It's October, Time for More Predictions

[Hustler]

Chrisite will not only be nominated, she'll likely win.

Oh la La!
Another veteran is supposed to win this year!

[ITALIANO]

The comment is beneath you.

You know that I love you. It's between you and Oscar Guy.

[Akash]

Thanks for the reminder Greg.

And before I forget Marco, I'm going to ignore your comment about bisexuals AGAIN. Simply because I know -- I just do -- that you know better than that. You're too smart. The comment is beneath you.

[Greg]

Akash, the last two quotes of mine are based on ITALIANO having said that he doesn't think bisexuals exist. Also, I wasn't actually mad at ITALIANO, I just couldn't resist trying to one-up his smart-assness.

[Akash]

BJ wrote "an image," not "the only image." I will rephrase what I said earlier and claim that you are the euro-cosmopolitan answer to criddic.

So somehow I missed this thread ENTIRELY when it was active (during Italiano vs. the Board. Round 800, I mean) but I just wanted to say Greg, I don't think comparing Marco to Criddic is fair. Whether you agree with him or not (and he and I do disagree at times) Marco is logical, intrepid, intelligent, and always, always honest. Criddic is conversely limited, illogical, and at times cowardly and dishonest (he blatantly makes things up and presents them as truisms and he will dodge issues when he can't combat them -- even when they're issues HE raised). So I really don't think you can compare the two. If there's a similarity, it's that they're both opinionated and stubborn -- and I will give criddic credit for that -- but that's many of us, no?

ITALIANO, the euro-cosmoplitan answer to Ahmadinejad.

If you're talking about current events, wouldn't that make Marco's enemies Columbia President Lee Bollinger? Not a title I'd want considering the man is so lousy, lame and lacking in the spirit of a liberal college, that he made the Iranian President seem civilized by comparison. Good job there, Lee!

I'm tempted to make a pithy remark to ITALIANO; but, I'm sure he'd just ignore it, as he refuses to acknowledge that akash, anonymous, or I even exist. :p

Why am I grouped here? He's responded to me various times. Marco's my boy.

Finally, I just want to say I agree with Johnny Guitar. And I'm in a similar position in that I like both Marco and Damien. Disagreements and arguments are ok, especially when they're constructive and I will admit I think Marco has a serious point about American politeness. We live in an incredibly fake country where we can't even be a real leftist or radical (for example) without offending someone. I'm guilty of this myself -- my parents raised me to be a good Indian-American boy who values "niceties" even at the expense of honesty, and I've spent the latter part of my life trying to undo that. I step on toes here from time to time, but I really try not to, whereas Marco doesn't care. He is enviably unencumbered by lacking that fundamental American insecurity -- that need to have people LIKE US (perhaps even moreso now that the Bush Administration has damaged our international reputation).

Oh yeah, and I think "Bill Condon and the Damienites" is a HILARIOUS band title. And I'm sure even Damien thinks so.



Edited By Akash on 1195249578

[Sabin]

Gurus of Gold just weighed in again.

BEST PICTURE
1. Atonement (127)
2. No Country for Old Men (121)
3. Charlie Wilson's War (80)
4. American Gangster (74)
5. There Will Be Blood (68)
...Michael Clayton (58)
...Juno (54)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Marion Cotillard (124)
2. Julie Christie (115)
3. Keira Knightley (99)
4. Ellen Page (83)
5. Angelina Jolie (47)
...Laura Linney (40)
...Cate Blanchett ('Elizabeth') (23)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett ('I'm Not There') (142)
2. Tilda Swinton (96)
3. Amy Ryan (65)
4. Julia Roberts (54)
5. Saoirse Ronan (44)
...Marisa Tomei (39)
...Ruby Dee (29)


...and the still-current Best Actor & Supporting Actor predictions.

BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (95)
2. Tommy Lee Jones (71)
3. James McAvoy (55)
4. Emile Hirsch (39)
5. Denzel Washington (39)
...George Clooney (33)
...Johnny Depp (33)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Javier Bardem (97)
2. Tom Wilkinson (73)
3. Paul Dano (58)
4. Hal Holbrook (42)
5. Casey Affleck (36)
...Philip Seymour Hoffman (35)
...John Travolta ('Hairspray') (23)

[99-1100896887]

Peter, thanks for the insight re Dukakis : I guess we haven't seen enough of her to notice the nuances that you see in her performance. We have only noticed slight variations on either Mrs. Madrigal or Rose Castorini, I will definitely take another look with your thoughts in mind.
I always look forward to your posts.

[Movielover]

My predictions:

Picture:
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)
David Cronenberg (Eastern Promises)
Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson's War)
Joe Wright (Atonement)

Actor:
John Cusack (Grace Is Gone)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley Of Elah)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

Actress:
Julie Christine (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Jennifer Garner (Juno)
Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson's War)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)

Original Screenplay:
Eastern Promises
Juno
Knocked Up
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Adapted Screenplay:
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

[Mister Tee]

The big thing Dukakis has going for her is, of the (many, many) performances of hers I've seen over the years, this resembles none of them. Showing unexpected new colors has always impressed the Academy.

On the other hand, I'm not sure everyone's not being overly sanguine about the chances of a film that was a really poor grosser ($5 million or so). The analogous films Precious Doll mentioned were, with the exception of Iris, considerably more widely seen -- and Iris was cleverly placed by Harvey in that open-limited-at-Christmas slot that can get nominations before people realize the film isn't making money. Christie, surely, will be there (and hopefully a strong win-contender), and Polley's screenplay a possibility, but I think Pinsent, however impressive, is a long-shot among alot of big names in probable best picture contenders.

[FilmFan720]

I really like this line-up. Is Jennifer Garner actually being considered for her performance in Juno though? Maybe I just haven't heard anything.

I've heard several good things about her performance, with many saying she is the stand-out (next to Page). I see big things coming for this film, Garner is a well-liked gorgeous actress (which never hurts) who is also making her Broadway debut this fall. I can see her picking up real steam in this category.

And who said this was a weak category this year? I think it could be a fascinatingly competitive one.

[99-1100896887]

I agree with Big Magilla re Dukakis. She left us cold, which is maybe what Polley wanted, but I found her to be a small, unpleasant character. Much as I admire Pinsent in his many Canadian films, I don't think he will be nominated for his role in this film. I think Christie outshone them all. Polley could hit it big : this is a difficult story for a young director to handle, andf she did a superb job.

[Big Magilla]

After seeing the film, Ryan seems like a very solid contender to me even if I've never even heard of her before this performance. She just nailed that reprobate, white trash, mother of an abductee/slattern role.

I think Ryan is almost certain to be nominated for Gone Baby Gone, but since she plays pretty much the same role in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, that performance may not seem like enough of a stretch to capture the award itself.

[Big Magilla]

I almost felt like Dukakis was supposed to leave you cold though, Magilla. To me, she had been deadened by the entire experience of caring for an Alzheimer's patient and all she had left was that house and the gifts her son sent instead of coming home. That's one of the things I thought was so great about her performance. Her character was sort of a cautionary tale of what can happen to someone who's decided to let go of their hold on their "lost" loved one, but also lets that best part of themselves go right along with it.

Put that way, I can see why you would appreciate the work she did, but after all is said and done, still a cold performance. I was with her up to the point where she closes the door after Pinsent's visit to her home in which he pours his heart out and says "what a jerk!" After taht, everything she did came across as not only cold, but calculated with no redeeming value.

I guess maybe I am confusing the actress with the character, but I am, so must a lot of other people. I haven't seen much support for her from anyone.

[flipp525]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

I really like this line-up. Is Jennifer Garner actually being considered for her performance in Juno though? Maybe I just haven't heard anything. I still think that Cate Blanchett will find herself nominated for I'm Not There. It seems like the sort of successful stunt casting the Academy would pounce on, especially if she starts picking up critics awards. There's already a precedent of them nominating female performers playing men (Linda Hunt, Felicity Huffman, for example). Personally, I'd replace the Garner nod with Blanchett, Dukakis or Mann.

After seeing the film, Ryan seems like a very solid contender to me even if I've never even heard of her before this performance. She just nailed that reprobate, white trash, mother of an abductee/slattern role.



Edited By flipp525 on 1193423965

[The Original BJ]

And yes, according to Lionsgate's awards site, Pinsent is absolutely (and rightly) positioned in lead.

Thank GOD. Cross off one case of category fraud I DON'T have to worry about. Not only is Pinsent a lead, he is THE lead -- Away From Her is far more Grant's story than Fiona's. In a perfect world, both would be nominated. And I agree with flipp: this film will be catnip for actors, and I think Pinsent will be nominated (like Tom Wilkinson) along his more famous and more award-bait female costar.

What hurts Dukakis's chances are the small size of her role and the fact that she doesn't really have any money scenes. (The closest is "You can't beat life," beautiful moment though it is.) If the category isn't competitive (and at this point, it looks that way), she could definitely sneak in.

And I recently read "The Bear Came Over the Mountain." Sarah Polley did a superb job of translating Munro's humane (and slightly ironic) prose, and I think the film even expands upon and deepens an already powerful story.