Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[Sabin]

I'll do mine. I can't believe this year is coming to a close already.


Best Picture
Argo
Django Unchained (if seven)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (if eight)
Les Miserables
Life of Pi (if six)
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom (if nine)
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchinaed
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lucy Alibar & Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
William Nicholson, Les Miserables
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio, Argo

Best Original Score
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty
Danny Elfman, Silver Linings Playbook
Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
John Williams, Lincoln

Best Original Song
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend”, Ted
“Midnight Run”, Lawless
“Skyfall”, Skyfall
“Suddenly”, Les Miserables
“Touch the Sky”, Brave

Best Foreign-Language Film
Amour [Austria]
The Intouchables [France]
Lore [Australia]
No [Chile]
A Royal Affair [Denmark]

Best Animated Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph

Best Cinematography
Danny Cohen, Les Miserables
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained

Best Film Editing
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Makeup
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Impossible
Life of Pi
Prometheus


Current tallies
Les Miserables - 12
Lincoln - 11
Zero Dark Thirty - 9
Silver Linings Playbook - 8
Argo - 7
Django Unchained, Life of Pi - 6
Beasts of the Southern Wild - 4
Moonrise Kingdom - 2

[Reza]

My pre-precursor Oscar winners from anonymous1980's pre-precusor nomination predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Zero Dark Thirty (Columbia Pictures) Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal and Megan Ellison, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Judi Dench, Skyfall

BEST SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
Zero Dark Thirty
written by Mark Boal

BEST SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED or PUBLISHED
Silver Linings Playbook
screenplay by David O. Russell
based on the novel by Matthew Quick.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria) Michael Haneke, director

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave (Disney/PIXAR) Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Eve Stewart (production design) & John Botton (set decoration), Les Miserables

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Skyfall", Skyfall
music & lyrics by Adele and Paul Epworth

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Richard King, The Dark Knight Rises

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, Richard Taylor and Eric Reynolds, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Daniel Parker, Heike Marker and Jeremy Woodhead, Cloud Atlas

[anonymous1980]

My pre-precursor Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Amour (Sony Pictures Classics) Margaret Menegoz, producer.

Argo (Warner Bros.) Ben Affleck, George Clooney and Grant Heslov, producers.

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight) Michael Gottwald, Dan Hanvey and Josh Penn, producers.

Les Miserables (Universal Pictures/Working Title) Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Cameron Mackintosh, producers.

Life of Pi (20th Century Fox) Ang Lee, David Womark and Gil Netter, producers.

Lincoln (Dreamworks Pictures) Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg, producers.

Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Company) Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon and Donna Gigliotti, producers.

Zero Dark Thirty (Columbia Pictures) Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal and Megan Ellison, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Ben Affleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, SIlver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

BEST SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN

Amour
written by Michael Haneke

Django Unchained
written by Quentin Tarantino

The Master
written by Paul Thomas Anderson

Moonrise Kingdom
written by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty
written by Mark Boal

BEST SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED or PUBLISHED

Argo
screenplay by Chris Terrio
based on the books The Great Escape by Joshuah Bearman and The Master of Disguise by Antonio J. Mendez.

Beasts of the Southern Wild
screenplay by Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar
based on the stage play Juicy and Delicious by Lucy Alibar.

Life of Pi
screenplay by David Magee
based on the novel by Yann Martel

Lincoln
screenplay by Tony Kushner
based on the book Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln by Doris Kearns Goodwin.

Silver Linings Playbook
screenplay by David O. Russell
based on the novel by Matthew Quick.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria) Michael Haneke, director
Beyond the Hills (Romania) Cristian Mingiu, director
Bwakaw (The Philippines) Jun Robles Lana, director
The Intouchables (France) Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors
A Royal Affair (Denmark) Nikolai Arcel, director

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave (Disney/PIXAR) Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie (Disney) Tim Burton
ParaNorman (Laika) Sam Butler and Chris Fell
Rise of the Guardians (Dreamworks) Peter Ramsey
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney Animation) Rich Moore

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
Danny Cohen, Les Miserables
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Roger Deakins, Skyfall

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sarah Greenwood (production design) & Katie Spencer (set decoration), Anna Karenina
Hugh Bateup and Uni Hanisch (production design) & Rebecca Alleway and Peter Walpole (set decoration), Cloud Atlas
Dan Hennah (production design) & Andy McLaren and Ben Milsom (set decoration), The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Eve Stewart (production design) & John Botton (set decoration), Les Miserables
Rick Carter (production design) & Jim Erickson and Peter T. Frank (set decoration), Lincoln

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
William Goldenberg, Argo
Chris Dickens, Les Miserables
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Stuart Baird, Skyfall
William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
John Williams, Lincoln
Henry Jackman, Wreck-It Ralph
Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend", Ted
music by Walter Murphy & lyrics by Seth MacFarlane

"Let It Grow", Dr. Seuss' The Lorax
music & lyrics by John Powell and Cinco Paul

"Skyfall", Skyfall
music & lyrics by Adele and Paul Epworth

"Suddenly", Les Miserables
music by Claude-Michel Schonberg & lyrics by Alan Boublil

"Touch the Sky", Brave
music by Alex Mandel & lyrics by Alex Mandel and Mark Andrews

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
Paco Delgado, Les Miserables
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
Kasia Walicka-Maimone, Moonrise Kingdom
Manon Rasmussen, A Royal Affair

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Unsun Song, Argo
Andy Nelson, Simon Hayes and Dominic GIbbs, Les Miserables
Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson and Ron Judkins, Lincoln
Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and Stuart Wilson, Skyfall
Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Christopher Boyes and Frank E. Eulner, The Avengers
Richard King, The Dark Knight Rises
Philip Stockton, Life of Pi
Karen M. Baker and Per Hallberg, Skyfall
Paul N.J. Ottosson, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Erik Nash, Guy Williams, Colin Strause and Eric Strause, The Avengers
Stephane Cerretti, Uli Nefzer, Scott Benza and Lubo Hristov, Cloud Atlas
Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb, The Dark Knight Rises
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, Richard Taylor and Eric Reynolds, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Bill Westenhofer, Daryl Sawchuck, Richard Mahon and Jean-Martin Desmarais, Life of Pi

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Daniel Parker, Heike Marker and Jeremy Woodhead, Cloud Atlas
Peter King and Richard Findlater, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Leo Corey Castellano and Miia Kovero, Lincoln

WHEW!!!

[bizarre]

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

Nicole Kidman for a austere arthouse film wherein she has a quasi-romantic relationship with a ten year-old?

Nicole Kidman's work in Birth is absolutely one of her top five performances. I could see it not necessarily appealing to the Academy's tastes, but it certainly deserved to.

I wasn't arguing the quality of any of those performances - I can appreciate Kidman's and Thurman's in particular - I was just pointing out their lack of appeal to the Academy's usual tastes.

[FilmFan720]

I wasn't saying anything against the quality of work in 2004...I was merely looking at it from a list of Oscar possibilities. I would put Delpy, Kidman, Thurman and several others over some of the actual nominees, but from a prediction basis, a lot of those performances did not stand a chance.

[Sabin]

And I know it's no favorite of many on this board, but there's also her incredible performance in Dogville. And of course, the sublime Julie Delpy in Before Sunset.

[flipp525]

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

Nicole Kidman for a austere arthouse film wherein she has a quasi-romantic relationship with a ten year-old?

Nicole Kidman's work in Birth is absolutely one of her top five performances. I could see it not necessarily appealing to the Academy's tastes, but it certainly deserved to.

[The Original BJ]

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

FilmFan was probably referring to the shallow pool of selection. Quality of the eventual nominees aside, who else was in the running? Uma Thurman for the sequel to a movie she didn't get nominated for? Nicole Kidman for a austere arthouse film wherein she has a quasi-romantic relationship with a ten year-old? Zhang Ziyi in a wu xia? The teenaged Emmy Rossum in a critically reviled musical? There was no one else.

I was referring to the short list of Oscar eligible actresses. From what I remember, with the slight possibility of Kidman sneaking in, that line-up was set into stone pretty quickly in Awards Season. They are a great line-up, but they happened to be a great starting five with no one on the bench threatening to creep in. That's all I meant (and I love Moreno in that film).

I guess what I'd argue is, often in "great" years for categories, the fields do get sewn up with so many strong candidates that few alternates beyond them are allowed to emerge as Oscar players. (In addition to the '04 Best Actress slate, the same category in '06 and '10 offered about the same scenario.)

