National Society of Film Critics winners

[Big Magilla]

d) Magilla, are you referring to First Cow?

That's the one!

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
a) Is best actress that impressive, though? Last year? Absolutely - I think if you placed McDormand, Mulligan or Davis against Zelwegger, any of the three wipe the mat with her. But this year seems a little anemic, if I'm being honest. I am surprised at how many of the secondary critics Chastain is winning over, though (a whopping 3, with two runners-up citations)

I think the Best Actress field is incredibly strong. I just don't think there's a classically defined front-runner. I agree with you that McDormand, Mulligan, or Davis could wipe the floor with any of these nominees... but I personally prefer a lot of these contenders to all of them.

Okri wrote
Also, is it runner-ups or runners-up?

Runners-ups.

Okri wrote
b) re: Smith - I do wonder if the fact that I can only think of actresses who have had a similar career arc (Sandra Bullock, Julia Roberts) and not an actors that when on to win Oscars bodes poorly for him.

Actor vs. Movie Star.

Okri wrote
e) You know how Tee spent most of the 2008 Oscar season telling us The Dark Knight wasn't going to be nominated for best picture?

No. Did he do that? What did he think would get in fifth?

Okri wrote
I will say the extended voting season (how it should be, imo) undeniably helps because more people will see it, I just don't think enough voters are going to kick it up metaphorical pile. Heck, I'm not even convinced it's going to be nominated for foreign language film.

I think Drive My Car is a real longshot. I would not forecast it for a Best Picture nomination. Here's what I will say though and it's totally anecdotal. I've got this writer friend. I wouldn't remotely categorize him as indicative of the industry but he's generally got his finger on the pulse more so than I would think. All last year, he told me it was going to be Nomadland and he was right. He told me all Oscar season the year before, it was going to be Parasite. He refused to see Green Book but said it was going to be Green Book. He saw Drive My Car, said it was his favorite film of the year next to 9 Days and Spider-Man: No Way Home (I told you...) and he said he thinks if word gets around enough, it could do well.

I'm not saying it will. However, we've been complaining all Oscar season about how boring this race is. If we end up with Spider-Man: No Way Home and Drive My Car nominated for Best Picture...

Okri wrote
f) Honestly, I think if the major critics awards went for Keaton in a bigger way (instead of Spall and Hardy), he could've beaten Redmayne.

I'm inclined to say "Nah..." but as I look back: Keaton was runners ups at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, didn't place at the National Society of Film Critics, and we have no way of knowing the balloting at the New York Film Critics. I guess it's possible considering that Birdman came in runners ups in a few places instead of totally blocked out like I misremembered (and won Best Cinematography) but I'm inclined to stick with my "Nah."

[Okri]

a) Is best actress that impressive, though? Last year? Absolutely - I think if you placed McDormand, Mulligan or Davis against Zelwegger, any of the three wipe the mat with her. But this year seems a little anemic, if I'm being honest. I am surprised at how many of the secondary critics Chastain is winning over, though (a whopping 3, with two runners-up citations)

Also, is it runner-ups or runners-up?

b) re: Smith - I do wonder if the fact that I can only think of actresses who have had a similar career arc (Sandra Bullock, Julia Roberts) and not an actors that when on to win Oscars bodes poorly for him.

c) I know it's stupid to brag about predictions you didn't actually make, but I did wonder about Danielson Lie. He's one I wonder about in a "wouldn't that be fun" way. Also, dude's a doctor with an actual medical practice.

d) Magilla, are you referring to First Cow?

e) You know how Tee spent most of the 2008 Oscar season telling us The Dark Knight wasn't going to be nominated for best picture? That's how I feel about Drive My Car. I always check out Ken Rudolph's site to see what screeners get sent out when and when he watches what, because he tends to watch everything. He was a voter in the foreign film category (it's unclear if he still is). He got the screener (link) at the end of November and he still hasn't watch it. I will say the extended voting season (how it should be, imo) undeniably helps because more people will see it, I just don't think enough voters are going to kick it up metaphorical pile. Heck, I'm not even convinced it's going to be nominated for foreign language film.

f) Honestly, I think if the major critics awards went for Keaton in a bigger way (instead of Spall and Hardy), he could've beaten Redmayne.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Gong into the critics' stretch, I was figuring Cumberbatch would sweep the big three -- at worst win 2 of 3 -- and try to hold off a big showing of Will Smith at the podunk/glorified bloggers groups. To my surprise, Cumberbatch only managed the one win in NY, but he's crushed at those other groups -- winning almost all, while Smith hasn't taken a one. There's still the possibility Smith rallies at the TV awards, starting tomorrow (even without an airing, the Globes remain in that group). But the scent in the air may be too strong; if the ever-trend-chasing Broadcasters fall in behind Cumberbatch, he may become impossible to derail.

