Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

One does wonder if this group watches these movies, or if movies of this ilk even entice them whatsoever. How many people are in this group?

Normally, being able to see films in a timely fashion is what brings me down for topical comments regarding the Oscar selections. Last thing I saw in the theater was Guardians 2 with the 3 kids sadly...and that may now have been 6 months ago. I also have not kept up with much television either...one medium where it isn't nearly as hard with DVR and couch accessible viewing as well as about 22 to 50 minutes of time used...however, we did discover the Good Place last season and have enjoyed it each week for a year now... and must say it is one of the most innovative, original, and intelligent shows I can remember from broadcast tv since....Seinfeld? Ted Danson is borderline excellent and extremely deserving in my opinion...as well as a shocking nominee and winner judging by the other hip choices Aziz and Anthony Anderson and with a group still nominating Big Bang and Modern Family for series

I did see a couple of those films Ms. Munn was in - don't remember her in any of them.

There was nothing on Gordon's napkin except maybe her lipstick - it was black linen, couldn't have contained any writing. Yes, it was supposed to be a joke - a pretty sick one in keeping with her film's title.

I listened to Jenkins' rather rambling speech. It was fine that they applauded Gadot, but a standing ovation? Maybe after her speech, which was inspiring albeit in an obvious way, but before, for something called the #SEEHER award? We see her, we see her.

I did watch it and other than the really tacky "8 of the last 9" Best Supporting Actor winners bull shit, I thought it was a serviceable show and I think Munn did a fine job hosting it. Note that she's been in several movies, probably none you've watched, including Deliver Us from Evil, Magic Mike, X-Men: Apocalypse, Office Christmas Party, and is in the upcoming Ocean's 8.

Emily Gordon's napkin was their hastily prepared speech. She tossed it down as a joke.

They were applauding Gadot and her ambassadorship of the women's rights movement, which was all a part of Patty Jenkins' speech, which I'm not so certain you listened to.

Couldn't they have nominated Greer Garson as Best Actress to make it seven total, just like the guys?

Did anyone else watch this crapfest?

I have no idea who this Olivia Munn person and most of the presenters were. Are they all from CW shows? Some looked familiar, but all were irritating. And so were most of the winners.

It began with an unintelligible rap by some guy and Munn, followed by The Big Sick's win for "Best Comedy", accepted by its ill-prepared writers with the now totally obnoxious Emily V. Gordon realizing she came on stage with her napkin and throwing it on the floor for someone else to pick up and laughing about it.

Of all the people to give a standing ovation to - Wonder Woman! Maybe they though she was real!

Fortunately I kept dozing off through most of the TV awards. McDormand and Rockwell were the best - they had the good sense not to show up. The presenters were really pissed about that. They made a smug little comment about it being more important for Rockwell to be in rehearsal for this week's Saturday Night Live - it was! Chris Hemsworth, who presented Best Actress, had a prepared line that McDormand was busy putting up three billboards in Beverly Hills for the Oscar!

It should be noted that Get Out won the "lesser" genre prize, which makes me wonder if we're still undervaluing its potential. That Big Sick upset over Lady Bird, which went home empty-handed, seems out of place for this particular awards season.

Yeah, my excitement about Rockwell/Janney winning at the Globes was premised on the idea that this group would slavishly follow the critics' lead and rubber-stamp Dafoe/Metcalf. Swear to god, I think so little of the Broadcasters, I could believe they changed their ballots after Sunday to try to get in step with The New Consensus. Now I'm in the position of hoping SAG/BAFTA go elsewhere, because Rockwell/Janney across the board is just as dull as Dafoe/Metcalf would have been. (Same with McDormand. It's a great, wide-ranging year for actresses; how can the TV awards givers narrow it to one like this?)

This group, by the way, seemed surprisingly cool on Lady Bird overall -- giving The Big Sick best comedy film?

del Toro definitely seems to have pulled out in front. Do we think BAFTA will show home-town pride and go with Nolan?

I think, whatever else, best picture will remain a question mark right to the end -- not just because the TV prizes have so far gone for three different films (and PGA, at minimum, could introduce another title into the mix), but because the combination of preferential voting and the new membership might mean last year's stunning upset is not the last of its kind.

The top takeaways would have to be that this group further muddied the Best Picture race by passing on both Globe winners for Picture and Screenplay, instead choosing The Shape of Water and Get Out in those categories.

But these goons endorsed all four of HFPA's acting winners, including the supporting pair, both of which felt like jolts on Globe night.

And del Toro really seems to have pulled ahead in the Director race.

I feel dirty posting this, but here are their winners

Mister Tee wrote:First of all, I'm glad we settled on this thread title. They're the Broadcast Critics; calling themselves Critics Choice gives them a distinction they haven't earned.

But we still called them critics and that's also arguable!

Sabin wrote:I'm not much of a fan of Jessica Chastain so I'm inclined to bet against her. I just got the screener for Molly's Game, so I'll weigh in once I see it. The idea of this guarded actor trying to rattle of Aaron Sorkin dialogue isn't enticing.

Mister Tee's point -- that folks are assuming the Best Actress race is all locked up, and they shouldn't -- is a valid one, and the evidence from years past when people have said "these are the five!" when they maybe shouldn't have been so sure is ample.

That said, Chastain is obviously not Amy Adams in 2013, who won the Golden Globe (which seems extremely unlikely for Chastain) and was starring in a film that got ten Oscar nominations (which Molly's Game will not). I predicted Adams would get in that year, but I thought the omittee would be Meryl... I also predicted Adams last year, and again thought the omittee would be Meryl...

...and I'm just not inclined to predict Meryl getting omitted anymore. If you pressed me, I'd say it's more likely the final spot comes down to Chastain vs. Robbie -- the two actresses who aren't in top Best Picture candidates -- and at this moment, I'm inclined to think Robbie's breakthrough will edge out Chastain, who I quite like spouting that Aaron Sorkin dialogue, but who isn't as far out of her wheelhouse as some of her competition.

All of this is to say, this is how I'd predict today, not anything I think is a done deal.

Mister Tee wrote
A whole lot of people think Chastain is the sure omittee from the actress list-of-six. I have to say, it reminds me how people were just as convinced Amy Adams couldn't crack the list in 2013. Chastain has got very enthusiastic reviews for this performance -- more enthusiastic than Streep, from what I see -- and I don't count her out till nominations day. It is, however, telling that they didn't expand to 7 to squeeze in Judi Dench -- she seemed right up their alley.

When I first started reading this paragraph, I thought you were going to say Amy Adams in 2016. I'd forgotten you had wizard skills, because her snub for Arrival was something I certainly didn't see coming. But you meant 2013. After reviews started coming in for Saving Mr. Banks and August, Osage County, I was pretty confident that Adams would make the cut. I'm not much of a fan of Jessica Chastain so I'm inclined to bet against her. I just got the screener for Molly's Game, so I'll weigh in once I see it. The idea of this guarded actor trying to rattle of Aaron Sorkin dialogue isn't enticing.

Mister Tee wrote
The wide supporting actress field seems to cover the waterfront. It seems to be a given in blogger world that Downsizing is a bomb and Hong Chau is an insult to Asians; this placement suggests some feel otherwise. I feel the need to point out that 1) Downsizing has a 74 on Metacritic, just one point lower than "sure to be nominated" Darkest Hour...

This is the only point I wanted to argue. After seeing it, I'm not sure that Darkest Hour is getting nominated at all. But without seeing Downsizing, yeah, Darkest Hour has a better shot than Downsizing.

There are different critical expectations from a Joe Wright movie and an Alexander Payne movie. People expect less from Joe Wright than Alexander Payne -- and sure, I'd imagine there are some on this board that would disagree. But an Alexander Payne movie at the very least needs to be smart. Even The Descendants, which I hated, got an 89% on RT. His movies basically fall somewhere between 85% and 95%. Right now, Downsizing has a 64%. Only 58 critics have weighed in so I'm sure that can go up or down a little bit, but at this point it seems pretty clear that Downsizing probably isn't his best work. Let alone, there are a lot of people that are put off by Matt Damon right now, following the story that he tried to hush up a story outing Harvey Weinstein years ago (true or not). Downsizing could very well end up bucking the odds like We Bought a Zoo (which has a better RT score right now), but to me it looks like damaged goods. Darkest Hour shouldn't be the bar they had to clear anymore than We Bought a Zoo.

