My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Sabin
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Sabin »

Some additional thoughts...
- Yes, Matt Damon is catching some deserving flak for admitting that he used the F-word until very recently. He may as well finally announce his support for gay marriage! But his performance in Stillwater certainly has to be in the picture. I haven't seen it but it's garnered almost universal raves. The biggest knock on it is that the film is underperforming. But it's underperforming in an era where that doesn't mean anything anymore. He's a three-time acting nominee. He might not end up making the cut but at this point, I don't see any reason not to predict him.

- Similarly, why not predict Don't Look Up. Adam McKay has a very impressive track record as of late picking up two Picture, Director, and Writing nominations (and a win). He's also proven very successful at getting his actors nominated and his latest feature is absolutely star-studded. It's also a movie that looks to tap into feelings of impending apocalypse that are very in style right now. The biggest knock against it that I can see is that Netflix seems to be cursed. But, who knows? It's also worth noting this about Leonardo DiCaprio's career: since 2010, he's starred in eight narrative features. Five have been up for Best Picture. Three have gotten him Best Actor nominations. In an era where we basically don't have movie stars anymore (we only have franchise attachments), he's one of the last ones standing. All of which to say, Don't Look Up probably deserves to be taken seriously. NOTE: can't say I'm not excited at the prospect of people on this board reacting to the idea of the phrase Oscar nominee David Sirota.

- I don't have much interest in Being the Ricardos but it's an Aaron Sorkin written and directed film. It's probably going to pick up some attention. Also, look at this logline:
Takes place over the course of a week during production of I Love Lucy, which sees Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz encounter a crisis that could jeopardize their careers and marriage.
This structure is the most Aaron Sorkin thing in the world isn't it. Takes place over the course of a week... It's probably worth including for Best Actress and however Javier Bardem is pushed.

- Looking forward to hearing word about Parallel Mothers. I've written elsewhere about a second mainstream breakthrough for Pedro Almodovar after roughly a decade plus out of fashion.

- The new Denzel Washington directed film is A Journal for Jordan. It sounds pretty clichéd to me, but he did just direct a Best Picture nominee, so who knows?

- There's almost nothing I want to see more than The Worst Person in the World at this point. Cannes reception was pretty ecstatic. Joachim Trier is monumentally talented. In a sparse year, it's conceivable that the film's star wins some critics awards and breaks through. Perhaps more for the film.

- Passing got some favorable notices at Sundance. It's conceivable that Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga come back into the conversation.
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Reza
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Reza »

Sabin wrote:- I have no idea why I haven't been paying closer attention to Nightmare Alley. It's Guillermo Del Toro's first follow-up after winning Best Picture and Director. It could work. It could also be very goofy.
I'm curious why you think it could be "goofy"? Haven't you seen the 1947 version with Tyrone Power? Riveting film and story. Not goofy at all. And if its anywhere near as good as the original version then the lead actor (Bradley Cooper) should be part of the Best Actor lineup. Tyrone Power was robbed of a nod back then. I would also add Cate Blanchett to the supporting actress lineup along with Toni Colette. Granted this new version is not a remake of the 1947 film but a re-adaptation of the novel. Going by the story and the nasty characters this should be an interesting film right up Del Toro's sense of macabre alley.
Sabin
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Sabin »

These predictions are as good as any we're going to see. Just a few scattered thoughts:

- There is a real nerdiness to a lot of these contenders. This isn't a reflection on you but rather the industry as a whole: Dune, Last Night in Soho, Nightmare Alley... On the one hand, I have a hard time imagining all of them getting in. That being said, hey, that's where the industry is at these days, right? Reinterpreting our past and our future through the lens of fantasy/science-fiction.

- You have Dune and The Power of the Dog both with 11 nominations. At this point, I think it's likelier that Dune grabs the most nominations just based on Denis Villeneuve's recent output. It's been a very long time since Jane Campion has done anything noteworthy. Her film is set to premiere in three weeks or so, so we will see.

- We have two Ridley Scott movies coming out this fall: House of Gucci and The Last Duel. House of Gucci seems to be the one that might go over well if it's of any quality. It's a film he's been trying to get made for decades. I'm not a huge Scott fan but perhaps we should be open to the possibility of it being good. It's not as though his recent output has been universally poor or unchallenging.

- I have no idea why I haven't been paying closer attention to Nightmare Alley. It's Guillermo Del Toro's first follow-up after winning Best Picture and Director. It could work. It could also be very goofy. I happen to be in the minority of thinking that The Shape of Water didn't work.

- I have to imagine West Side Story will be a bigger pull for down ballot nominations like Production Design and Costume Design.

- I like the showing for CODA.

- Is there a worse name for a movie out there than Soggy Bottom? What we know about it is that it's a coming of age film set in the 1970s about a young man who wants to be an actor. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this could be a big hit. I say this because it sounds fairly accessible and accessibility is usually the big thing standing in the way of Paul Thomas Anderson and the audience.

- I have no idea what's going to win Best Picture. It's harder and harder to know what one looks like but I'm coming up short.
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Big Magilla
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Big Magilla »

Pretty good predictions overall, but I have my doubts about tick...tick...Boom! being nominated for anything. It was such a minor musical to begin with, conceived as a one-man show, expanded to three characters on stage and now has a cast of 26 or more doing what in support of Andrew Garfield?
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My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by anonymous1980 »

It would be nice to revisit this before the end of the year to see how way off or frighteningly close I came.

BEST PICTURE
CODA
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Hand of God
House of Gucci
Mass
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Soggy Bottom
tick...tick...BOOM


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Denis Villenueve, Dune
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick...tick...BOOM
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Emilia Jones, CODA
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin, CODA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Last Night in Soho
Fran Kranz, Mass
Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sian Heder, CODA
Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth and Denis Villenueve, Dune
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Levenson, tick...tick...BOOM!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Greig Fraser, Dune
Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch
Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST FILM EDITING
Joe Walker, Dune
Claire Simpson, House of Gucci
Paul Machliss, Last Night in Soho
Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley
Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan, Dune
Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch
Janty Yates, House of Gucci
Clint Ramos, Respect

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hans Zimmer, Dune
Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
Kris Bowers, King Richard
Alexandre Desplat, Nightmare Alley
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Beyond the Shore", CODA
"A Lin-Manuel Miranda song", Encanto
"Here I Am", Respect
"No Time to Die", No Time To Die
"So May We Start", Annette

BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
Godzilla v. Kong
Spider-Man: No Way Home


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Spencer
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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