My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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dws1982 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:I like Ann Dowd, but I'm afraid Mass has just disappeared from sight -- I wouldn't even know where to go see it if I were so inclined.
Covid has kind of given smaller films a chance to play in cities where they usually wouldn't get a shot, but even with those more relaxed release patterns, the closest Mass has come to me is Nashville.
From Blu-ray.com:
Decal Releasing, NEON and Bleecker Street's newly formed home entertainment distribution company, will bring to Blu-ray Fran Kranz's film Mass (2021), starring Jason Isaacs, Martha Plimpton, Reed Birney, and Ann Dowd. The release will be available for purchase on January 11.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Mister Tee wrote:I like Ann Dowd, but I'm afraid Mass has just disappeared from sight -- I wouldn't even know where to go see it if I were so inclined.
Covid has kind of given smaller films a chance to play in cities where they usually wouldn't get a shot, but even with those more relaxed release patterns, the closest Mass has come to me is Nashville.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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I'm not ready to draw up projected-five's, but some thoughts on the acting categories:

Best actor seems Will Smith (the People's Choice) vs. Benedict Cumberbatch (the critical favorite). Not to analogize overall careers, but it might end up like 1981's best actor: one (Lancaster) swept the critics' prizes but the other won the Oscar without breaking a sweat. (Or not, if the film's box-office flame-out continues.) The rest are in a sense fillers, but Washington/Dinklage/DiCaprio/possibly Bardem or Cooper make for a thoroughly respectable/even star-filled slate.

Best actress appears to be giving us a 8-into-5 won't go situation. Kristen Stewart is the only absolute certainty, but KIdman and Colman seem quite likely, with Cruz, Gaga, Chastain, Haim, and McDormand very much in the running. I'd be very surprised if the Broadcasters didn't list all 8 of them, to avoid the hard choices. This could be a game of musical chairs right up to the morning of nominations (which is in February -- for the first time since I don't know when -- meaning there's a lot more time for voters to see everything and make up their own minds).

The supporting categories seem much more amorphous, and I'm not sure which choices are genuine and which are simply the narratives people have been carrying all year.

In supporting actor, Kodi Smit-McPhee and Ciaran Hinds are the ones I'd consider closest to sure things. I have no idea whether to take Bradley Cooper or Jared Leto seriously as options -- the former, apparently with a stand-out but quite small bit, has been a booster project for bloggers always trying to squeeze big stars into supporting categories; the latter is said to be over the top, which isn't the Academy's usual style, but who can say? (This is a problem in handicapping House of Gucci overall. I saw a tweet that said "Is Gaga as spectacular as I think, or am I just gay?" -- which is a question that may not be resolved until more critics weight in.) Beyond that, there's a pretty wide field of people whose films might propel them forward, or who might never get anywhere due to blogger indifference: Jamie Dornan, the possible second-candidate from Belfast; J.K. Simmons, veteran winner with a solid supporting role; Richard Jenkins, potential third-time nominee for The Humans (if anyone even watches it); Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill from Don't Look Up; maybe Willem Dafoe from Nightmare Alley? I see this as a very unsettled category...though it must be noted that, in similar previous such cases, blogger-dictation has proven strong, so maybe it'll just be Cooper/Leto.

Supporting actress has what appears a stronger core -- Dunst, Ellis, and Balfe all seem super-likely (Dench's long Oscar history be damned: Balfe has got BY FAR the best reviews for Belfast). Beyond that, the bloggers are, typically, doing the big star push -- which is to say, Blanchett in Nightmare Alley/Streep in Don't Look Up. Needless to say, we can't just wave off the possibility of Streep (though maybe one reason she gets in there so often is because the bloggers always lock her in so early). But it seems to me Ruth Negga has to be taken very seriously; Nina Arianda has got exceptional buzz out of Being the Ricardos; Kathryn Hunter was raved about as all three witches in Macbeth (critics' awards seem a real possibility); and both Jessie Buckley and Dakota Johnson are possible for The Lost Daughter. (I like Ann Dowd, but I'm afraid Mass has just disappeared from sight -- I wouldn't even know where to go see it if I were so inclined.) This could end up a really interesting, unsettled category.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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flipp525 wrote:
Reza wrote:Ok let's have a go at predicting.
Some of these seem oddly dated. Kirsten Dunst is essentially a lock for a nomination for The Power of the Dog (I’ve seen it - she’s excellent) and should definitely be listed here. I think Ann Dowd’s Mass buzz as a frontrunner in the same category is about two months ago (and Plimpton is better).
I realise Dunst is being heavily promoted. I've seen the film and didn't like her at all. I included Dowd because she has often been on the verge of a nod but has missed out. The Academy usually "rectifies" that oversite later. Maybe it's Dowd's year finally.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Sonic Youth wrote:
Big Magilla wrote: Either one or the other, or neither, or both, could make it.
I disagree.
Thanks for making me laugh out loud.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Big Magilla wrote: Either one or the other, or neither, or both, could make it.
I disagree.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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flipp525 wrote:
Reza wrote:Ok let's have a go at predicting.
Some of these seem oddly dated. Kirsten Dunst is essentially a lock for a nomination for The Power of the Dog (I’ve seen in - she’s excellent) and should definitely be listed here. I think Ann Dowd’s Mass buzz as a frontrunner in the same category is about two months ago (and Plimpton is better).

Also, Leo is getting in now for Don’t Look Up He apparently has a Network-esque monologue and is getting the film’s best notices. And, as stated below, he always brings a supporting player with him to the party.

I’ve heard that Bradley Cooper doesn’t really do enough in Licorice Pizza to get in. One of the Don’t Look Up actors seems like a better fit there.

I know that her buzz has really died down but I think Jessica Chastain will still get in (using BJ’s “bird in the hand” theory).
We should either change the title of the thread or start a new one for pre-year-end awards. The fall festivals came and went a while ago.

Will probably watch The Eyes of Tammy Faye tonight, before I make my updated predictions. My post-festival ones are posted here:
http://cinemasight.com/2021-oscar-nomin ... -festival/

I've heard that Plimpton gives a stronger performance than Dowd in Mass but it's Dowd who has been selling it while Plimpton has been sitting on the sidelines which probably gives her the advantage. Either one or the other, or neither, or both, could make it.

We have the same situation with Catriona Balfe and Judi Dench in Belfast. Balfe, who has a legion of fans thanks to TV's Outlander, is said to be the emotional center of the film, while Oscar favorite Dench has little to do but is said to be great at what she does get to do. Either one or the other, or neither, or both, could make it.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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flipp525 wrote
I’ve heard that Bradley Cooper doesn’t really do enough in Licorice Pizza to get in. One of the Don’t Look Up actors seems like a better fit there.
I didn't really write about Bradley Cooper because I was more caught up in the film than its Oscar chances.

Bradley Cooper does not have enough to do in this film but he is hilarious. It is slightly, slightly conceivable that if this film goes over very big that Cooper gets nominated because his entire performance is so funny. But a third of his performance is real-time in the trailer. His Jon Peters shows up for no reason in the film whatsoever. He provides a weird obstacle for the characters, acts like a total creepy weirdo, and disappears. If he does get nominated, it'll be because the film taps into Bradley Cooper's best qualities. He's excellent at playing manic truth-tellers slightly out of touch with the rest of the world, like in every David O. Russell movie. This character is actually very similar to his American Hustle character. So... maybe there's a slight precedent like Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road? But unlike that character, this character is utterly purposeless.

