I think I figured out how we got Nicole Kidman's win for Best Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama wrong...
- Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Sole nominee. She won't get it.
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Sole nominee. She won't get it.
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Also nominee for Best Director. She just won. But maybe?
- Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Sole nominee. It's her time.
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Her film is up for the most awards in this category (Best Actor and Screenplay), she's been nominated for seventeen Golden Globes, twelve for film, five for television, and has previously won five, a sixth one would make her one of the rare actors to win this award across four decades... but nah she won't get it.*
*Nicole Kidman can always get it from this crowd.
Anyway, so should we give Nicole Kidman the same benefit that we give The Power of the Dog and call her momentarily the frontrunner? Whether or not we like Being the Ricardos, she's doing everything required of her to win an Academy Award.
Golden Globe Winners
Re: Golden Globe Winners
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Re: Golden Globe Winners
Totally splitting hairs here but I don't think it can be called a surprise hit. It's basically Netflix's Oscar bait for the year. It did well.rolotomasi99 wrote
[The Power of the Dog] was a surprise hit for Netflix. Maybe not at the same level of DON'T LOOK UP, but it held its own for a dark, slow movie with minimal stars. Cumberbatch, Dunst, and Smit-McPhee may all be known from their Marvel roles, but no one would say they can draw large audiences to art house films. People were genuinely curious about this well reviewed film, and took the time over the holidays to watch it.
I mostly agree with you. I think The Power of the Dog should probably be considered the front-runner at this point. If a film wins Golden Globes for Best Picture and Director and seems poised to pick up double-digit nominations, it should probably get a week of front-runner status. A lot of films have had that week and gone onto lose (1917, La La Land, The Revenant, Boyhood) but more than a few haven't.rolotomasi99 wrote
I am not saying THE POWER OF THE DOG is definitely going to win. I still think the weighted ballot could help something like DUNE which has been seen by more people than any other contender. It has many fans who will put it at number one, and enough folks who enjoyed and admired the filmmaking to put it at number two or three. That could give it the edge to win Best Picture.
But you bring up a good point about the weighted ballot and it's something that I've been thinking about. I don't know how that thing is going to shake out this year. I personally don't think that Dune is going to be the beneficiary of a weighted ballot but it is going to show up in pretty much every down ballot category which can't hurt it. The thing I wonder about is whether or not The Power of the Dog is the most generally liked film on the ballot.
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rolotomasi99
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Re: Golden Globe Winners
Good analysis in general Mister Tee, but I have to strongly disagree with your assertion THE POWER OF THE DOG was a flop:Mister Tee wrote:Look over the roster of winning films -- except for Dune and No Time to Die, it's a bunch of movies that either barely had theatrical presence (and haven't been killing it in streaming) -- Ricardos, Power of the Dog, tick...tick...Boom! -- or outright flopped in release -- West Side Story, Belfast, King Richard. It's hard to detect real enthusiasm for any of these.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235070896/
It was a surprise hit for Netflix. Maybe not at the same level of DON'T LOOK UP, but it held its own for a dark, slow movie with minimal stars. Cumberbatch, Dunst, and Smit-McPhee may all be known from their Marvel roles, but no one would say they can draw large audiences to art house films. People were genuinely curious about this well reviewed film, and took the time over the holidays to watch it.
Now, the IMDB score is relatively low, so this is not an overwhelmingly beloved film from the more mainstream crowd. However, half the battle is getting folks to even see your film. Compare the 69k votes for THE POWER OF THE DOG vs the 14k for BELFAST. Even if folks enjoy the latter film at a higher rate, the sheer number of voters who have seen the former film may put it at the top of more ballots.
I am not saying THE POWER OF THE DOG is definitely going to win. I still think the weighted ballot could help something like DUNE which has been seen by more people than any other contender. It has many fans who will put it at number one, and enough folks who enjoyed and admired the filmmaking to put it at number two or three. That could give it the edge to win Best Picture.
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Re: Golden Globe Winners
If an unimpressive movie year yields a boring Oscar contest, it'll be hard to keep interest alive. It's too soon to judge conclusively if that's the case -- AMPAS' night is 2 1/2 months away, time for lots of turns of the wheel -- but, outside of one category, the Globes tonight did nothing to liven things up.
Look over the roster of winning films -- except for Dune and No Time to Die, it's a bunch of movies that either barely had theatrical presence (and haven't been killing it in streaming) -- Ricardos, Power of the Dog, tick...tick...Boom! -- or outright flopped in release -- West Side Story, Belfast, King Richard. It's hard to detect real enthusiasm for any of these. Worse, except for drama actress, it was a dictation-from-bloggers night: the kids at Awards Watch pretty much aced the ballot just from following consensus. A consensus THEY developed.
The question now is, do the actually-on-TV-this-year groups -- especially the Broadcasters -- follow the Globe lead? Or will they feel the need to distance themselves in this year we're supposed to be ignoring the Foreign Press? I feel like, some recent years, races have had juice drained from them because the Broadcasters have aped the Globes and set SAG/BAFTA up to do the same. (The Awards Watch kids are already chanting "(DeBose/Smit-McPhee/Smith) will sweep", meaning the TV awards will all follow suit.) But it doesn't have to be so (I'd definitely bet against it in drama actress). It would have been interesting if the Broadcasters had, as originally planned, announced their results today, as well -- it would have guaranteed a more honest vote. But now, if they want to distinguish themselves, they kind of need to go different directions.
To specific categories:
Will Smith is certainly not the juggernaut many expected after the Fall festivals, but he had enough star-pull to win here -- meaning Benedict Cumberbatch is also not enough of a juggernaut to elbow Smith aside the way Forest Whitaker did Peter O'Toole in 2006. I think either man is a possibility for AMPAS (Cumberbatch seems very likely to win BAFTA, at least, which would keep him in the race). But I don't think either performance evokes deep feelings from voters; the choice would be more perfunctory (if not not grudging). It's always a mistake to let one's feelings influence prediction, but I feel like Reza's suggestion -- an Andrew Garfield upset -- is not beyond the pale: I've heard people express more genuine enthusiasm over his work than over that of the supposed front-runners.
My instinct was that best actress would be a mess, and tonight's results confirmed that. I'm not surprised Stewart was unable to win here; her film has not succeeded with audiences, and the HFPA has always been closer to audiences than critics. But I definitely didn't expect Kidman to be the substitute. To address the Sabin/okri debate over how to rate this year's best actress field: I think it's a strong field in terms of performances -- there are well more than five who deserve nomination -- but a wobbly one in terms of any logical choice to win. I doubt tonight made any progress in resolving that; I truly can't envision Kidman winning a second best actress prize for THAT...I even think it's possible she was a Jodie Foster-like punt, that will seem capricious in retrospect. In fact, I wonder if both tonight's best actress winners might be left off the AMPAS ballot next month -- something that I believe hasn't happened since the 1998 best actor race.
Kodi Smit-McPhee doesn't seem like a natural Oscar winner -- it's a (rightly) fairly cold performance -- but somebody has to step up to challenge him, and this was favorable turf for the old-guy candidate (Hinds or Kotsur) to make his play. If Smit-McPhee wins the Broadcasters, he might become unstoppable.
Ariana DeBose might be well on her way, as well. She's already been promoted as the front-runner; she seems a real Broadcasters and SAG kind of choice; BAFTA might in years past have presented a barrier, but given their strenuous attempts to display commitment to diversity, it could be awkward for them to do that this year. I confess I don't see her inevitability, but it may be I just don't respond to certain musical performances -- I never saw the appeal of Catherine Zeta-Jones, either, and she romped to victory.
I guess my main thing about the acting categories is, except for maybe DeBose, I can't see voters getting excited about marking ballots for any of them. Last year, though I'll always believe Nomadland was a "well, something has to win" choice, the four acting winners gave genuine pleasure to many voters (and some losers -- Boseman, Mulligan, Viola -- did as well). This is what allows me to think races remain unsettled, as voters let their own enthusiasms dictate their votes.
The Awards Watch gang is also convinced a Branagh screenwriting win for Belfast is a sure thing after tonight. But relying on the HFPA as barometer on Paul Thomas Anderson is folly. This screenplay nomination tonight was, incredibly, his first individual nomination from them -- no other writing, no directing citations over his 25 year career. AMPAS has of course cited him way more often over that time, and I say the original screenplay prize will be very competitive.
As for Power of the Dog -- it proved it could win in a populist group, which is a pretty big deal for an art film. And it demonstrated that Belfast isn't the vote-grabber expected. But, early days. This is a good sign, but not definitive. Campion, however, is in Alfonso Cuaron/Chloe Zhao territory: you can't dominate critics' awards like that and win the Globe and not become the heavy favorite for the directing Oscar.
