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Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:23 pm
by Okri
Well, Rourke winning best actor would surprise no one, and The Wrestler only has two nominations. And Cruz is still a very viable contender, and she's the only representative from her film.
A win for Hellboy in best make-up would be it's only win, and I don't think that's completely out of the realm of possibility.
Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 4:05 pm
by Greg
Big Magilla wrote:Since the odds are against all the awards going to films with five or more nominations, what is most likely to be this year's lone wolf?
I really believe that this year will break this odds and there will be no lone wolf.
Edited By Greg on 1232917588
Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 3:34 pm
by Big Magilla
Yes, and I can't believe I researched this but I do love a puzzle.
In every year there has a winner in one category or another with fewer than five nominations, whether it's in the acting, writing, music, special effects or since 1980, makeup categories there is often a winner that is the film's only nomination.
Since the odds are against all the awards going to films with five or more nominations, what is most likely to be this year's lone wolf?
Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 1:14 pm
by Greg
I noticed that I predicted that all the awards outside of foreign film, documentaries, and short subjects will go to films that have at least five nominations. Does anyone know, that if this does happen, would it be a first?
Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 12:00 pm
by kaytodd
Picture: Benjamin Button/should win: Milk
Director: David Fincher/should win: Gus Van Sant
Lead Actor: Sean Penn/should win: Frank Langella
Lead Actress: Kate Winslet/should win: Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/should win: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz/should win: Penelope Cruz
Adapted Screenplay: Benjamin Button/should win: Frost/Nixon
Original Screenplay: Milk/should win: Milk
Original Song: Jai Ho/should win: Jai Ho
Original Score: Benjamin Button/should win Benjamin Button
Film Editing: Slumdog/should win: Slumdog
Cinematography: Benjamin Button/should win: Changeling
Art Direction: Benjamin Button/should win: Changeling
Costume: Benjamin Button/should win: Milk
Makeup: Benjamin Button/should win: Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: Dark Knight/should win: WALL-E
Sound Editing: Dark Knight/should win: WALL-E
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button/should win: Dark Knight
Animated Feature: WALL-E/should win: have only seen WALL-E
Foreign Language: The Class/should win: have seen none of them
Documentary Feature: Man On Wire/should win: Encounters At The End Of The World
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 10:23 am
by criddic3
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Mickey Rourke
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: The Reader
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Dark Knight
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Jai Ho"
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Editing: Wall-E
Visual Effects: The Dark Knight
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign Language Film: The Baader Meinhof Complex
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 10:18 am
by Reza
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Film: WALL-E
Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supp. Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supp. Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Benjamin Button
Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: Benjamin Button
Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: WALL-E
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Documentary Short: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
Animated Short: Presto
Live Action Short: New Boy
Edited By Reza on 1232724275
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:30 am
by Okri
Yeah, and actually looking overall, I have Slumdog Millionaire winning best picture with only one other award, which would be unlikely (to say the least).
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:10 am
by paperboy
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Dark Knight
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Jai Ho"
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Editing: Wall-E
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign Language Film: The Class
Edited By paperboy on 1232709133
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 4:37 am
by rain Bard
dws1982 wrote:To me, that would be about 100 times worse than the Crash thing from three years back. I think I might actually quit watching the Oscars if The Reader gets anything major beyond Actress. (Which it doesn't deserve, but I won't begrudge Winslet's career prize.) Should it win, it would definitely be the worst Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay winner of my lifetime, maybe ever.
You've certainly got my interest piqued to read that longer piece on the Daldry film. I had major issues with it, but it still seemed potentially redeemable until the last reel or so. I can't wait to see your take.
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:29 am
by Franz Ferdinand
It makes me cringe to even think about it.
Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:12 pm
by Okri
The parallels are too interesting to overlook. Well, not that interesting, but I was enjoying them nonetheless.
Chicago and Slumdog: crowdpleasers
The Pianist and The Reader: Holocaust films, but not completely baity
Polanski and Daldry: on their third director's nomination
Harwood and Hare: on their second writing nomination
Slumdog and Chicago look to be heading into a backlash, partially for the way they've dominated the season. The Reader could be peaking late (or maybe it's nomination was a fluke).
I could easily be wrong, but frankly - I'm generally wrong, so what's the harm in having fun?
Edited By Okri on 1232680434
Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:11 pm
by dws1982
Eric wrote:Okri wrote:Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Steven Daldry, The Reader
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Adapt. Screenplay: The Reader
I was just saying on a different MB today that I could see Slumdog easily winning best picture, but then also seeing the Daldry movie pulling a Pianist, stealing awards in lead acting, directing and screenplay categories.
To me, that would be about 100 times worse than the Crash thing from three years back. I think I might actually quit watching the Oscars if The Reader gets anything major beyond Actress. (Which it doesn't deserve, but I won't begrudge Winslet's career prize.) Should it win, it would definitely be the worst Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay winner of my lifetime, maybe ever.
Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2009 9:47 pm
by Eric
Okri wrote:Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Steven Daldry, The Reader
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Adapt. Screenplay: The Reader
I was just saying on a different MB today that I could see Slumdog easily winning best picture, but then also seeing the Daldry movie pulling a Pianist, stealing awards in lead acting, directing and screenplay categories.
Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2009 9:31 pm
by Okri
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Steven Daldry, The Reader
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supp. Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supp. Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Orig. Screenplay: Milk
Adapt. Screenplay: The Reader
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Make-Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Orig. Score: WALL.E
Orig. Song: "Down to Earth," WALL.E
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Animated Film: WALL-E