November 2009 Predictions

[Okri]

Why don't you agree? They seem quite reasonable. Maybe not Renner, but the rest? I can see that line-up.

[Sabin]

Moviecitynews.com's Gurus of Gold have weighed in. This is where they rank the contenders.

BEST PICTURE
1. Up in the Air (122)
2. Precious (119)
3. The Hurt Locker (92)
4. Invictus (89)
5. An Education (64)
6. Up (59)
7. Nine (54)
8. The Lovely Bones (38)
9. Inglourious Basterds (31)
10. A Serious Man (30)
* Avatar (30

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, Up in the Air (59)
2. Colin Firth, A Single Man (43)
3. Morgan Freeman, Invictus (31)
4. Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (20)
5. Viggo Mortensen, The Road (15)
* Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (15)
--don't agree with these at all.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia (60)
2. Carey Mulligan, An Education (59)
3. Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (42)
4. Helen Mirren, The Last Station (17)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones (10)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
1. Up (42)
2. Coraline (25)
3. Fantastic Mr. Fox (7)

[OscarGuy]

I'm not saying Damon isn't in the running. I also believe he's going to get a Globe nod, though a win isn't certain and an Oscar nomination is a possibility, but not a lock. However, let's not overstate the popularity of The Informant!

Metacritic has the film at an average rating of 66. on RT, it is at 77% fresh with a 6.9/10 rating. Not bad at all, but not exactly a great set of reviews. It may have a few, but the average does not support that assertion.

The film only made $32 M at the box office, barely $10 M more than its budget. That's not very big success.

[Sabin]

I'm especially pleased they have Matt Damon in their second group. Too many bloggers seem ready to dismiss him in favor of assorted unproven names . I can't believe a performance so widely praised, in a film that's matched Milk's gross (and outearned The Wrestler) would be tossed aside so easily.

Yeah, I don't get it either. I don't like using the word "lock" but I'll be astonished if he isn't at least nominated for Best Comedic/Musical Actor for The Informant! which is very well-liked movie that earned him great reviews. The man is a franchise-launching money machine who has bold artistic choices along the way (The Good Sheperd, The Talented Mr. Ripley, The Departed). He's in damn near every frame of The Informant! and I could see him coming from behind for a nomination. The guy deserves it.

[Big Magilla]

Here's what EW (Dave Karger) had to say about Tucci:

"After years of impressive work, he's said to deliver the most indelible performance of his career as Bones' child killer."

Biggest surprise to me was An Education relegated to long shot territory and Lone Sherfig not even considered for Best Director.

No mentions of Hal Holbrook, Jeff Bridges or Brenda Blethyn make me wonder if the article went to print before their films were given release dates or if Karger doesn't think they have much of a chance. Maybe he'll provide an update in next week's issue.

[Mister Tee]

I wonder if EW has had a look at Lovely Bones, or if it's just guessing it's going to be the big one out of the unopened Christmas packages. Last year they correctly pinpointed Benjamin Button as the one to watch from the as yet unseen. As someone at Sasha's site wrote the other day, Bones, Invictus and Nine are basically the equivalent of Button, The Reader and Revolutionary Road last year...except, with ten nominees this year, all will probably make it into the best picture category. Director/acting is another matter.

I'd also note they're the first to cite Stanley Tucci as a done deal -- plenty have considered him a hot prospect, but their singling him out this way (all the other acting sure things save Morgan Freeman are from projects already seen) bumps things up a level.

I'm especially pleased they have Matt Damon in their second group. Too many bloggers seem ready to dismiss him in favor of assorted unproven names . I can't believe a performance so widely praised, in a film that's matched Milk's gross (and outearned The Wrestler) would be tossed aside so easily.

