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Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:02 pm
by Franz Ferdinand
Only three Oscars for Slumdog on this faux list? Please. Very intriguing falsities though....
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:59 pm
by cam
Unless someone already posted this, Oscar officials hacve said that the Ganis "list" is fake.( Naturally)
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 1:56 pm
by rain Bard
I just went back and checked, and 17 of us predicted Swinton in MovieWes's Oscar contest, compared to 6 Amy Ryan predictors and scattered others.
Compare that to Best Actress, where all but four predictions were for Christie to win.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:52 am
by flipp525
Swinton was a worthy winner (her performance in Michael Clayton is fantastic), but Amy Ryan gave the best performance in this category. If she keeps turning in such solid work (see her bit part in this year's Changeling), she might make it up to the podium one day.
Also, Sabin was the first to cite Ryan as a possible nominee on this board, if I recall correctly.
It was like a cloud being lifted from a rainy field...the sun came shining through and I knew that the person who would beat Ryan against expectations was Swinton.
Wow.
Edited By flipp525 on 1235235855
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:24 am
by Big Magilla
Amy Ryan should have won on the basis of her performance though I don't think anyone saw her as invincible. Swinton's charming speech at the BAFTAs is what I think cinched it for her.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:13 am
by OscarGuy
That's what happens when I think back a year on things and don't research before I post. At the time, it wasn't that Ryan was invincible...I had been saying it for months that she wasn't, but when Swinton won the BAFTA over Blanchett and Ronan, who would have seemed more "right" for them to pick, she made perfect sense. It was like a cloud being lifted from a rainy field...the sun came shining through and I knew that the person who would beat Ryan against expectations was Swinton.
And since I wasn't the only one who called that (even that Dr. Oscar did), then I would say it wasn't much of a surprise...except to those who had blinders on with regard to Amy Ryan.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:01 am
by Hustler
And what about rumors that Ledger won´t win.
Edited By Hustler on 1235232112
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 11:00 am
by Hustler
Penelope wrote:Swinton was a surprise to me.
Also it was a surprise to me although I hoped that she won.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:49 am
by dws1982
OscarGuy wrote:Swinton was not at all a surprise. She was my prediction to win based on the BAFTAs, which had proven that Amy Ryan wasn't the invincible potential winner everyone thought.
Yeah, the BAFTA really did prove that Amy Ryan wasn't invincible, considering she wasn't even nominated, because Gone Baby Gone wasn't even released there until June of 2008.
And I don't know why everyone thought that Swinton winning the BAFTA improved her Oscar chances. Given that the BAFTAs always prefer performers born in Britain, raised in Britain, or who can locate Britain on a map. Since Swinton fit that criteria, had been working for years and years, and happened to be an Oscar nominee, I always knew she was a lock there. I predicted Amy Ryan at the Oscars, but I wasn't really surprised by Swinton.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 10:30 am
by Penelope
Swinton was a surprise to me.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:11 am
by OscarGuy
Swinton was not at all a surprise. She was my prediction to win based on the BAFTAs, which had proven that Amy Ryan wasn't the invincible potential winner everyone thought.
Posted: Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:59 am
by Hustler
Don´t forget that Swinton was the surprise winner in this category last year. Could Adams repeat that?
Edited By Hustler on 1235217565
Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 11:33 pm
by OscarGuy
You know? I wouldn't. She's got an Oscar nomination under her belt and she and Cruz are the only past nominees in this category that don't already have an Oscar. I still think Tomei could be the spoiler, but Adams, although just above Henson on my list in terms of chances, I could easily see her winning.
Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:24 pm
by Reza
Big Magilla wrote:....but Adams? I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be bemused.
Believe me, I would certainly be shocked!
Posted: Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:57 pm
by Big Magilla
It's the wrong Amy in the wrong year. Anyway more of us could/should have gotten last year's winners correct after the BAFTAs. I still maintain that Marion Cotillard won becasue she showed up at every Hollywood party last year while Julie Christie stayed home during most of Oscar season. Voters seem to like to give awards for those who campaign the hardest as witness the awards to Adrien Brody and Roberto Benigni among others. Benigni probably would've won anyway, but not Brody and not Cotillard.
We'll know in a couple of days if Mickey Rourke's campaigning vs. Sean Penn's seeming indifference makes it two years in a row that BAFTA's awards are the real precursor to pay attention to. The other winners, Slumdog, Boyle, Winslet, Ledger and Cruz seem hard to beat, though the latter is by no means certain, but Adams? I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be bemused.
Edited By Big Magilla on 1235170746