Wes, let's not forget that Sophia Loren was an American star when she won--not so for Cotillard. If this was say Catharine Deneuve, Julie Delpy, or even Audrey Tatou then I'd be more inclined to give her the edge, but I think for a a foreign actress of Cotillard's caliber to pull this off her film would have to be as well-received overall as Begnini's was in '98 to compensate. Whilst it is true she has more critic support than Penelope Cruz did last year I just don't see many voters anticipating to check off her name as of yet.
Page's lack of name recognition also dampens her chances. Had this been Scarlett Johannson or even Anne Hathaway we'd have more of a contender under the same circumstances even though the last comedic performance to to win here was also in '98.
Edited By mashari on 1199133787
St. Louis Gateway Critics Awards
Ellen Page would become the Assistant to the Agent of Satan if she wins the Oscar over Christie or Cotillard.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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The Original BJ
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Christie is still definitely the front-runner, and will remain so after her certain Globe win. But she does have a Sissy Spacek '01 vibe about her, as two other contenders are being talked about as genuine upset possibilities. Cotillard's mimicry is such a PERFORMANCE, and Ellen Page has Ebert's "performance of the year" stamp of approval (I bet he'll even predict her to win) that either could take her down. It will be VERY interesting to see what happens in the Comedy/Musical category at the Globes.
When I saw A Mighty Heart (and its box office grosses), I didn't think Jolie would last beyond the Globes, but here she is. A second win is out of the question, though. I just don't think she has enough to do in her film. Cotillard and Page have their detractors, but both, along with Christie, are singular performances. Jolie is nothing more than competent (and, in her BIG scene, less than that.)
When I saw A Mighty Heart (and its box office grosses), I didn't think Jolie would last beyond the Globes, but here she is. A second win is out of the question, though. I just don't think she has enough to do in her film. Cotillard and Page have their detractors, but both, along with Christie, are singular performances. Jolie is nothing more than competent (and, in her BIG scene, less than that.)
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OscarGuy
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Of the contenders, Jolie is probably the least likely to pick up a second trophy. They'd give it to vet Christie before they picked Jolie. I think Cotillard has the best chance at upseting Christie. Sure Bardem and Castle-Hughes are good examples, but their performances were hardly knock-down-Oscar's-door kinda performances. They were relatively light on the dramatics. The same can be said for Christie. I think Ellen Page will be "your nomination is your reward" worthy. There's also the chance that certain promoters could do for her what they did for Benigni. A actor had never won an Oscar for Best Actor in a foreign language film. While Sophia Loren has the distinction of being the first in Best Actress, we've not had such a victor since then. That's 46 years. Some may feel that's too long to go without a foreign actor winning the category.
I still think this is Christie's to lose, but we'll have to see how SAG and GG turn out. Especially if SAG goes for Cotillard, then we could see Christie go down.
I still think this is Christie's to lose, but we'll have to see how SAG and GG turn out. Especially if SAG goes for Cotillard, then we could see Christie go down.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
I will say that Julie Christie would be the type of veteran actress that the Academy wouldn't mind awarding a second Oscar to, but is it just me or is there a genuine chance that she'll get upset this year? The surprising box office of Juno gives Page a valuable edge, but I still think the unknown would have had to garner even more critics awards and word-of-mouth than she has received in order to take this prize a la Hillary Swank.
Cotillard's actor-love brings to mind Javier Bardem & Keisha Castle Hughes' nominated breakthrough performances. They had several of their peers routing for them for their turns in the press, especially Bardem, but probably didn't even come close to Oscar gold in the end.
I'm still waiting to see if Angelina Jolie can become this year's sleeper contender in this weak year. She has her skeptics, but the fact that her nomination chances are pretty solid despite her perf debuting months ago speaks volumes and if the GG's go gaga over her again(she has won 3 of them!) and the SAG's follow suit she may serve as a serious threat at AMPAS. That is, if female voters can ignore the homewrecker tag and concentrate on the work.
Edited By mashari on 1199127294
Cotillard's actor-love brings to mind Javier Bardem & Keisha Castle Hughes' nominated breakthrough performances. They had several of their peers routing for them for their turns in the press, especially Bardem, but probably didn't even come close to Oscar gold in the end.
I'm still waiting to see if Angelina Jolie can become this year's sleeper contender in this weak year. She has her skeptics, but the fact that her nomination chances are pretty solid despite her perf debuting months ago speaks volumes and if the GG's go gaga over her again(she has won 3 of them!) and the SAG's follow suit she may serve as a serious threat at AMPAS. That is, if female voters can ignore the homewrecker tag and concentrate on the work.
