Post-Golden Globe Nod Predictions

[Movielover]

Picture:
American Gangster
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Director:
Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Joe Wright (Atonement)

Actor:
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
James McAvoy (Atonement)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

Actress:
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Original Screenplay:
Eastern Promises
The Great Debaters
Michael Clayton
Juno
Ratatouille

Adapted Screenplay:
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

[Damien]

Langella's movie -- and I can never remember the name of it -- is not exactly packing them in. Here in Manhattan, where one would imagine its appeal would be greatest, it left its premiere engagement theatres after just 3 weeks.

[The Original BJ]

Langella was runner up at LAFCA and won the Boston Critics. It's not exactly like he's lost awards like Peter O'Toole who had no precursors at all when he picked up his Oscar nod.

This is a debate which comes up often, but I tend to side with the reasoning that critics wins outside the majors (NBR, NYFCC, LAFC, NSFC...maybe you could include Broadcast Critics, as lame as their taste may be, simply based on their prominence), as well as runner-up mentions with the biggies don't really mean all that much. It's not that they mean NOTHING (if someone like Mirren is winning every award in sight, it only strengthens her lead), it's just that, if that's all you got, you don't have much, in my opinion.

And I'm not seeing the comparison regarding O'Toole at all. O'Toole had been talked about as a front-runner for months before his film was released; most pegged him as the leading contender to WIN until Whitaker swept the critics' trophies. But a nomination was never in doubt. Langella's film, on the other hand, only surfaced very recently, and this too little/too late factor puts him in a completely different class from O'Toole (as if the seven-nomination-no-wins screen legend factor didn't already). At this point, I think it would take a miracle for Langella to score a nomination, because I think very few people in Hollywood even know this movie exists.



Edited By The Original BJ on 1197837940

[OscarGuy]

Langella was runner up at LAFCA and won the Boston Critics. It's not exactly like he's lost awards like Peter O'Toole who had no precursors at all when he picked up his Oscar nod.

[The Original BJ]

I think Langella's chances are dead. The film is very small, and despite the reviews, Langella's performance hasn't gotten much traction. (Had he, say, won LAFCA or NYFCC, he'd at least still be in the hunt.) At this point, I'd rank him behind Clooney, Day-Lewis, Depp, Gosling, Hirsch, Hoffman, McAvoy, Mortensen, and Washington. I highly doubt populist-skewing SAG will find room for him, and I see very little opportunity for him to overcome the nine names listed above.

[Big Magilla]

I hope you're right about Langella, but if he couldn't even place with the New York Film Cirtics he's in big trouble. He will definitely need a SAG nod to keep his Oscar hopes afloat. I would love to see either him or Viggo Mortenson nominated over Denzel Washington who already has two Oscars and didn't do anything really impressive in American Gangster.

I would be absolutley shocked if Depp isn't nominated. He had no critical support for either of his two previous nominations. This time he's got a potential blockbuster opening at the last minute. He's a more likely winner than Clooney who just won an Oscar two years ago.

If they nominate Clooney and Wilkinson they'll certainly nominate Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton, probably over one of the Atonement gals.

[OscarGuy]

Day-Lewis and Clooney are the only locks, IMO. Depp has yet to win a critics prize and whether they like him or not, I don't think he's anywhere near a lock. Langella has critics recognition, Denzel Washington has two, high-profile end-of-year films that will likely lead him to be recognized...I don't see any other black actors in the race, so I doubt the Academy's going to go all-white.

Right now, the Best Actor race is murky with Depp taking nothing as yet. He needs the SAG nod to be in the race, for the larger SAG body of voters would be better prove he has support. If he can't get it there, he won't get it from the Academy. Most of us didn't give him credibility for a lock of an Oscar nod for Finding Neverland until SAG, so I wait as always for the more accurate group to ring in.

[anonymous1980]

Here are my newest predictions. Finally updated.

Hopefuls

Johnny Depp (barring a major backlash against him which you're apparently predicting) has a far better chance at a nomination than Washington or Langella. Even if Sweeney Todd fails to get in Best Picture or Best Director, I think Depp's nomination is more or less secure.

Right now, I think Clooney, Day-Lewis and Depp are virtual locks. It's the other two slots that are rather vague.

[Hustler]

No love for Amy Adams? Now I'm sad.

Amy Adams could easily replace Angelina Jolie.

[OscarGuy]

Here are my newest predictions. Finally updated.

Hopefuls

[Max Wilder]

Yes, it's me! I've lurked on and off for the past several years. I'm touched y'all remember. Nice to see a lot of familiar names.

[Eric]

It's been so long I ... don't even remember who Max Wilder was!

[Damien]

No love for Amy Adams? Now I'm sad.

OMG, is it really you, Max? We kept the porch light on for years hoping you'd return . . .

[anonymous1980]

No love for Amy Adams? Now I'm sad.

Max Wilder? THE Max Wilder?

Yes, I loved Amy Adams in Enchanted but I seem to be in the minority here.

[dylanfan23]

Michael Clayton got great reviews and they were warrented. They weren't middle of the road....they were on par with what atonement is getting or juno....they weren't no country reviews, or letters from iwo jima reviews but they were great reviews. And the film was a film thats very easy to love if you love movies as most of the voters do(i hope)...its a film that doesn't go in the directions that movies we don't like go in...if that makes sense. Its a strong story thats very well written and handled fairly well by the director. I myself would have given it a perfect rating if it weren't for the pacing which could have been better. But i thought all along this film would be loved by the awards. It had 3 outstanding performances...i thought clooney was outstanding in a not so easy role, swinton was perfect, and wilkenson was not over the top, his character was over the top, the mans made a living at playing over the top characters since in the bedroom and he hit a high note with this one...they all deserve and i think will get nominations. I don't know if the film deserves a nomination but i wouldn't be upset if it got one because films i think should get one don't have a chance, the screenplay surely deserves one.