[Big Magilla]

EW's take:

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air

Possibilities:
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Nien
A Serious Man
Up

Long Shots:
An Education
It's Complicated
A Single Man
Star Trek
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Actor
George Clooney, Up int eh Air
Colin Firth, A SIngle Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictius

Possibilities:
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Robert De Niro, Everybody's Fine
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Michael Stuhlburg, A Serious Man

Long Shots:
Paul Bettany, Creation
Ben Foster, The Messenger
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Clive Owen, The Boys Are Back
Michael Sheen, The Damned United

Best Actress
Cary Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Possibilities:
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Marion Cottilard, Nine
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones

Long Shots:
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Michelel Monaghan, Trucker
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Robin Wright, Pippa Lee

Best Supporting Actor
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Possibilities:
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Long Shots:
George Clooney, The Men Who Stare at Goats
Zach Galifiankis, The Hangover
Brian Geraghy, The Hut Locker
Peter Saarsgard, An Education
Paul Schneider, Bright Star

Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A SIngle Man

Possibilities:
Mariah Carey, Precious
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

Long Shots:
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Malanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Paula Patton, Precious
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Peter Jackson, The LOvely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Possibiities:
James Cameron, Avatar
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Lee Daniels, Precious
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Rob Marshall, Nine

Long Shots:
J.J. Abrams, Star Trek
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Tom Ford, A Simple Man
Spike Jonze, Where the WIld Things Are
Quentin Taranbtino, Inglourius Basterds

[flipp525]

I think that saying the Best Actor race is "locked up" on the 5th of November is bordering on ridiculous. There are maybe three or four true locks in this race and I don't think any of them are in the Best Actor category (yes, even, Morgan Freeman is not a lock, especially after I saw that trailer).

By what rationale is Jeff Bridges (a four-time nominee with a huge resume) locked out of the leading race, while Brenda Blethyn (two-time nominee) is somehow going to slip into the line-up with three pretty solid placeholders already in play, in a film that lacks distribution and, let's face it, appeal?

It's this kind of ossified thinking (I'm stealing Mister Tee's perfectly apt term here) that seems to suck all the life out of this entire process year after year.



Edited By flipp525 on 1257520399

[Big Magilla]

I don't know. I like Jeff Bridges as much as anyone, but this push by Fox seems like desperation to me. They banked all year long on Amelia, but now that that film has sunk like the Titanic they have to find something else to push so they rush release this little film they bought last summer. Maybe it will work, but I'm awfully skeptical about it.

The Blethyn idea I like because the work from actresses has been really disappointing this year. She could potentially add some life to the race.

[OscarGuy]

Nothing locks up this early, I don't care what race you're talking about.

As for not having a distributor, I want to cite an example. A little film called Local Color. Last year, I received a request from the producers of the film wanting to know if I wanted to view a screener of their film as they were hoping Armin Mueller Stahl would earn a Supporting Actor nomination for the film. They didn't have a distributor, they were self-financing almost everything. I reviewed it and while the film wasn't good, Mueller-Stahl was pretty strong and could have easily contended. However, without a distributor, you have no one to push your film. You have to finance everything and, unfortunately, strong word of mouth isn't always enough.

It may be difficult for many of us who hear about contenders so early in the year to not think we recognized them earlier than they were actually picked up as potentials. Frank Langella didn't really arrive on the scene two years ago until November. Starting Out in the Evening just kinda crept up on us all. While someone out there probably considered him a possibility, most of us didn't.

People weren't talking about Tilda Swinton as a winner until BAFTA, while she was on a few lists, I'm sure, she wasn't considered a potential winner until that point and still, not even after that.

Robert Downey Jr getting a nomination wasn't necessarily on anyone's radar until late in the year. His movie was the stuff of pure box office and then he started getting talked about and was a nominee before we all knew it.

Some arrive so late in the game (Eddie Marsan) that getting a nomination ends up failing because he did arrive too late, but this is not too late by any stretch of the imagination. Because the critics awards in December are game changers. They can push forward previously-unsuspected people. Can you imagine what would happen if Abbie Cornish just suddenly emerged with critics awards? We'd be scrambling to include her if she picked up the right ones. We never get a clear picture until mid-December because critics awards are where we firm up our notions whereas previously they are merely suppositions, which can turn out wrong and can turn out right in equal measure.

[Big Magilla]

She died of a heart attack at 62, not of old age.

You'd have to go back to the 1930s and 40s, maybe the mid-50s to find middle aged women looking, acting and dressing prematurely old.

I guess women today are looking, acting, and dressing young for their ages. Because take a picture of Geraldine Page on Oscar Night 1986, and put it alongside Meryl Streep this past year, or Helen Mirren a few years back, and I would bet my bank account that almost anyone you asked would guess that Page was a lot older. I know she didn't die of old age, but when she won her Oscar she looked a lot older than most sixty-one year-old ladies do today.

