Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Only Dune is completely out, in my mind.

I fear it's gonna be Sling Blade over The English Patient all over again, only this time Sling Blade wins Best Picture. But maybe not.

Just barely under the wire (in between cooking steps) to comment on this category.

I'm honestly astonished how this one has played out. I thought Power of the Dog winning here was one of the surest prizes of the night. (I'm kind of unlucky in pinpointing such categories of late: last year, I thought best actor and cinematography were the easiest, and both ended in upsets.) Of all things people might praise about CODA, its script is the most ludicrous -- it's easily the least distinguished of the five nominated. But, as anonymous points out, that BAFTA win was a shocker. BAFTA has been pretty spot-on of late with screenplays -- though their out-there choices of Philomena and The Theory of Everything aren't so far in the past as to be totally forgotten.

I about 90% agree that CODA has to win this to be a viable best picture contender. (The remaining 10% is a mixture of paranoia, and wondering if the preferential ballot overtly favors sentimental movies, he way the Electoral College favors Republicans, in a way straight-up vote categories don't.)

I'm sticking with the Dog in the end -- it's every bit as much a writing achievement as a directing one -- and hoping to be spared the groan a CODA win would elicit.

The nominees:

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

I might as well finish this one off. This is yet another contentious category and a potential bellwether for Best Picture. For CODA to be able to pull off the huge statistic-breaking upset, it kind of HAS to win this (along with Supporting Actor). CODA's upset in the Adapted Screenplay category at the BAFTA's is what started people taking its momentum for Best Picture seriously. If it loses here, it pretty much loses Best Picture (if it wins, it can still lose Best Picture though) Logic says it will lose to The Power of the Dog whose victory here may secure its Best Picture win. Drive My Car is a possible spoiler.