In contrast, about a dozen names seemed genuinely in the running for Best Actress in '03, but I'd consider that a pretty weak year -- the field was so large because so few actresses were able to stake a solid claim on a nomination.

Let me put it another way: I don't think Catalina Sandino Moreno made it in in '04 simply because there were no other options. The also-rans (Julie Delpy, Nicole Kidman, Uma Thurman -- all quite strong performances by me) just never got much Oscar traction once it became clear Catalina had broken away from the pack. You'd have to think in a weaker year, '04's leftovers would be more widely discussed as possibilities. Hence, my disagreement with calling '04 a dry year in the category...

...especially when compared to THIS year. Yes, a lot of names are being thrown about as possibilities, but as very strong candidates (as in Best Actor)? Or because voters have to nominate SOMEBODY in each of those five spots? In a year like '04, would Quevanzhané Wallis (or, for god's sakes, Judi Dench, if that's actually a possibility) even be considered in the running? I don't think so. It's only mid-November -- with most of the candidates unseen in actual release, so who really knows how they'll fair -- but "competitive" isn't the word I'd use to describe the slate that looms over the horizon.

[FilmFan720]

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

FilmFan was probably referring to the shallow pool of selection. Quality of the eventual nominees aside, who else was in the running? Uma Thurman for the sequel to a movie she didn't get nominated for? Nicole Kidman for a austere arthouse film wherein she has a quasi-romantic relationship with a ten year-old? Zhang Ziyi in a wu xia? The teenaged Emmy Rossum in a critically reviled musical? There was no one else.

I was referring to the short list of Oscar eligible actresses. From what I remember, with the slight possibility of Kidman sneaking in, that line-up was set into stone pretty quickly in Awards Season. They are a great line-up, but they happened to be a great starting five with no one on the bench threatening to creep in. That's all I meant (and I love Moreno in that film).

[bizarre]

Huh? The 2004 Best Actress lineup was fabulous, the best of the entire decade in my opinion.

FilmFan was probably referring to the shallow pool of selection. Quality of the eventual nominees aside, who else was in the running? Uma Thurman for the sequel to a movie she didn't get nominated for? Nicole Kidman for a austere arthouse film wherein she has a quasi-romantic relationship with a ten year-old? Zhang Ziyi in a wu xia? The teenaged Emmy Rossum in a critically reviled musical? There was no one else.

[bizarre]

I haven't seen Amour, I ended up getting sick the day it screened at the fest here and had to give away my tickets.

[ITALIANO]

Probably won't happen but one can dream.

True.

It's not my favorite Haneke movie, but it's still an extremely interesting movie of course. If you turn out to be right, I will look at the Academy with different eyes, I promise.

[Precious Doll]

Probably won't happen but one can dream.

[ITALIANO]

Plus - and I am probably the only one here who HAS seen Amour, so you can trust me - this not only isnt a sentimental portrayal of old age - it's an extremely tough, psychologically and visually tough I mean, portrayal of old age, illness and death, one that the Academy will really have serious problems dealing with (and would have serious problems with even if it were an American movie - but then Amour could never be an American movie. Argo it isn't). The Foreign Film branch will, of course, feel compelled to nominate it, if only because of its reputation, and maybe the Writers will appreciate it - but for the much less daring Actors it will be more difficult. Trintignant has ZERO chances of being nominated; Riva would have zero chances too except that this seems to be a weak year for her category. If she wins some critics prizes she might get in, but even if this happens, forget about an Oscar for her.

You're not the only one to have seen Amour I'm afraid. I was lucky enough to see Amour a few weeks after it was shown at Cannes. Okri and I think Bizzare have also seen Amour. I can see where you are coming from re: Amour's chances, and have to admit that my admiration for the film is probably clouding my views on it's Oscar potential. But I still think it will be up for Picture, Foreign Language Film, Actor, Actress, Director & Screenplay.

Six nominations then. Not bad...

[Precious Doll]

Helen Hunt ISN'T being pushed for lead. I don't know where that talk is coming from, but I have the screener for The Sessions. Fox Searchlight has her listed FYC in Supporting Actress. So, put any talk of a lead nomination out of your minds.

I don't think anyone is saying Helen Hunt is being pushed for lead, only that she could be considered lead. Kate Winslet was pushed for supporting in The Reader and we all know how that ended up.

I think it's quite possible that Helen Hunt will make the lead actress line-up despite the Fox FYC listing.