5 Bloods – Danny Bilson, Paul Demeo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
Never Rarely Sometimes Always – Eliza Hittman
*Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

Best Adapted Screenplay
First Cow – Jonathan Raymond, Kelly Reichardt
I’m Thinking of Ending Things – Charlie Kaufman
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ruben Santiago-Hudson
*Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami – Kemp Powers

[Mister Tee]

If West Side Story has a tinge of failure around it, I can't help but feel as though Licorice Pizza has faded away a bit. REPEAT: I am glad that our wise and esteemed film critics do not use their bully pulpit to forecast the Academy Awards. But I also can't shake the feeling that a film like Licorice Pizza might have been helped a bit from PTA's good old friends at LAFCA. I was surprised to see it show up at the Art Directors Guild but not the Costume Designers Guild.

To address this specifically (in conjunction with my post below): Oscar Guy's Online Film Critics' Society results yesterday showed Licorice Pizza third-best of the year, behind The Power of the Dog and Drive My Car. I think that's a pretty fair summation of where it landed in overall critical evaluation. The problem it had was, the decision of critics to go close to monolithically for one of those first two -- Dog at an astonishing percentage of the regional groups, Car across the board at the elite societies. Licorice Pizza did win half a dozen prizes (including NBR), but its only arguably-near-top-tier spot was Toronto, and that came out too late to much matter.

So, shorter: you're right; the fact that the film didn't show any dominance in critics' groups (except under screenplay) has let other, less-well-reviewed films, get more push that could translate into greater Oscar showings.

[Mister Tee]

Every year, you have to advise people how different the directors' branch of AMPAS is from the DGA -- you shouldn't expect them to repeat exactly -- but the obverse is also true. You don't go looking for out-there selections from the DGA. It's a huge, TV-director-dominated union; they're most likely going to give you the perceived top five in the race. If something seemingly oddball slips in -- say, Hamaguchi -- you can pretty much bank on an Oscar nomination to follow.

But that's not the way to bet. anonymous' list is what I view to be the top five. Campion is clearly in as front-runner. Villeneuve is the closest to a big-Hollywood effort with class, and will have huge support. Never bet against Spielberg here; his 7 Oscar nods were all preceded by DGA citations, and he has 4 additional that weren't echoed by AMPAS (Jaws, Color Purple, Empire of the Sun, Amistad). Branagh has never been nominated here, but seems too comfortable a pick for them to pass up.

The only one about which people seem iffy is Paul Thomas Anderson, which may arise from the fact that he's not done all that well with DGA in the past -- There Will Be Blood is his only previous mention. But there's also something of an uncanny level of resistance to his film among bloggers. Nate Rogers has Licorice Pizza ranked 8th on his likely best picture roster -- behind King Richard, Don't Look Up and CODA -- which I think is just silly. The film has had quite broad support, from the Broadcasters and Globe nominations, and it truly kicked ass on the BAFTA long-list. Once it got past the first few regional groups, where screener availability was an issue, it turned up on virtually all nomination lists, and won a bunch of screenplay awards. Its only real miss was SAG ensemble, and I think that can be chalked up to utter lack of star-power: the film is the anti-Don't Look Up/House of Gucci; dominated by unknowns and newcomers, with its only recognizable names appearing in cameos (one of whom got a SAG nomination for a 9-minute role).

I expect the film to run the table with nominations tomorrow (helped by the fact it's a comedy at ACE). If it fails at any of the four guilds, then I'll consider revising my opinion. But I think it has broad enough support to display clear top-five level performance, which should put it onto the DGA list.

[Big Magilla]

PGA is probably accurate, but I'll take Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley over PTA at the DGA, and the ineligible Mass over any of the predicted nominees for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA.

[Sabin]

Well, the race is going to come a lot more into focus tomorrow. The Eddie nominations might have helped beforehand but perhaps not.

For a moment, the obvious nominees for the DGA have been Paul Thomas Anderson, Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve. Do I feel confident in those predictions? No, but I feel less confident in their competition.

As Tee wrote, almost all of them have failed to show up as a frontrunner somewhere.

Dune has done fine across the board. It didn't end up with a SAG Ensemble nomination but it's one of the only big budget hits of the year and it's destined to be a down ballot juggernaut.

Our two front-runners, The Power of the Dog and Belfast failed to show up in the Costume Designer's Guild and the Art Director's Guild. Those seem to cause bigger concern than The Power of the Dog missing out on a SAG Ensemble nomination (or Belfast's Cinema Audio Guild). I'm not surprised that they didn't show up for either one. Production design and costume design aren't those films biggest achievements. The biggest problem might be when everyone is voting in their ballots if the art directors and costume designers favor other films most highly in the Best Picture ballot.

To me, the biggest issue with these nominations

What's more troubling is West Side Story missing out on an ASC nomination. It's worth noting that this group doesn't seem to love Janusz Kaminski. He's been nominated a few times but he's never won. That seems insane. There's also just a lingering sense that West Side Story has a tinge of failure around it, which is not a good thing.

If West Side Story has a tinge of failure around it, I can't help but feel as though Licorice Pizza has faded away a bit. REPEAT: I am glad that our wise and esteemed film critics do not use their bully pulpit to forecast the Academy Awards. But I also can't shake the feeling that a film like Licorice Pizza might have been helped a bit from PTA's good old friends at LAFCA. I was surprised to see it show up at the Art Directors Guild but not the Costume Designers Guild.

But if not Paul Thomas Anderson, then who?

I won't rattle off pros and cons of each one. I'll just say Adam McKay has two previous nominations. Don't Look Up has its fans and I just have to imagine a lot of industry support. If not Spielberg or Anderson, my hunch would be McKay.

[Reza]

I hope there is the delightful surprise of both Denis Villenueve and Steven Spielberg not being nominated for the Oscar.