Best Picture - I still say ye no to 'Australia'. Oscar doesn't like bombs. 'Australia' is a domestic bomb. 'Revolutionary Road' isn't looking good so either 'The Reader', 'Gran Torino', or 'Frost/Nixon'. Or hopefully 'WALL*E'.
Best Actor - I still say no to Langella but I'll probably be wrong. I just don't think Howard's movie will be the critical and box office hit it needs to be. DiCaprio over Pitt but he still looks good until 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' officially underwhelms. Then Pitt is out and so are Fincher's movie's chances. Penn, Rourke are good. Jackman, out. Eastwood, consider. I don't think we'll ever see DiCaprio and Pitt both nominated for Best Actor in the same field. Brolin is a dark horse.
Best Actress - Winslet, maybe/possibly. Jolie's film is hanging on but her notices are still lukewarm. The field is getting crowded. Kidman, no. Blanchett, we'll have to wait to see how glowing her notices are, if ANYBODY is the stand-out in 'Button'. Streep is in. Leo and Hawkins are on the outskirts fighting for the same critic's awards.
Best Supporting Actor - sub Hirsch for Franco, and this could actually be the field but I don't see Irwin winning. His role has a giddiness to it that is too tender, I think. Ledger looks solid. Having just seen Downey, Jr. in 'Tropic Thunder', I certainly hope he's nominated but it would be one of the most unprecedented nods in history. Sheen? Shannon? Schreiber?
Best Supporting Actress - no Winger! No part! DeWitt is far more likely. Taraji P. Henson looks outstanding the trailer. I think Winslet has a good grasp on her sixth or seventh nomination in this category and Penelope Cruz is one of the few out-and-out locks in any category this year. I see Cruz winning the Golden Globe and the National Board of Review award. She's an undeniable front-runner. Davis is looking good. Adams, solid, maybe not. Bates? Who knows.
Other assorted thoughts to come.
New Predictions
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OscarGuy
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My Bill Irwin prediction comes from one standpoint. If he gets nommed, I could very easily see him winning. He's one of the great, unrecognized comic/character actors out there. He has admirers on both coasts and if the film catches on big, I could very easily see him winning a career recognition for the performance, just from people who respect the hell out of him. Of course, that didn't work last year, so who knows. but...
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Big Magilla
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Things are beginning to crystalize as reviews come out.
Best direction and screenplay nods are still up in the air so I won't comment on those, but as for the remaining big five:
Best Picture - Four crowd pleasers (Button, Slumdog, Australia and The Dark Knight) and 1 major dramatic film (Milk) seems an unlikely mix. I don't see The Dark Knight getting in here unless either Button or Australia fails miserably and advance word seems to suggest that they might not be great films but will go over well with mass audiences. Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road and The Reader all seem better positioned to take that fifth slot.
Best Actor - Leo over Brad fer sure, Clint over Hugh probably, and if Rourke doesn't win at least one major precursor for what will likely be a box office bomb he's toast with Richard Jenkins the likely recipient of the "little film" actor nod.
Best Actress - no Kidman, no Blanchett, but definitely Kristen Scott Thomas and Meryl Streep. Jolie also looks iffy, with Melissa Leo poised to take her slot. It's gonna be a battle between the oft-nominated Winslet and nominee champ Streep for the win.
Best Supporting Actor - a nomination for Bill Irwin would be a surprise, a win would be a shock. Either the acclamation for Heath Ledger will materialize or it won't. If it doesn't, I would expect Josh Brolin, who's had two very impressive years in a row, to take the award. Also James Franco over Emile Hirsch, though both could be nommed. With Michael Shannon getting the best notices for Revolutionary Road, his nomination is all but assured. Though Philip Seymour Hoffman is likely, category placement questions, though no one will admit it, anxiety over another Ledger-Hoffman competition, and the fact that's he's already had one-post win nomination may all conspire to leave him out in the cold.
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz and Taraji P. Henson, the only Button actor virtually certain to receive a nomination, over Winger and Bates. Elsa Zyberstein, who plays Kristen Scott Thomas' sister in I've Loved You So Long is also more likely than Amy Adams.
By the way, it's Rosemarie DeWitt, not Rosemary Dewitt (without the capitalization of after the "de" the name would be pronounced "do it" instead of "de wit").
Otherwise not bad early guessing.
Edited By Big Magilla on 1227121643
Best direction and screenplay nods are still up in the air so I won't comment on those, but as for the remaining big five:
Best Picture - Four crowd pleasers (Button, Slumdog, Australia and The Dark Knight) and 1 major dramatic film (Milk) seems an unlikely mix. I don't see The Dark Knight getting in here unless either Button or Australia fails miserably and advance word seems to suggest that they might not be great films but will go over well with mass audiences. Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road and The Reader all seem better positioned to take that fifth slot.
Best Actor - Leo over Brad fer sure, Clint over Hugh probably, and if Rourke doesn't win at least one major precursor for what will likely be a box office bomb he's toast with Richard Jenkins the likely recipient of the "little film" actor nod.
Best Actress - no Kidman, no Blanchett, but definitely Kristen Scott Thomas and Meryl Streep. Jolie also looks iffy, with Melissa Leo poised to take her slot. It's gonna be a battle between the oft-nominated Winslet and nominee champ Streep for the win.
Best Supporting Actor - a nomination for Bill Irwin would be a surprise, a win would be a shock. Either the acclamation for Heath Ledger will materialize or it won't. If it doesn't, I would expect Josh Brolin, who's had two very impressive years in a row, to take the award. Also James Franco over Emile Hirsch, though both could be nommed. With Michael Shannon getting the best notices for Revolutionary Road, his nomination is all but assured. Though Philip Seymour Hoffman is likely, category placement questions, though no one will admit it, anxiety over another Ledger-Hoffman competition, and the fact that's he's already had one-post win nomination may all conspire to leave him out in the cold.
