This group is odd to me because it really does feel like they go out of their way to spread the wealth.Mister Tee wrote
Actor: Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
[Paul Giamatti The Holdovers)]
Actress: Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
[Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)]
In 2012, they gave Best Actor to Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook. Then in 2018, they were clearly big enough fans of A Star is Born to give it Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor but settled on Best Director for Bradley Cooper. Is that because they gave him Best Actor a few years prior or because they really though his directing is what made the film? Either way, I'm reticent to select Cooper for Actor or Mulligan for Actress because both performers were recent winners from the group (2012 for Cooper and 2009 for Mulligan).
Despite his Breakthrough Performer Award in 2003 (what?), Paul Giamatti has never won an award for Best Actor. The awards season is pretty young but if there's been one loser thus far it's been Giamatti. You'd think he'd be a sure shot to show up at the Gothams or the Spirits Awards (he's won both) but his very showy role has been a no-show thus far. I feel like this group might go for it.