Edited By mashari on 1199127294
"The only thing I regret about my past is the length of it. If I had to live my life again, I'd make the same mistakes... only sooner."--Tallulah Bankhead
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Big Magilla
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The scary thing is that the BBC asked a number of well known actors to name thir favorite film of 2007 and instead of naming a film, recent Oscar winners Cate Blanchett, Renee Zellweger and Charlize Theron all cited Cotillard's performance as the highlight of the year for them. So, while Christie, and even Page, may be ahead with critics, Cotillard's heavy emoting may be more in sync with actors.
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OscarGuy
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I don't know how they thought Pinsent was support to Christie, but if anything Christie was in support to him. It's his story...the title even says that "Away from Her". It's about his life away from the woman he loves...I didn't get it, either.
And here's a thought on Affleck. I think there are two contributing factors to it (vote-counting is so much fun...). The first is that the studio is pushing him there. Against our better wishes, the Academy, Critics and the like are wont to place them where the studios want them in fear they won't get nominated at all by vote splitting. The second one for Affleck specifically is that he's also got a lead role in Gone Baby Gone. I think there are a lot of people who are pushing him unsuccessfully for lead in GBG and in support for Assassination because they have an easier time agreeing to that placement compared to GBG and they don't want him to compete against himself in the same category. It's a head-scratcher for sure, but it has some logic behind it.
And here's a thought on Affleck. I think there are two contributing factors to it (vote-counting is so much fun...). The first is that the studio is pushing him there. Against our better wishes, the Academy, Critics and the like are wont to place them where the studios want them in fear they won't get nominated at all by vote splitting. The second one for Affleck specifically is that he's also got a lead role in Gone Baby Gone. I think there are a lot of people who are pushing him unsuccessfully for lead in GBG and in support for Assassination because they have an easier time agreeing to that placement compared to GBG and they don't want him to compete against himself in the same category. It's a head-scratcher for sure, but it has some logic behind it.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
This happened??OscarGuy wrote:That's nothing, BJ. Think about Gordon Pinsent being nominated for Supporting Actor
I have loved reading everything BJ has been writing about the especially egregious category placements this Oscar season, and I completely agree that if Affleck doesn't take home Best Documentary Short Subject I will be quite heartbroken...
however OscarGuy, you got me there with Pinsent, I could be persuaded (against my will) to give in about Affleck and, sure why not, Heigl, but Pinsent in supporting would actually be dumber....
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OscarGuy
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That's nothing, BJ. Think about Gordon Pinsent being nominated for Supporting Actor and the following individuals being nominated for Breakthrough: Ellen Page, Jason Reitman, Javier Bardem...
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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The Original BJ
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Don't think these have been posted yet. From their own website.
BEST PICTURE
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WINNER
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford RUNNER UP (TIED)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly RUNNER UP (TIED)
Into The Wild
Juno RUNNER UP (TIED)
The Kite Runner
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS
ELLEN PAGE - JUNO WINNER
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose RUNNER UP
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
Laura Linney - The Savages
BEST ACTOR
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - THERE WILL BE BLOOD WINNER
Don Cheadle - Talk To Me RUNNER UP
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Ryan Gosling - Lars And The Real Girl
Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley Of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
AMY RYAN - GONE BABY GONE WINNER
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There RUNNER UP
Katherine Heigl - Knocked Up
Taraji P. Henson - Talk To Me
Saorise Ronan - Atonement
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CASEY AFFLECK - THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD WINNER
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Josh Brolin - No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War RUNNER UP
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men
Michael Sheen - Music Within
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
BEST DIRECTOR
ETHAN COEN AND JOEL COEN - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WINNER
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood RUNNER UP
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Ethan and Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson’s War