The Original BJ wrote
I've seen Downsizing -- I wrote about it in its own thread. I find Chau's character pretty broad, but one thing she could have going for her is that she has a decent number of big Oscar clip-type scenes. Whether or not those are enough to carry along an unknown actress for a film that doesn't seem to be in contention elsewhere remains to be seen. Blige is sort of in the opposite position -- she's very famous, in a film people like, but just doesn't have that much to do in it. I'm still fairly baffled she's getting this kind of attention. I could definitely see this race settling into the five Sabin lists.

I guess working in Chau's favor is that you'd have to go all the way back to Election to find a movie that didn't have an Oscar-nominated performance directed by Alexander Payne (sadly, that's for sure the one that should've been nominated).

I don't understand the affection for Blige at all. I have no idea how she became runner up to Laurie Metcalf at LAFCAA because, y'know, the critics actually watch the films! Working in her favor might be people who check her name off before seeing the film.

However it is worth noting that last year was historic in that there were more people of color nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Davis, Harris, Spencer) than white (Kidman, Williams), and this year might repeat again if it's Mary J. Blige, Tiffany Haddish, and Octavia Spencer against Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. Of course, that raises another question about the nature of representation and acceptance of leading roles vs. supporting roles but that's for another year. #OscarSoLeadingWhite

Sabin, you KNOW why they have seven nominations. They have to cover all of their bases to make sure every Oscar nominee was predicted by them first!

It does sure seem like the Best Picture field has pretty quickly coalesced to these ten, with Phantom Thread still maybe in the discussion as a Serious Man-type artier Oscar nominee replacing one or two of the on-the-bubble candidates. The real action is in the Director race, where there's a real possibility the Oscar, Globe, and DGA lineups vary far more wildly from one another than usual, simply because there are so many potential candidates.

Darkest Hour is one of the films that seemed a slight wild card (i.e. the kind of movie that critics' awards might pass on but could do well further on), and it performed at about the lower end of expectations: Picture (probably just barely), Actor, and a few techs, with Director/Screenplay/the supporting cast failing to place.

I didn't even mention Daniel Kaluuya as a possibility in my mid-year roundup, but I think Sabin is right that he has to be considered about as solidly in the Best Actor mix as anyone past Oldman/Chalamet. The fact that he carries such a solid Best Picture candidate -- when so many other possibilities come from movies virtually no one saw/liked -- is a real benefit to him in this year.

I also think Chastain is the odd-one-out in Best Actress. (And I promise to give Streep another viewing to see what so many find so miraculous about that performance.)

This is the first inclination that the months-ago buzz for Patrick Stewart could amount to something...but I still have serious doubts about this being anything other than a stray mention, given how many strong contenders there are in far more Academy-accessible films.

I've seen Downsizing -- I wrote about it in its own thread. I find Chau's character pretty broad, but one thing she could have going for her is that she has a decent number of big Oscar clip-type scenes. Whether or not those are enough to carry along an unknown actress for a film that doesn't seem to be in contention elsewhere remains to be seen. Blige is sort of in the opposite position -- she's very famous, in a film people like, but just doesn't have that much to do in it. I'm still fairly baffled she's getting this kind of attention. I could definitely see this race settling into the five Sabin lists.

First of all, I'm glad we settled on this thread title. They're the Broadcast Critics; calling themselves Critics Choice gives them a distinction they haven't earned.

It's almost touching to read Nathaniel at Film Experience as he goes through these. He's a voting member of the group, and he SO wants them to be legit. He can't accept that they are today what they've always been: a glorified bunch of bloggers trying to predict the Oscars. They have 6-7 wide slates, the better to make sure any Oscar potentials are cited ("We predicted all 20 acting nominees!"). They claim this is because of "ties". Yet, miraculously, in the one category where there are basically no alternatives -- adapted screenplay -- they end up a clean 5. Quelle coincidence!

