Everything Old Is New Again

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
re: Power of the Dog

Sabin, your No Country comparison is what sticks in my mind. I think The Power of the Dog is still the nominal frontrunner - director + screenplay + at least one acting win is a pretty formidable argument. But it feels like all the bigger contenders (Belfast, West Side Story, King Richard, Power of the Dog, Dune) will end up on the lower end of their potential nomination range. Which could mean we have a really exciting slate OR a uniquely boring one, but in terms of what actually wins, I wouldn't hazard a guess.

Same.

[Okri]

Dench hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar in almost ten years. Is it really that weird that she’s not coat-tailing her way to a nomination this year for Belfast? This isn’t 2001 when she was easily doing that and Best Supporting Actress is too strong of a category for filler queens this year.

I mean, 2013 was a pretty strong roster - outside of the nominees, we had Emma Thompson, Julie Delpy, Greta Gerwig etc get some precursor attention. I sorta assume, to be frank, that Dench not being an active part of the campaign and Weinstein not managing the film (all but one of her nominations was under his aegis) is hurting her just as much as her relative non-entity of a role. But if you told me that Judi Dench had a key supporting role in a top tier best picture candidate, yeah - I'd ink her down for a nomination even though it's been ten years.

re: Power of the Dog

Sabin, your No Country comparison is what sticks in my mind. I think The Power of the Dog is still the nominal frontrunner - director + screenplay + at least one acting win is a pretty formidable argument. But it feels like all the bigger contenders (Belfast, West Side Story, King Richard, Power of the Dog, Dune) will end up on the lower end of their potential nomination range. Which could mean we have a really exciting slate OR a uniquely boring one, but in terms of what actually wins, I wouldn't hazard a guess.

[dws1982]

Big Magilla, you pick an old woman candidate every year to champion (one year it was Joan Plowright for Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont which you clung onto until the bitter end).

The This Had Oscar Buzz segment (from their episode on Prime I think) where they go into a digression on the poster for that movie is hilarious. I still go back and listen to it occasionally.

[Big Magilla]

If BAFTA nominates Dench, there is a good chance that Oscar will follow suit. If BAFTA ignores her, it would be a surprise if Oscar nominates her, but a pleasant one.

[Reza]

Big Magilla, you pick an old woman candidate every year to champion (one year it was Joan Plowright for Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont which you clung onto until the bitter end).

Plowright would have been an excellent inclusion in what was a pretty dismal set of nominees in the lead actress category in 2005.

[flipp525]

Big Magilla, you pick an old woman candidate every year to champion (one year it was Joan Plowright for Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont which you clung onto until the bitter end).

So, this Judi Dench thing is oddly comforting.

[Mister Tee]

There's a degree of self-selection and projection, of course, but underwhelmed. I'm genuinely surprised it's elicited any passion - I frankly have no idea how it won at TIFF.

Keep in mind that the Toronto line-up was pretty thin this year:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Toro ... lar_awards

Dune wasn't eligible for the Audience Award, and the rest of the roster either sucked or wasn't audience-friendly. The Power of the Dog finished third, which seems to be where slightly off-kilter but critically-acclaimed films land (I'm pretty sure Roma nabbed that spot).

Heck, it's a sentimental best picture contender right now, but it's coattails aren't long enough for Judi-frickin'-Dench. How weird is that?

I wouldn't count chickens on this just yet. Darkest Hour and Green Book were films I thought were safely buried, but ended up having AMPAS resurrections; the hokier, the more resilient. Dench on nominations day wouldn't shock me.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
There's a degree of self-selection and projection, of course, but underwhelmed. I'm genuinely surprised it's elicited any passion - I frankly have no idea how it won at TIFF. I feel like in any pre-pandemic year, it would be on the edges of the best picture list. Heck, it's a sentimental best picture contender right now, but it's coattails aren't long enough for Judi-frickin'-Dench. How weird is that?

flipp525 wrote
Dench hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar in almost ten years. Is it really that weird that she’s not coat-tailing her way to a nomination this year for Belfast? This isn’t 2001 when she was easily doing that and Best Supporting Actress is too strong of a category for filler queens this year.

I think you both have points. We could debate whether or not any of her previous nominations are filler queens, but I think it's more a testament to Belfast as a film that Judi Dench just doesn't have enough to to in the film to warrant a nomination. If the film presented her with a stronger arc and more scenes, I don't have any doubt that Judi Dench would at least be in the conversation.

To our previous conversation about The Power of the Dog, what I wonder is truly what is the beneficiary then if Campion's film underwhelms enough? Really, the recent Best Picture it reminds me of the most is No Country for Old Men: a dark western-ish film that defied some expectations and has an unexpected ending.* No Country for Old Men benefited from four other nominees and the old balloting rules, which simple stipulated a plurality of first place votes. Would it have won if the Best Picture ballot was expanded to ten and it needed to get to 50% + 1? I don't know. I suspect so largely based on the mood of the industry as well as the nature of the competition. I suspect that The Power of the Dog is a weaker front-runner than No Country for Old Men. Again, just a general sense that I get. We've been talking about the possibility of a true upset since the dawn of the new balloting procedure, sort of like a brokered convention. This year, we might actually get one.

Or, y'know, it'll just be Belfast.


*BTW, I'm not bringing this up to find the best analogy for The Power of the Dog. I'm only bringing this up to discuss the method of balloting.

[Big Magilla]

I am not the only one who thinks Dench's performance in Belfast was the film's best.

Here are Claudio and Nick from The Film Experience:

CLÁUDIO: I think Belfast has the best chances of those three. However, it's the least deserving of a double nomination. Unlike awards voters, I'm not fond of Branagh's movie, and that extends to the actors' efforts. Maybe my expectations were too high since I've long followed and admired her work on TV, but Caitriona Balfe was a disappointment. The trailer promised juicy drama, emotional highs, and teary Oscar clips. While the film provides those things, it does not allow the actress to build a consistent characterization. Her Ma never comes together, feeling more like a reel of actor highlights than an actual person.