To give a better sense:

One could make the argument that Hoffman is the protagonist of the first half of Licorice Pizza while Haim is the protagonist of the second half of Licorice Pizza (one could also interview departing members of the audience to find out why doing shit like that is frustrating). But I digress, the first half is an adorable, although increasingly meandering, love story between an ambitious high schooler (Hoffman) and a twenty-something approaching a dead-end (Haim). Then it becomes the dead-ender's story a little bit as she's trying to figure out what she wants out of her life. This journey sends her or them through three male figures that serve as fraudulent male sexual harbingers of her life to come: Sean Penn plays "Jack" (?) Holden, a middle-aged fraud who hits on her but is caught up in his own illusions of stardom; Bradley Cooper plays Jon Peters, a sex-addicted narcissist who loves his privilege but admits sex with Barbra Streisand "gets a little dull," and Benjamin Safdie plays Joel Wachs, an ambitious young politician who wants to make the city a better place but is also hiding a double-life as a closeted gay man and is thus a fraud. Because all of these characters show up in the second half of the film and none of them really hang around, they're both fun but in an arbitrary way.

To contrast, let's look at Lady Bird. Lady has two would-be suitors over the course of this film but because the film is substantially more focused, Lucas Hedges shows up in the first half, serves his purpose as a would-be suitor, and disappears from focus but continues to hang around. In the first half of the story, Timothée Chalamet is set up as another would-be suitor whom Lady could have feelings for but she's currently involved with Hedges, so she circles back to him later in the second half, he serves his purpose, and then disappears.

Had any of those aforementioned characters a similar plot functionality to the would-be suitors in Lady Bird, I think they could get nominated and win, but they don't. If Cooper gets nominated, it will be through a fanatical passion on Academy voters for this film (which I don't think the end result will inspire) or a total lack of options (which I don't see).

Alana Haim has a shot at a nomination. Cooper Hoffman will probably get a Golden Globe nomination. He is quite good in the film.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Reza wrote:Ok let's have a go at predicting.
Some of these seem oddly dated. Kirsten Dunst is essentially a lock for a nomination for The Power of the Dog (I’ve seen it - she’s excellent) and should definitely be listed here. I think Ann Dowd’s Mass buzz as a frontrunner in the same category is about two months ago (and Plimpton is better).

Also, Leo is getting in now for Don’t Look Up. He apparently has a Network-esque monologue and is getting the film’s best notices. And, as stated below, he always brings a supporting player with him to the party.

I’ve heard that Bradley Cooper doesn’t really do enough in Licorice Pizza to get in. One of the Don’t Look Up actors seems like a better fit there.

I know that her buzz has really died down but I think Jessica Chastain will still get in (using BJ’s “bird in the hand” theory).
Last edited by flipp525 on Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:35 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Ok let's have a go at predicting.

Best Picture
*Belfast
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
West Side Story

I just cannot bring myself to round off this list to 10 by adding Dune or Don't Look Up. As it is I've added the Spielberg remake through gritted teeth.

Best Director
*Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Pablo Larrain, Spencer

6th: Pedro Almodóvar, Parallel Mothers

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
*Will Smith, King Richard

6th: Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon C'mon

Best Actress
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
*Kristen Stewart, Spencer

6th: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
*Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
J. K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

6th: Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Best Supporting Actress
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Judi Dench, Belfast
*Ann Dowd, Mass
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing

6th: Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Big Magilla »

Watched tick, tick...Boom and King Richard back to back.

I couldn't warm to tick, tick...Boom until near the end despite a strong attempt by Andrew Garfield to try to sell it. I can see a Golden Globe - Musical or Comedy nomination for him, but not Oscar.