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz and Taraji P. Henson, the only Button actor virtually certain to receive a nomination, over Winger and Bates. Elsa Zyberstein, who plays Kristen Scott Thomas' sister in I've Loved You So Long is also more likely than Amy Adams.
By the way, it's Rosemarie DeWitt, not Rosemary Dewitt (without the capitalization of after the "de" the name would be pronounced "do it" instead of "de wit").
Otherwise not bad early guessing.
Edited By Big Magilla on 1227121643
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OscarGuy
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Here's my reasoning on Wrestler for Editing, mainly because I don't care to defend the others at this point in time.
The Academy loves boxing movies in the Editing category. Sure, you could say Raging Bull and Million Dollar Baby were nommed because of their prominence, but there is that precedent. If Wrestler is going to be a prominent precursor candidate, Editing is one of the categories I could see it catching on. Sure wrestling is different than boxing, but they use similar styles.
The Academy loves boxing movies in the Editing category. Sure, you could say Raging Bull and Million Dollar Baby were nommed because of their prominence, but there is that precedent. If Wrestler is going to be a prominent precursor candidate, Editing is one of the categories I could see it catching on. Sure wrestling is different than boxing, but they use similar styles.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
No, I'm not saying that at all. I was just pointing out the precedent of three actors being nominated from a Streep film without her being one of them.rolotomasi99 wrote:flipp525 wrote:rolotomasi99 wrote:-three supporting nominations for DOUBT but none for her majesty. really?
Ever seen The Hours?
so you think streep is going to be nominated for MAMMA MIA instead? that is what happened in 2002. streep was nominated for ADAPTATION instead of THE HOURS.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
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-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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rolotomasi99
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so you think streep is going to be nominated for MAMMA MIA instead? that is what happened in 2002. streep was nominated for ADAPTATION instead of THE HOURS. i just find it hard to believe DOUBT could pull in three nominations but then streep gets left out while kidman in freaking AUSTRALIA would be nominated. it would be pretty insulting of the academy to do that, but they have committed worse offenses.flipp525 wrote:rolotomasi99 wrote:-three supporting nominations for DOUBT but none for her majesty. really?
Ever seen The Hours?
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
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MovieWes
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Nice set of predictions. A few minor things that I don't see happening (I think that both The Dark Knight and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull have better shots at being nominated for sound mixing over The Wrestler), but fairly solid predictions. I also think that Hellboy II: The Golden Army will be nominated for best makeup. Don't know which one I'd take out there -- possibly Benjamin Button because the makeup was enhanced with CGI -- but I'm pretty sure that it's in.
I also think that both Speed Racer and Journey to the Center of the Earth are not getting nominated for visual effects. Especially Speed Racer, since I've heard that John Gaeta, the visual effects supervisor, is one of the most hated individuals amongst visual effects technicians after his comments that effects in The Matrix Reloaded/Revolutions were the measuring bar by which all visual effects from then on would be measured (and which resulted in the films not even being placed among the finalists in 2003). Replace them with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Dark Knight, or The Incredible Hulk.
Edited By MovieWes on 1227116340
I also think that both Speed Racer and Journey to the Center of the Earth are not getting nominated for visual effects. Especially Speed Racer, since I've heard that John Gaeta, the visual effects supervisor, is one of the most hated individuals amongst visual effects technicians after his comments that effects in The Matrix Reloaded/Revolutions were the measuring bar by which all visual effects from then on would be measured (and which resulted in the films not even being placed among the finalists in 2003). Replace them with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Dark Knight, or The Incredible Hulk.
Edited By MovieWes on 1227116340
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rolotomasi99
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looks good to me! 
stray thoughts:
-glad to see you took luhrmann out of the director nominees. you sure seem to think AUSTRALIA is going all the way. many of the non-dramatic nominations i can easily see, especially cinematography, but screenplay and the two acting noms seem unlikely. we shall see.
-i admire your more "out there" choices like THE WRESTLER for editing and sound, CHE for set, APPALOOSA for cinematography, and JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH for visual effects. you mix in safe choices with predictions all your own.
-three supporting nominations for DOUBT but none for her majesty. really?
-four acting nominations for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED. is this wishful thinking or a true gut feeling?
-in the acting category, you have 1 film with 4 nominees, 2 films with 3 nominees each, and 3 films with 2 nominees each. 20 acting nominees from 9 films. is that the smallest number of films in the acting categories ever?
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1227114160
stray thoughts:
-glad to see you took luhrmann out of the director nominees. you sure seem to think AUSTRALIA is going all the way. many of the non-dramatic nominations i can easily see, especially cinematography, but screenplay and the two acting noms seem unlikely. we shall see.
-i admire your more "out there" choices like THE WRESTLER for editing and sound, CHE for set, APPALOOSA for cinematography, and JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH for visual effects. you mix in safe choices with predictions all your own.
-three supporting nominations for DOUBT but none for her majesty. really?
-four acting nominations for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED. is this wishful thinking or a true gut feeling?
-in the acting category, you have 1 film with 4 nominees, 2 films with 3 nominees each, and 3 films with 2 nominees each. 20 acting nominees from 9 films. is that the smallest number of films in the acting categories ever?
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1227114160
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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OscarGuy
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Here are my latest predictions. No matter what I've included, someone will find something to detest about them, but here goes.
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin