criddic3 wrote:anonymous, I have to nitpick. You forgot to bold Juliette Binoche, Frances McDormand and Jack Nicholson. They all went on to win the Oscar in 1996 and 1997, respectively.
Does Jack have any chance this year, or is The Bucket List just a fluke?
And Hilary Swank in Breakthrough as well. I've corrected them.
I think The Bucket List is a fluke.
Speaking of Rob Reiner, I seem to remember an interview that he did after he was snubbed for Best Director for A Few Good Men. He said he'd like the Best Director category be abolished and instead, have the director and producer accept the Oscar for Best Picture.
anonymous, I have to nitpick. You forgot to bold Juliette Binoche, Frances McDormand and Jack Nicholson. They all went on to win the Oscar in 1996 and 1997, respectively.
Does Jack have any chance this year, or is The Bucket List just a fluke?
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
Damien wrote:And while I liked Hal Holbrook's much-buzzed performance in the movie, I was even more impressed by Brian Dierker (Keener's "old man"). According to IMDb, this is his first picture/ Anyone know his background?
Agree about Keener, who I've never really cared much for, but who really got past the smugness here and was, like you said, both heartbreaking and wise.
Here's an article about Brian Dierker.
Dierker runs Adventure Sports Services, an Arizona company that helps filmmakers and commercial directors shoot rafting and kayaking scenes on the Colorado River and through the Grand Canyon. "Wild" director Sean Penn hired Dierker to scout locations and drive a camera boat, and the two became friends. That friendship led Penn to offer Dierker a part in the movie.
"I was flattered, but I turned him down," Dierker says. "He can be pretty persuasive, though."
Penn wanted Dierker to play Rainey, a middle-age hippie nomad who travels the country with his beloved partner, a free-spirited earth mother named Jan (Catherine Keener). The two meet the movie's hero, Chris McCandless, early in his travels and they form a fast, enduring bond.
Dierker has just a few scenes in the movie, but he steals every one of them, making Rainey a man who provides both comfort and comic relief.
"He's amazing," says actress Kristen Stewart, who shared screen time with Dierker. "Those lines weren't scripted. I read the script and I don't know where they came from. But boy when he speaks, he puts across a feeling that's just beautiful."
Dierker worked with Penn on his dialogue, modeling Rainey on men he met and times he had while living a "fairly non-structured" life in the 1970s and 1980s.
"A lot of Vietnam vets came to the Grand Canyon in the 1970s to be boatmen," Dierker says. "It was an off-the-cuff, free-spirited life."
A life far from movie premieres and parties like the ones Dierker has attended recently in Toronto and Hollywood.
"Well, it's been fun," Dierker says. "For me, the best moment was sitting next to Hal Holbrook at the premiere in Toronto. It was an honor to be seated next to that man, and when I saw tears well up in his eyes watching the movie, I was sure glad that Sean asked me to be in the movie."
Big Magilla wrote:Changing gears, I think the one who's in the most trouble is Cate Blanchett. "The performance of the year" they're calling it on those other boards which I only take a peripheral glance at now and then, but enough to be sick of her and her film without even seeign it. She loses to Amy Ryan.
What I find perplexing is that no one has been mentioning Catherine Keener in Into The Wild. I just saw it today, and it's such a lovely performance; subtly heartbreaking and wise, and so much more impressive than her nominated yawn-inducing work as Harper Lee in Capote. It's a classic Supporting type performance.
And while I liked Hal Holbrook's much-buzzed performance in the movie, I was even more impressed by Brian Dierker (Keener's "old man"). According to IMDb, this is his first picture/ Anyone know his background?
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
Mister Tee wrote:Bourne making the list may be baffling to all the He-Man-Greengrass-Haters-Club members here,
LMAO, and love from Alfalfa, Spanky, Buckwheat and Porky! Of course, Alfalfa dressed up in drag and went to see Bourne 3 on opening day.
Thank you, Damien. I'm glad someone got my reference.
A few more takes, upon reflection and in reaction:
I didn't have There Will Be Blood in my predicted ten because I presumed it would be the divisive sort of film the NBR has skipped over in the past. The film's Oscar hopes are probably with the writers and directors, not best picture, and Day-Lewis, though he seems a likely nominee, will just be one of several contenders for the actual win.
I likewise figured I'm Not There wouldn't be to NBR's taste (any movie Rex Reed despises was sure to hit NBRers the same way), which is why I predicted Amy Ryan to win. I think Blanchett, barring a shutout from the real critics, is still a shoo-in nominee, but Ryan, or some other more user-friendly candidate, is more likely to take the statue in February.
And Oscar Guy, you're really being stubborn on this: Ryan is getting nominated for sure.
Let's wait on the other critics before crowning Christie (however deserving she may be); I think Linney is still a possible contender. I may not even stop thinking that till after the Globes.
As Magilla more or less points out, The English Patient looked in dire trouble after it lost NBR, and then did even worse with the other critics' groups, but went on to a nine-Oscar triumph. So I don't see how Atonement -- which did make the list, after all -- is suddenly in such jeopardy.
BEST DIRECTOR: Tim Burton will either get nominated and win or not get nominated at all.
Illogic like that makes no sense to me at all.
I said if the pattern holds up. The past two directors that won in NBR also won the Oscar.
But those are events that--like snubs of Michael Mann and Edward Zwick, the two previous winners in that category--are unrelated to, and independent of, Tim Burton's win.
Stats are fine, but I have to admit that, right now, the NBR list looks like it could very well duplicate at the Oscars.
It seems to me that Best Picture is currently shaping into a three-way race between No Country, Sweeney Todd and Atonement; and I'm thinking that Michael Clayton could very well end up a Best Pic nominee--taking American Gangster aside (which actually had a strong young urban male appeal, naturally), Clayton was the most successful of the fall's serious adult dramas and the Academy will take note of that.
But will that translate into a Best Actor nod for Clooney? Possibly--he's well-liked and respected, a previous Oscar winner, and the success of his film proves that he is truly a genuine movie star.
Julie Christie can pretty much start rehearsing her Oscar speech--but keeping an occasional glance over her shoulder, but not a worrisome glance.
Casey Affleck looks to be in the running for Supporting Actor--yes, the category confusion could work against him, but it seems, sadly, that everyone else is buying the concept of his Lead character being Supporting, so why not the Academy? I still think it's Javier Bardem's to lose, but Affleck's nomination will be not only a reflection of his great performance but his emergence this year as one of our best young actors.
And I think Amy Ryan is pretty well in for a Supporting Actress nomination; this is a category that is seemingly more comfortable with unsympathetic characters (see: Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue, Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted) so she could win.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
Big Magilla wrote:On the other hand, No Country and Sweeny could cancel each other out and the prize could still fall to Atonement.
I don't see what No Country and Sweeny have in common so that they could cancel each other. They seem to be completely different movies, except maybe for the fact that they are both works by critically regarded directors, but then this could influence the Best Director race, not Best Picture.
While I agree with you that Cate Blanchett's fans too soon have predicted for her an Oscar which might not happen this year, we must admit that the NBR was the group less likely to appreciate and give an award to a movie like I'm Still There. Her fate will be decided by the critics' prizes, and I think that a nomination at least (especially in a category like Best Supporting Actress which this year doesn't seem impossibly crowded) is almost sure.
As for the Best Picture category, even more than last year it's difficult, at this moment, to see clearly through it. Both No Country for Old Men and Atonement should be there. And it is true that Sweeny Todd could be another strong contender. The other two? At this point I'd go for Michael Collins in fourth place and, in fifth, Into the Wild or The Kite Runner or one which hasn't made the NBR's list - Away from Her could be a possibility. But it's really too early still.