The only news here is that they see the field the way most do -- I noted last week 11 films had a shot at a best picture nomination; all of them made their list of 10 (the one AWOL, Phantom Thread, will be a candidate of, if anyone, the hipper AMPAS wing -- and the BFCA doesn't have such a wing). In the tougher-to-narrow-down directing category, they hedge their bets by naming 7, but still leave off McDonagh and Baker (as well as PTAnderson). Having Florida Project for just film and supporting actor suggests they were dragged into the best picture mention by critical pressure rather than personal enthusiasm. Also, plugging in Darkest Hour for film but not having it in most tech categories, or supporting acting as some have been advocating, tells me the film is at the very weak end of best picture hopefuls, but they don't want to risk missing a retro resurgence at AMPAS.

The actor list is pretty much anyone with the faintest hope of an Oscar nod...unless Jeremy Renner pulls a surprise.

A whole lot of people think Chastain is the sure omittee from the actress list-of-six. I have to say, it reminds me how people were just as convinced Amy Adams couldn't crack the list in 2013. Chastain has got very enthusiastic reviews for this performance -- more enthusiastic than Streep, from what I see -- and I don't count her out till nominations day. It is, however, telling that they didn't expand to 7 to squeeze in Judi Dench -- she seemed right up their alley.

Supporting actor is one spot where potential nominees were left off -- either Michael Shannon or Idris Elba have at least a slim chance. I see this Patrick Stewart thing is starting to show up on a few of the low-tier critics' lists, as well as here. It strikes me as one of those things that younger bloggers who watch every Marvel movie might be more inclined to support than your average AMPAS member. Oh, by the way: nice to see Stuhlbarg finally crashed his way through, as well as Jenkins.

The wide supporting actress field seems to cover the waterfront. It seems to be a given in blogger world that Downsizing is a bomb and Hong Chau is an insult to Asians; this placement suggests some feel otherwise. I feel the need to point out that 1) Downsizing has a 74 on Metacritic, just one point lower than "sure to be nominated" Darkest Hour; 2) audiences with whom I've seen the Downsizing coming attraction have laughed quite a bit -- it might not be a commercial dud; 3) I've seen no Asian-press attacks on Chau -- it seems to be largely Caucasians offended on their behalf who are trashing the work. All of which is to say, don't be so sure she won't survive to an Oscar nod. It's mostly moot, anyway, as Metcalf/Janney is the entire race; the others are just competing for three also-ran slots. (ON EDIT: I just noticed one name missing: Melissa Leo. If this group, so susceptible to peer pressure, didn't come through, her campaign seems on life support.)

What is up with this seven nominations bullshit?

Best Picture
The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It seems like they usually call eight of nine, seven of eight, or eight of eight. So, The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, and The Florida Project are the most on the cusp.

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Two things of note:
-- This is the first showing of Jake Gyllenhaal for Stronger, a performance that looked like a sure bet to get him back as a nominee after two valiant efforts with two huge demerits: a) the film was a flop, b) there were two of him. We'll see if the Hollywood Foreign Press lists Andrew Garfield for Breathe but this is a weak field and he could still get in if enough people see him.
-- This is the THIRD showing for Daniel Kaluuya. He's been nominated by Film Independent, Gotham, and now here. When I first saw Get Out, I thought there was no way he'd get nominated even though he so clearly deserves mention. It's almost unthinkable that he misses out on a mention from the Hollywood Foreign Press, and the SAG-AFTRA merger has definitely favored black films and performances. If gets all five of those, he has a real shot at a nomination.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

These are the six. It sure looks like Chastain is the odd one out.

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Last week, I was talking to my critic friend about Logan. It's a terrific, slightly flawed film with two strong performances in it. Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart. We both agreed that Stewart had been lost in the mix a bit. Yesterday, he got a mention from the Detroit Film Critics. As the 90 year old Professor X struggling with a horrific crime he can barely remember, I think he's very touching. I think genre bias will work against him, but right now there really is only one performance that doesn't have a co-star in competition (DaFoe). Maybe Stewart could be the other? Doubt it, but I'd like to see Patrick Stewart get something for a very strong career.

Credit for not honoring Rylance...

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

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I remain skeptical about two of these contenders. Not Haddish and Spencer. Blige and Chau. Having seen Mudbound, what are people seeing in her performance? She's fine and entirely not a standout. Where is her moment or her scene? I'm baffled. I haven't seen Downsizing but it seems to be a bit of a lemon. It doesn't appear anyone on this board has seen it either. The role sounds condescending.

Haddish, Hunter, Janney, Metcalf, and Spencer seem to be where the race is right now.