Sean Penn - Into The Wild
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD - ROGER DEAKINS WINNER
Atonement - Seamus McGarvey RUNNER UP
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski
Into The Wild - Eric Gautier
The Kite Runner - Roberto Schaefer
No Country For Old Men - Roger Deakins
There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit
BEST SCREENPLAY (Original or Adapted)
JUNO - DIABLO CODY WINNER
Atonement - Ian McEwan and Christopher Hampton
Into The Wild - Sean Penn and Jon Krakauer
Lars And The Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country For Old Men - Ethan Coen, Joel Coen and Cormac McCarthy RUNNER UP
Persepolis - Vincent Paronnaud and Marjane Satrapi
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY WINNER
The Host
The Kite Runner RUNNER UP
La Vie En Rose
Lust, Caution
Persepolis
BEST DOCUMENTARY
SICKO WINNER
In The Shadow Of The Moon
King of Kong – A Fist Full of Quarters RUNNER UP
Manufactured Landscapes
No End In Sight
BEST COMEDY
JUNO WINNER
Knocked Up
Lars And The Real Girl
The Simpsons Movie
Superbad RUNNER UP
Waitress
Walk Hard
BEST ANIMATED OR FAMILY FILM
RATATOUILLE WINNER
Bridge To Terabithia
Enchanted
The Golden Compass
Persepolis
The Simpsons Movie RUNNER UP
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (CGI/Special Effects)
300 WINNER
The Golden Compass
Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix RUNNER UP (TIED)
I Am Legend
Stardust
Sweeney Todd RUNNER UP (TIED)
BEST SCORE
SWEENEY TODD WINNER
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
Juno
La Vie En Rose RUNNER UP (TIED)
Once RUNNER UP (TIED)
MOST ORIGINAL OR INNOVATIVE FILM
I'M NOT THERE WINNER
Across The Universe
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly RUNNER UP
Into Great Silence
Juno
Persepolis
WORST FILM OF THE YEAR
THE BROTHERS SOLOMON WINNER
NORBIT RUNNER UP
BEST PICTURE
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WINNER
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford RUNNER UP (TIED)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly RUNNER UP (TIED)
Into The Wild
Juno RUNNER UP (TIED)
The Kite Runner
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS
ELLEN PAGE - JUNO WINNER
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose RUNNER UP
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
Laura Linney - The Savages
BEST ACTOR
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS - THERE WILL BE BLOOD WINNER
Don Cheadle - Talk To Me RUNNER UP
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Ryan Gosling - Lars And The Real Girl
Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley Of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
AMY RYAN - GONE BABY GONE WINNER
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There RUNNER UP
Katherine Heigl - Knocked Up
Taraji P. Henson - Talk To Me
Saorise Ronan - Atonement
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CASEY AFFLECK - THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD WINNER
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Josh Brolin - No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War RUNNER UP
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country For Old Men
Michael Sheen - Music Within
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
BEST DIRECTOR
ETHAN COEN AND JOEL COEN - NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WINNER
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood RUNNER UP
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Ethan and Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson’s War
Sean Penn - Into The Wild
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD - ROGER DEAKINS WINNER
Atonement - Seamus McGarvey RUNNER UP
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly - Janusz Kaminski
Into The Wild - Eric Gautier
The Kite Runner - Roberto Schaefer
No Country For Old Men - Roger Deakins
There Will Be Blood - Robert Elswit
BEST SCREENPLAY (Original or Adapted)
JUNO - DIABLO CODY WINNER
Atonement - Ian McEwan and Christopher Hampton
Into The Wild - Sean Penn and Jon Krakauer
Lars And The Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country For Old Men - Ethan Coen, Joel Coen and Cormac McCarthy RUNNER UP
Persepolis - Vincent Paronnaud and Marjane Satrapi
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY WINNER
The Host
The Kite Runner RUNNER UP
La Vie En Rose
Lust, Caution
Persepolis
BEST DOCUMENTARY
SICKO WINNER
In The Shadow Of The Moon
King of Kong – A Fist Full of Quarters RUNNER UP
Manufactured Landscapes
No End In Sight
BEST COMEDY
JUNO WINNER
Knocked Up
Lars And The Real Girl
The Simpsons Movie
Superbad RUNNER UP
Waitress
Walk Hard
BEST ANIMATED OR FAMILY FILM
RATATOUILLE WINNER
Bridge To Terabithia
Enchanted
The Golden Compass
Persepolis
The Simpsons Movie RUNNER UP
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (CGI/Special Effects)
300 WINNER
The Golden Compass
Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix RUNNER UP (TIED)
I Am Legend
Stardust
Sweeney Todd RUNNER UP (TIED)
BEST SCORE
SWEENEY TODD WINNER
The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
Juno
La Vie En Rose RUNNER UP (TIED)
Once RUNNER UP (TIED)
MOST ORIGINAL OR INNOVATIVE FILM
I'M NOT THERE WINNER
Across The Universe
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly RUNNER UP
Into Great Silence
Juno
Persepolis
WORST FILM OF THE YEAR
THE BROTHERS SOLOMON WINNER
NORBIT RUNNER UP