True, but styles change. People in their 80s and 90s today dress the same as people in their 40s and 50s. As for looks, people have always aged at different rates.

Page looked and acted older than some of her contemporaries including Lauren Bacall who was the same age and Maureen O'Hara who was four years older.

Gwen Verdon and Maureen Stapleton, who were a year younger than Page, also looked old for their age. That same year they were playing contemporaries of Jessica Tandy, then 76, in Cocoon. Verdon was playing opposite 77 year old Don Ameche who was remarkably well preserved for his age.

Page, Verdon and Stapleton were stage actresses, given to wearing heavy makeup a lot more than actresses who were/are primarily film actresses whose skin is better preserved.

Streep looks great, but her contemporary Goldie Hawn looks like a wax figure. Barbra Streisand, who is five years older than Liza Minnelli, looks five years younger.

[Big Magilla]

I don't know if Bridges has a shot at Best Actor this late in the game

What the hell? It's the first week of November. Since when is that "late in the game"?

Poor choice of words, but November became the new December when everything moved up a month earlier. SAG ballots are mailed out November 25th, due back December 14th. National Board of Review announces December 3rd, New York Film Critics on the 14th. Golden Globe nominations are announced on the 15th.

What I meant was that the best actor race is already pretty solid. For a performance to come out of nowhere now would be tough though certainly not unheard of as opposed to the best actress race where there are only a few viable candidates.

[Sabin]

What the hell? It's the first week of November. Since when is that "late in the game"?

Dude, it's already done. Everything's locked up. Gangs of New York is gonna win everything.

[dws1982]

She died of a heart attack at 62, not of old age.

You'd have to go back to the 1930s and 40s, maybe the mid-50s to find middle aged women looking, acting and dressing prematurely old.

I guess women today are looking, acting, and dressing young for their ages. Because take a picture of Geraldine Page on Oscar Night 1986, and put it alongside Meryl Streep this past year, or Helen Mirren a few years back, and I would bet my bank account that almost anyone you asked would guess that Page was a lot older. I know she didn't die of old age, but when she won her Oscar she looked a lot older than most sixty-one year-old ladies do today.

I don't know if Bridges has a shot at Best Actor this late in the game

What the hell? It's the first week of November. Since when is that "late in the game"?

I don't get what Blehtyn's film's lack of a distributor has to do with anything. The fact that the film is being given an Oscar qualifying run is all that really matters.

Lack of distributor means a lot. Lack of distributor means that the producers are financing the qualifying run themselves, and, unless it gets picked up they are financing the Oscar campaign themselves. (And how often do one-week qualifying runs work? Not very. And I'm not talking about the ones that run for a week in mid-December and then reopen in early January, because that's not what's being planned here.) Maybe they have the deep pockets to pull this off. But a nomination for a performer in an undistributed film would be one of the most unlikely nominations ever.



Edited By dws1982 on 1257486674

[Big Magilla]

Yikes! Page wore old lady makeup in The Trip to Bountiful as she frequently did - TV's The Christmas Visitor, The Thanksgiving Visitor, in the 60s and The Pope of Greenwich Village just two years before Bountiful, but catch her in 1985's White Nights in a still glamorous role.

The year she won for Bountiful her competition included Anne Bancroft in the role Page created on stage just a year earlier in Agnes of God, that of a worldy wise middle-aged nun, not an old lady.

She died of a heart attack at 62, not of old age.

You'd have to go back to the 1930s and 40s, maybe the mid-50s to find middle aged women looking, acting and dressing prematurely old.

I don't know if Bridges has a shot at Best Actor this late in the game - is his performance really strong enough to supplant one of the current front-runners especially when he already has a good shot at supporting actor for Men Who Stare at Goats? It's possible but I'm not ready to jump on his bandwagon just yet.

I don't get what Blehtyn's film's lack of a distributor has to do with anything. The fact that the film is being given an Oscar qualifying run is all that really matters. If she's liked by the brave souls who venture forth to see her in theatres or those who put their screener DVDs in their machines, she can be nominated. I think the key is the still unseen performance of Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones. If she's as good as the anticipation, she'll grab the fifth slot after Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep and Mirren. If not, Blethyn has as good a shot as anyone.