What else? The critics probably made the Drive My Car win possible; a month ago, it didn't seem a Foreign Press choice at all. It now seems well on its way to the International Oscar, at least. Encanto didn't have to compete with The Mitchells, but it established itself as Disney's top contender. Dune is certainly in the running for score, but Jonny Greenwood might do better at AMPAS (especially if his film is best picture). And Billie Eilish is winning an Oscar, largely for being Billie Eilish, much like Adele did.
ON EDIT: If you were following this by HFPA's Twitter account 1) you were behind those who stuck to their web site, which updated much faster and 2) you were treated to the prose stylings of a truly ludicrous person, who topped him/herself with this one when West Side Story won comedy/musical film: "If laughter is the best medicine @WestSideMovie is the cure for what ails you. Congrats on the #GoldenGlobe for Best Picture — Musical/Comedy."
Yes: that laugh-riot West Side Story.
Look over the roster of winning films -- except for Dune and No Time to Die, it's a bunch of movies that either barely had theatrical presence (and haven't been killing it in streaming) -- Ricardos, Power of the Dog, tick...tick...Boom! -- or outright flopped in release -- West Side Story, Belfast, King Richard. It's hard to detect real enthusiasm for any of these. Worse, except for drama actress, it was a dictation-from-bloggers night: the kids at Awards Watch pretty much aced the ballot just from following consensus. A consensus THEY developed.
The question now is, do the actually-on-TV-this-year groups -- especially the Broadcasters -- follow the Globe lead? Or will they feel the need to distance themselves in this year we're supposed to be ignoring the Foreign Press? I feel like, some recent years, races have had juice drained from them because the Broadcasters have aped the Globes and set SAG/BAFTA up to do the same. (The Awards Watch kids are already chanting "(DeBose/Smit-McPhee/Smith) will sweep", meaning the TV awards will all follow suit.) But it doesn't have to be so (I'd definitely bet against it in drama actress). It would have been interesting if the Broadcasters had, as originally planned, announced their results today, as well -- it would have guaranteed a more honest vote. But now, if they want to distinguish themselves, they kind of need to go different directions.
To specific categories:
Will Smith is certainly not the juggernaut many expected after the Fall festivals, but he had enough star-pull to win here -- meaning Benedict Cumberbatch is also not enough of a juggernaut to elbow Smith aside the way Forest Whitaker did Peter O'Toole in 2006. I think either man is a possibility for AMPAS (Cumberbatch seems very likely to win BAFTA, at least, which would keep him in the race). But I don't think either performance evokes deep feelings from voters; the choice would be more perfunctory (if not not grudging). It's always a mistake to let one's feelings influence prediction, but I feel like Reza's suggestion -- an Andrew Garfield upset -- is not beyond the pale: I've heard people express more genuine enthusiasm over his work than over that of the supposed front-runners.
My instinct was that best actress would be a mess, and tonight's results confirmed that. I'm not surprised Stewart was unable to win here; her film has not succeeded with audiences, and the HFPA has always been closer to audiences than critics. But I definitely didn't expect Kidman to be the substitute. To address the Sabin/okri debate over how to rate this year's best actress field: I think it's a strong field in terms of performances -- there are well more than five who deserve nomination -- but a wobbly one in terms of any logical choice to win. I doubt tonight made any progress in resolving that; I truly can't envision Kidman winning a second best actress prize for THAT...I even think it's possible she was a Jodie Foster-like punt, that will seem capricious in retrospect. In fact, I wonder if both tonight's best actress winners might be left off the AMPAS ballot next month -- something that I believe hasn't happened since the 1998 best actor race.
Kodi Smit-McPhee doesn't seem like a natural Oscar winner -- it's a (rightly) fairly cold performance -- but somebody has to step up to challenge him, and this was favorable turf for the old-guy candidate (Hinds or Kotsur) to make his play. If Smit-McPhee wins the Broadcasters, he might become unstoppable.
Ariana DeBose might be well on her way, as well. She's already been promoted as the front-runner; she seems a real Broadcasters and SAG kind of choice; BAFTA might in years past have presented a barrier, but given their strenuous attempts to display commitment to diversity, it could be awkward for them to do that this year. I confess I don't see her inevitability, but it may be I just don't respond to certain musical performances -- I never saw the appeal of Catherine Zeta-Jones, either, and she romped to victory.