King Richard is one of the better inspirational sports films but it doesn't soar. Will Smith is good in a quiet kind of way, which is unusual for him, but I don't see him as unbeatable. I don't see the film winning Best Picture unless everything else fizzles.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
As for Jeff Wells: he's always been what you'd call less-than-reliable, but of late he seems to have inhaled a lot of the toxic fumes that have infected his pal Sasha. Most every day he's railing about an imaginary mob of "wokesters" who are coming to destroy him; I swear, it won't be long before he comes out of the closet and votes Republican (he's already got the white male grievance thing turned up to 10). And his taste, never great, has tilted to the most pedestrian Hollywood shit. He continues to exult over Green Book's best picture win, thinks Parasite and Nomadland were strictly liberal-guilt wins, and won't shut up about King Richard sweeping the field this year. Oh, and anyone who doesn't share his exact opinion is lying to himself.
Yes, I know. He's just awful. I check him out out of sheer habit and it's not one that I'm remotely proud of. To be honest, I don't know how he has any sort of career left after his actions with James Mangold and Vinessa Shaw.
His "wokesters are the worst" turn came pretty much in the wake of #MeToo. Knowing of that incident, my suspicion has always been that he has other, maybe even more unsavory stories in his past that he's afraid might be unearthed in this less-permissive climate, so he's trying to keep ahead of that by discrediting all such efforts.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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flipp525 wrote
Leo is getting in now and he tends to bring supporting players with him.
So does Adam McKay. So, that's probably Jonah Hill or Mark Rylance and Meryl Streep.
EDIT BELOW
Mister Tee wrote
As for Jeff Wells: he's always been what you'd call less-than-reliable, but of late he seems to have inhaled a lot of the toxic fumes that have infected his pal Sasha. Most every day he's railing about an imaginary mob of "wokesters" who are coming to destroy him; I swear, it won't be long before he comes out of the closet and votes Republican (he's already got the white male grievance thing turned up to 10). And his taste, never great, has tilted to the most pedestrian Hollywood shit. He continues to exult over Green Book's best picture win, thinks Parasite and Nomadland were strictly liberal-guilt wins, and won't shut up about King Richard sweeping the field this year. Oh, and anyone who doesn't share his exact opinion is lying to himself.
Yes, I know. He's just awful. I check him out out of sheer habit and it's not one that I'm remotely proud of. To be honest, I don't know how he has any sort of career left after his actions with James Mangold and Vinessa Shaw.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by flipp525 »

Leo is getting in now and he tends to bring supporting players with him.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Sabin wrote: 1. What positive word have you heard about Don't Look Up?
Since you posted this, and before I could respond, the social media embargo broke, and many people flooded the zone with takes that approximated what I'd been hearing: that this is mostly very funny, not exactly subtle (surprise!), but the if-anything over-qualified cast puts it over, and it could be pretty popular. There were a few strong dissents, but, given the loathing McKay's Vice generated on Twitter, I'd say the reaction was overall very positive -- not in an Oscar-winning zone, but the kind of film that makes a list of ten (and SAG Ensemble, plus maybe an individual nomination for DiCaprio).

As for Jeff Wells: he's always been what you'd call less-than-reliable, but of late he seems to have inhaled a lot of the toxic fumes that have infected his pal Sasha. Most every day he's railing about an imaginary mob of "wokesters" who are coming to destroy him; I swear, it won't be long before he comes out of the closet and votes Republican (he's already got the white male grievance thing turned up to 10). And his taste, never great, has tilted to the most pedestrian Hollywood shit. He continues to exult over Green Book's best picture win, thinks Parasite and Nomadland were strictly liberal-guilt wins, and won't shut up about King Richard sweeping the field this year. Oh, and anyone who doesn't share his exact opinion is lying to himself.
Sabin wrote:3. Over the last ten years, more than half of Steven Spielberg's films have made the cut. They like him. But we'll see. I'd certainly prefer something like Don't Look Up turning into the late in the game juggernaut as opposed to a remake of a Best Picture winner.
I must admit, this gives me pause. Everything I see about West Side Story tells me my initial instinct was correct -- that there was no reason to make this movie -- yet, it's talented people behind it, people who know more than a little about this business; how can they be so committed to what seems to me such a pointless project? Maybe, to the now-many people younger than me, this is a great idea, and they'll turn out in droves. And you're certainly correct, that Spielberg has done extremely well with Oscar voters (though only in one case -- War Horse -- where the attention seemed completely undeserved). So, maybe my instincts are off-base here.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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