Out of the last ten winners of Best Actor, only two of them have won any of the big three awards for Best Actor: Casey Affleck and Daniel Day-Lewis. And how many of these races turned out to be real races or foregone conclusions? I would say 2020, 2016, and maybe 2014 or 2011 depending on who you ask. And I would say all of those races had nothing to do with the critics weighing in.

I'm not looking at that. I'm also not really looking at the precursors. I have no idea if Cumberbatch or Smith is going to win the Globe or the SAG. I could make a case either way. I do think that Cumberbatch will win the BAFTA which has lined up with Best Actor 9/10, making it the strongest forecaster. Okay, I guess I'm looking at that a little...

I'm sure it's possible that these words come back to bite me in the ass later but I don't think they will. I think Benedict Cumberbatch is going to win. I think it has nothing to do with the critics weighing in. Benedict Cumberbatch's performance doesn't necessarily strike me as a clear critics sweep. I see it as being more of a favorite with a different kind of voters. I'm sure at some point I could waste a lot of time explaining why Academy voters like a certain type of male arc for their Best Actor winners vs. another type of male arc. I'm sure there are exceptions. But I just have a hunch they're going to understand and respond to Benedict Cumberbatch's arc in The Power of the Dog over Will Smith's arc in King Richard. I also think that Academy voters are either going to love The Power of the Dog because they love Benedict Cumberbatch in it or not love The Power of the Dog but think Benedict Cumberbatch is great. I don't think Will Smith has that kind of binary advantage with King Richard.

And while Will Smith is unquestionably due for recognition due to his legendary at this point career, I don't think voters can make a similar case that Will Smith is due but Benedict Cumberbatch is not. Cumberbatch is a previous nominee who is everywhere these days.

Obviously, the race isn't over, but I'm basically content to wait it out until the final envelope is opened.

Mister Tee wrote
Kristen Stewart has similarly dominated those lesser groups (though not quite as near-unanimously), but done surprisingly poorly with the big critics, many of whom had praised her. Stewart has an undeniable problem with the low audience scores Spencer has received, but it's hard to see who can take advantage of that -- The Lost Daughter is in similarly dire audience territory, Tammy Faye famously crashed at the box office, Haim is too green. Could Cruz actually be a threat to knock her off?

It's incredible to me that Best Actress is such a crowded, impressive race and yet Kristen Stewart seems largely unchallenged in her front-runner status at least at this moment. I suppose I'm part of the low audience score at this point. I... don't get it. I'm honestly trying to think of the last time I just didn't understand reactions to a performance like this. I understood why people liked Rami Malek even if I didn't agree. I'm just trying to work out in my head who else they could honor at this point. I thought that Lady Gaga might have a shot after the first weekend that House of Gucci opened. Now, I'm unclear as to whether or not she'll even be nominated. I'll just say that I wouldn't count Olivia Colman out just yet. Whatever problems people have with her film, she's pretty beloved in the industry and I haven't heard any negative takes on her performance yet. She also has an home-turf advantage at the BAFTAs which has gone 9/10.

[Big Magilla]

Drive My Car still sounds too much like last year's critics' darling, Milk My Cow, or whatever it was called. It doesn't seem like an Oscar movie.

Despite all the protests that Spider-Man: No Way Home doesn't deserve anything beyond Special Effects and Sound, it is too still popular to ignore. It would be a popular winner more akin to the euphoria that greeted Parasite's win than Drive My Car would be in these crazy times, though I still think The Power of the Dog and Belfast are more likely to prevail.

I don't have anything against Will Smith, but I find King Richard and his performance in it difficult to like. The guy was a bully who abandoned his first family and basically ignored his older daughters, concentrating on the two youngest ones who he bullied into becoming tennis champions. No one ever called him "king".

Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield (among those I've seen) and Denzel Washington and Peter Dinklage (among those I want to see) seem much more likely winners although a nomination for Smith seems likely.

Kristen Stewart in Spencer makes the most unappealing Diana ever. Why she's won anything for that performance is beyond me. Olivia Colman is terrific as the bad mother in The Lost Daughter but the film is an incoherent mess. Jessica Chastain and Jamie Comer gave the best lead female performances I have seen this year and I can't wait to see Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers. Beyond them, I'd probably vote for Tessa Thompson in Passing and Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos at this point.

Supporting Actor is difficult to predict with any certainty beyond Smit-McPhee and Hinds, though Dornan seems almost as likely as his co-star.

Supporting Actress beyond Dunst and Negga is also difficult. Balfe, Dench (who these groups keep ignoring), and Ellis seem most likely, but DeBose keeps popping up and Dowd is also still very much in the conversation.

[Mister Tee]

Not since their first decade have the Society choices been so dismissive of English-language efforts. Passing and The Green Knight are the only non-foreign winners. Some of this may have come from fatigue ("Kodi Smit-McPhee has won ENOUGH!"), but it's striking.

So, Drive My Car is the first foreign effort to sweep the big three critics' awards. Making one wonder anew if best picture/director Oscar nominations are a possibility. The recent expansion of the voting rosters make it more possible than before, but still it's iffy.

Gong into the critics' stretch, I was figuring Cumberbatch would sweep the big three -- at worst win 2 of 3 -- and try to hold off a big showing of Will Smith at the podunk/glorified bloggers groups. To my surprise, Cumberbatch only managed the one win in NY, but he's crushed at those other groups -- winning almost all, while Smith hasn't taken a one. There's still the possibility Smith rallies at the TV awards, starting tomorrow (even without an airing, the Globes remain in that group). But the scent in the air may be too strong; if the ever-trend-chasing Broadcasters fall in behind Cumberbatch, he may become impossible to derail.

Kristen Stewart has similarly dominated those lesser groups (though not quite as near-unanimously), but done surprisingly poorly with the big critics, many of whom had praised her. Stewart has an undeniable problem with the low audience scores Spencer has received, but it's hard to see who can take advantage of that -- The Lost Daughter is in similarly dire audience territory, Tammy Faye famously crashed at the box office, Haim is too green. Could Cruz actually be a threat to knock her off?

[Sabin]

NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS 1966: "We exist to contrast the milquetoast influence of Bosley Crowther and honor real art!"
NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS 2022: "The other groups didn't honor Drive My Car ENOUGH!"

We'll see. Anyway, seeing it tonight, looking forward to it.

[Mister Tee]

To be updated as they come in:

Best Picture: DRIVE MY CAR (48 points)
Runners-up: PETITE MAMAN (25 points), THE POWER OF THE DOG (23 points)

Best Actress: Penélope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS (55 points)
Runners-up: Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (42 points), Alana Haim, LICORICE PIZZA (32 points)

Best Actor: Hidetoshi Nishijima, DRIVE MY CAR (63 points)
Runners-up: Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG (44 points), Simon Rex, RED ROCKET (30 points)

Best Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, PASSING (46 points)
Runners-up: Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY (22 points), Jessie Buckley, THE LOST DAUGHTER (21 points)

Best Supporting Actor: Anders Danielsen Lie, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (54 points)
Runners-up: Vincent Lindon, TITANE (33 points), Mike Faist, WEST SIDE STORY, and Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG (26 points)

Best Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, DRIVE MY CAR and WHEEL OF FORTUNE AND FANTASY (46 points)
Runners-up: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG (36 points), Céline Sciamma, PETITE MAMAN (28 points)

Best Screenplay: Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, DRIVE MY CAR (46 points)
Runners-up: Pedro Almodóvar, PARALLEL MOTHERS (22 points), Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA (20 points)

Best Cinematography: Andrew Droz Palermo, THE GREEN KNIGHT (52 points)
Runners-up: Ari Wegner, THE POWER OF THE DOG (40 points), Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, MEMORIA (35 points)

Best Nonfiction Film: FLEE (41 points)
Runners-up: PROCESSION and THE VELVET UNDERGROUND (28 points)