I guess my main thing about the acting categories is, except for maybe DeBose, I can't see voters getting excited about marking ballots for any of them. Last year, though I'll always believe Nomadland was a "well, something has to win" choice, the four acting winners gave genuine pleasure to many voters (and some losers -- Boseman, Mulligan, Viola -- did as well). This is what allows me to think races remain unsettled, as voters let their own enthusiasms dictate their votes.
The Awards Watch gang is also convinced a Branagh screenwriting win for Belfast is a sure thing after tonight. But relying on the HFPA as barometer on Paul Thomas Anderson is folly. This screenplay nomination tonight was, incredibly, his first individual nomination from them -- no other writing, no directing citations over his 25 year career. AMPAS has of course cited him way more often over that time, and I say the original screenplay prize will be very competitive.
As for Power of the Dog -- it proved it could win in a populist group, which is a pretty big deal for an art film. And it demonstrated that Belfast isn't the vote-grabber expected. But, early days. This is a good sign, but not definitive. Campion, however, is in Alfonso Cuaron/Chloe Zhao territory: you can't dominate critics' awards like that and win the Globe and not become the heavy favorite for the directing Oscar.
What else? The critics probably made the Drive My Car win possible; a month ago, it didn't seem a Foreign Press choice at all. It now seems well on its way to the International Oscar, at least. Encanto didn't have to compete with The Mitchells, but it established itself as Disney's top contender. Dune is certainly in the running for score, but Jonny Greenwood might do better at AMPAS (especially if his film is best picture). And Billie Eilish is winning an Oscar, largely for being Billie Eilish, much like Adele did.
ON EDIT: If you were following this by HFPA's Twitter account 1) you were behind those who stuck to their web site, which updated much faster and 2) you were treated to the prose stylings of a truly ludicrous person, who topped him/herself with this one when West Side Story won comedy/musical film: "If laughter is the best medicine @WestSideMovie is the cure for what ails you. Congrats on the #GoldenGlobe for Best Picture — Musical/Comedy."
Yes: that laugh-riot West Side Story.
Re: Golden Globe Winners
If Andrew Garfield wins the Oscar it will be an Adrien Brody moment. A shock but in hindsight maybe a welcome one.
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Re: Golden Globe Winners
Typical Golden Globe awards - a little this'a, a little that'a, with an emphasis on the latter.
The this'a - The Power of the Dog, Campion, Garfield, Smit-McPhee
The that'a - West Side Story, Smith, Kidman, Zegler, DeBose
The this'a - The Power of the Dog, Campion, Garfield, Smit-McPhee
The that'a - West Side Story, Smith, Kidman, Zegler, DeBose
Re: Golden Globe Winners
They're trying to do it like a normal show, tweeting "Our next winners will be presented by" and list some important person from various groups pertaining to diversity initiatives, charities, etc, as a good faith measure. Everyone on Twitter is just dunking on them, saying "I DON'T KNOW WHO THAT IS! WHO CARES? ARE YOU ALL AT DINNER TOGETHER? JUST POST THE WINNERS!"
For example:
"Imagination is the currency that sustains and propels the entertainment industries." -- Kyle Bowser, Senior Vice President, @NAACP @nhbureau
... Cool.
For example:
"Imagination is the currency that sustains and propels the entertainment industries." -- Kyle Bowser, Senior Vice President, @NAACP @nhbureau
... Cool.
"How's the despair?"
Golden Globe Winners
Best Motion Picture - Drama: THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: WEST SIDE STORY
Best Animated Film: ENCANTO
Best Non-English Language Film: DRIVE MY CAR
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama: Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK... BOOM!
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama: Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Director: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Screenplay: Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST
Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer, DUNE
Best Original Song: "No Time to Die," NO TIME TO DIE
3: The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
1: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Drive My Car, Dune, Encanto, King Richard, No Time to Die, Tick Tick... BOOM!
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: WEST SIDE STORY
Best Animated Film: ENCANTO
Best Non-English Language Film: DRIVE MY CAR
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama: Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK... BOOM!
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama: Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Director: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Best Screenplay: Kenneth Branagh, BELFAST
Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer, DUNE
Best Original Song: "No Time to Die," NO TIME TO DIE
3: The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
1: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Drive My Car, Dune, Encanto, King Richard, No Time to Die, Tick Tick... BOOM!
Last edited by Sabin on Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:44 pm, edited 25 times in total.
"How's the despair?"