What's more, she's in an excellent position to help ground the movie, give it a solid foundation, and even solve some of its issues. There is a version of this movie where Balfe intercedes where neither screenplay nor lensing do, to delineated differences between a parent seen through a child's perspective and a parent as an individual adult who has complexities beyond what their young can understand. But she doesn't. I think that's why my favorite Belfast player was Judi Dench. She does get a moment to exist beyond Buddy's imagination in an example of distinct, almost disruptive, tonality. In other words, the actress kills it in her final moment. It's the film's best scene, the only time the screen seems to vibrate with genuine sorrow instead of sugarcoated sentimentality. Sure, her accent work isn't perfect, and there's not much to the role, but if only one Belfast actress can be nominated, I hope it's Dench.

If you allow me some lunatic guess, I will go so far as predicting Dench to be this year's surprise inclusion and Balfe the glaring snub come nomination morning. As of late, it feels like there's always space for a veteran Oscar darling in this category. Beyond Negga, all the likely nominees are first-timers, which makes me anticipate some shocking absence, and Balfe's TV-centric stardom feels like an awards red flag. Like you on Moreno, SAG is the only factor that gives me pause. They are usually Dench's greatest champions. If they preferred Balfe's Ma over her Granny, it's hard to imagine AMPAS doing the reverse.

NICK: In the Belfast cast, Dench and Hinds do the best job at evoking a vivid, lived-in history that’s entirely outside the world of the movie. In her private reveries and unabashed wonder at the new marvels she sees at the movie theater, Dench endows the film with a configuration of discovery, nostalgia, and family love that easily outclasses Branagh’s flimsy depiction of it. I don’t love her in it but it’s good work in a film that needs it, and I suspect if categories were sorted like they were fifteen or twenty years ago, she and Hinds would be comfortably nestled in the Supporting categories while Balfe and Dornan duked it out in Lead.

Full article here:
http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2022/ ... efest.html

[flipp525]

Okri wrote
Meanwhile, I wonder if your feeling about West Side Story might see itself in Power of the Dog - I've heard from more people who were underwhelmed by the movie.

What do they think about Belfast?

There's a degree of self-selection and projection, of course, but underwhelmed. I'm genuinely surprised it's elicited any passion - I frankly have no idea how it won at TIFF. I feel like in any pre-pandemic year, it would be on the edges of the best picture list. Heck, it's a sentimental best picture contender right now, but it's coattails aren't long enough for Judi-frickin'-Dench. How weird is that?

Dench hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar in almost ten years. Is it really that weird that she’s not coat-tailing her way to a nomination this year for Belfast? This isn’t 2001 when she was easily doing that and Best Supporting Actress is too strong of a category for filler queens this year.

[Okri]

Okri wrote
Meanwhile, I wonder if your feeling about West Side Story might see itself in Power of the Dog - I've heard from more people who were underwhelmed by the movie.

What do they think about Belfast?

There's a degree of self-selection and projection, of course, but underwhelmed. I'm genuinely surprised it's elicited any passion - I frankly have no idea how it won at TIFF. I feel like in any pre-pandemic year, it would be on the edges of the best picture list. Heck, it's a sentimental best picture contender right now, but it's coattails aren't long enough for Judi-frickin'-Dench. How weird is that?

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Meanwhile, I wonder if your feeling about West Side Story might see itself in Power of the Dog - I've heard from more people who were underwhelmed by the movie.

What do they think about Belfast?

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I wonder if Dunst is a surprise omission from the final five. Smit-McPhee and Cumberbatch are leading contenders to win in their respective categories, as if Campion, but Dunst hasn't won anything major - she's not even contending in runners-up places. And we've seen candidates get dropped in similar circumstances (overshadowed by costars further ahead in the win conversation.

I think you're describing someone like Amy Adams in Vice. She showed up everywhere for nominations but nobody thought she was the best. She didn't really have a strong showcase in Vice. I think Kirsten Dunst has a stronger showcase of scenes and a more sympathetic character. I think she's a likely bet.

Caitriona Balfe is someone I'm less sure about. Belfast does not afford her a strong showcase of scenes.

[Okri]

Without comparing the similarities and differences between Ariana DeBose and Winona Ryder, my hunch at this moment is that the industry isn't terribly enamored with West Side Story leaving this category open for an upset. For example, a coattails victory for Kirsten Dunst. Or if BAFTA voters go with an alternative to DeBose, we should probably take that candidate seriously for an upset, regardless of whether they've shown up anywhere else at this point. Like, Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter or something.

I wonder if Dunst is a surprise omission from the final five. Smit-McPhee and Cumberbatch are leading contenders to win in their respective categories, as if Campion, but Dunst hasn't won anything major - she's not even contending in runners-up places. And we've seen candidates get dropped in similar circumstances (overshadowed by costars further ahead in the win conversation Meanwhile, I wonder if your feeling about West Side Story might see itself in Power of the Dog - I've heard from more people who were underwhelmed by the movie. That said, if this year felt more clearly like six-into-five, I'd be more comfortable dropping Dunst as a prediction - but after five (assuming Negga/Dunst/Debose/Ellis/Balfe) it seems like an undifferentiated mass of performers who have pros and cons.

What's more interesting to me is that many of the best picture contenders feel like in another scenario they'd be getting double nominations in the supporting categories (Dornan/Hinds; deBose/Moreno; Smit-McPhee/Plemons; Balfe/Dench) but none of them might happen now.

[flipp525]

Harriet Sansom Harris for Licorice Pizza would be a nice surprise in support.