Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Feature: Everything Everywhere All At Once
First Feature: Aftersun
Documentary: Fire of Love

Oh FFS, stop with this shit about diversity and the obsession with identity checklists and potential backlashes. The DGA nominated six men – the horror! If we must go down this route, need I remind you of who has won the Oscar for Best Director for the past decade.

I actually find Tar's profile fascinating. It's such a dark, knotty object that feels like it should be a lone director. But it's also really ideas driven, and ideas are the purview of the script (right?). I actually think it has a Foxcatcher like feel - if this was a flexible group as opposed to a slate of ten, I think it could miss out.

No Luhrmann nor Cameron here is something to notice too..

mlrg wrote
A nomination for her might seem far fetched at this point but I do see her pulling a Jessie Buckley/Marina de Tavira/Laura Dern (in Wild) type of coattail surprise nomination.

I don't totally get the acclaim for her performance but I support any nomination for Tár.

Sabin wrote:I remain skeptical of Nina Hoss' chances.

A nomination for her might seem far fetched at this point but I do see her pulling a Jessie Buckley/Marina de Tavira/Laura Dern (in Wild) type of cottail surprise nomination.

Mister Tee wrote
I think the headline missed here is Field's nomination. There was some worry, after TAR's relatively poor box-office run, that the film could be a Carol, too arty and female-centered for Academy voters, and especially the DGA. That he showed up here makes him a near-certainty for the directors' branch nod.

Agreed. Also, I feared it was in danger of being seen as more a feat of writing rather than directing, which makes no sense to me because it's such a directed thing.

It looks like TÁR will end up with four nominations on the low end (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay) with outside shots at Editing and Sound. I remain skeptical of Nina Hoss' chances.

I think the headline missed here is Field's nomination. There was some worry, after TAR's relatively poor box-office run, that the film could be a Carol, too arty and female-centered for Academy voters, and especially the DGA. That he showed up here makes him a near-certainty for the directors' branch nod.

If this were an old-fashioned year of five (am I the only one who still reflexively thinks that way?), I'd think TAR as lone director, and Maverick as picture-not-director. Kosinski is the obvious one to imagine leaving the list at the Oscars, and I'd say a foreign entrant -- Berger or Rajamouli over Park Chan-wook, the way things have been going; or Ostlund (foreigner-working-in-English) -- are the most likely substitutes, though you can't rule out something smallish, like Wells for Aftersun.

The Directors branch of the Academy is even less diverse thinking than the DGA which has given four of its five slots for first-time directors to women this year.

The five directors nominated for the top prize are directors of either universally acclaimed films, popular hits or both. It's sort of a return to traditional DGA thinking.

Spielberg, McDonagh, and Field are virtual certainties for Oscar nominations. The Daniels are a strong likelihood for the fourth slot providing all the diversity they are likely to show since one of them is Asian.

Kosinski is indeed the outlier. The fifth slot is more likely to go to a foreign film director, most likely either Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front or Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness than it is to a token woman which all of them, even Sarah Polley, would be seen as at this point.

If The Woman King isn't doing well, neither really is RRR. All Quiet is coming on strong at the end, so that's possible, but whether he's foreign or not, he's still a white guy. Other than Daniel Kwan, the Academy is likely to get a lot of flak for a lack of diversity. I'm actually surprised they haven't increased the Best Director slate to ten as well. Would fit in with their 10-wide Best Picture slate and would certainly grant more options for diversity.

Kosinski is probably the odd man out of this lineup, although it's possible Martin McDonagh doesn't carryover either. They overlooked him before. The Banshees of Inisherin is a more confidently directed film than Three Billboards... though.

Women Talking isn't showing up strong anywhere.

I think The Woman King is going to be forgotten. It came out too long ago, despite being generally well-liked. I actually thought it might get in for Best Ensemble or pick up an acting nomination for Lashana Lynch or Thuso Mbedu, but it didn't. Maybe a PGA nom.

Charlotte Wells is possible. It helps that the director's branch is increasingly internationalized but I'd put money on something for Edward Berger or S.S. Rajamouli. Since 2018, there's always been at least one foreign-language pick.

Obviously, this all-male slate is going to be an issue. Sarah Polley and Gina Prince-Bythewood are the only two who could end up with an Oscar nomination, though I wouldn't count out the late surge for <em>Aftersun</em> and Charlotte Wells. This helps Kosinski, but doesn't he strike you as the kind of director the Academy would snub? A 5-for-5 carryover seems unlikely.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM FOR 2022
Todd Field, TÁR
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR FOR 2022
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Audrey Diwan, Happening
John Patton Ford, Emily the Criminal
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic, Murina
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun