Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[rolotomasi99]

I don't know if audiences really hate art-house films or dark, unrelenting films that play with their emotions that much.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, THE BLAIR WITCH PROJECT, and FAHRENHEIT 9/11 are all unique indie films. however, i think there is a big difference between an indie film and an art house film. technically, SAW is an indie film (small budget, independently produced, released by a small studio), but i would never call it an art house film.
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is not an indie film (big budget, backed and distributed by a major studio), but from the trailer it definitely looks like an art house film.
as for the more art house-esque films you mentioned, they all benefited from either a best picture win or a best picture nomination plus wins in other categories.
if REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is nominated for best picture (which i am currently predicting) then it could probably get close to $75 million, but it will need a best picture win to push it past the century mark.
especially since it seems like a dark, unrelenting film that plays with the audience's emotions. $15 million opening to see kate and leo, but nothing beyond $50 million without a best picture nomination and nothing past $100 million without a best picture win.

TRAFFIC
$124 million total
$71 million before noms
$36 million after noms
$16 million after wins

PULP FICTION
$107 million total
$76 million before noms
$19 million after noms
$12 million after wins

SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
$100 million total
$36 million before noms
$36 million after noms
$27 million after wins

AMERICAN BEAUTY
$130 million total
$74 million before noms
$33 million after noms
$21 million after wins

MILLION DOLLAR BABY
$100 million total
$8 million before noms
$56 million after noms
$35 million after wins

[MovieWes]

i just think the country is not able to handle art house films. when i worked at a video store, people would always ask for recommendations. i would warn them the only movies i liked were ones that were praised by critics and were really well made. they would flat out say they did not like movies that made them think. from everything i have read and seen from the trailer, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD makes you think and it makes you feel emotionally exposed.

i am surprised penelope you give american audiences that much credit. i sure do not. if leonardo dicaprio could not make people see thinking action films like BLOOD DIAMOND and BODY OF LIES, and kate winslet could not make people see thinking sexy movies like QUILLS and LITTLE CHILDREN or a thinking comedy like ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (combined with the power of jim carrey)...i just am at a loss as to how they can make people propel a thinking talky movie like REVOLUTIONARY ROAD past $100 million (or even $50 million).

either i am underestimating what the combined power of kate and leo can make people go see, or i am seriously overestimating how intelligent and emotionally raw REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is.

I don't know if audiences really hate art-house films or dark, unrelenting films that play with their emotions that much.

Some examples...

My Big Fat Greek Wedding, an indie comedy with no stars and no major studio, grossed $241 million.

A cheap indie horror movie, The Blair Witch Project, which had a budget of a couple thousand dollars and was filmed on a VHS camcorder, grossed $140 million.

American Beauty, a very black comedy/drama that dealt with some of the same issues that are dealt with in Revolutionary Road (from the same director, but with no A-list actors), grossed $130 million.

A very dark, unrelenting, and realistic ensemble drama about the impacts that drugs have on society, the government, law enforcement, and families, Traffic, grossed $124 million, despite not even being released by a major studio.

Fahrenheit 9/11, a political documentary, grossed $119 million.

A violent, non-linear indie crime thriller, Pulp Fiction, grossed $107 million, even though it wasn't released through a major studio, John Travolta was a washed-up former star, Samuel L. Jackson was a nobody, the biggest star was Bruce Willis, and Quentin Tarantino was a largely unknown director.

Million Dollar Baby, a dark, emotional, and poetic boxing drama which dealt with the issue of the right to die, grossed $100 million (and it was definitely a film which left the audience emotionally wiped out).

Shakespeare in Love, a period film with lots of costumes, surprisingly grossed $100 million.

So, it could happen if the circumstances are right.



Edited By MovieWes on 1224720538

[rolotomasi99]

there are also valid reasons why REVOLUTIONARY ROAD will start strong but then flop: lack of interest in the topic (1950's suburban malaise), extremely poor marketing (the very arty and unsexy trailer), poor word of mouth ("did you see that awful REVOLUTIONARY ROAD? i thought it was going to be romantic. it was two hours of kate and leo being mean to each other and depressed. not what i was expecting. but did you see MARLEY AND ME? now that was a good movie!").

on my computer your avatar is so small i thought maybe it was dominic cooper from THE DUCHESS. it was a hottie from the u.k. in a costume drama about a famous queen, but just not the right hottie or queen.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224706892

[Penelope]

oh, is that why THE INSIDER, LITTLE CHILDREN, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA, EASTERN PROMISES, INTO THE WILD, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES, I'M NOT THERE, TRANSAMERICA, etc. failed? bad word of mouth. i always wondered.

I don't believe there's a guarantee that Revolutionary Road will be the big hit that these others weren't, but there are also valid reasons why those other films flopped: lack of interest in the topic (The Insider, Into the Wild), tired of the topic (Letters From Iwo Jima), extremely poor marketing and distribution (Little Children, Assassination of Jesse James), lack of A list or even B list stars (TransAmerica), poor word of mouth (Eastern Promises, I'm Not There).

Obviously, any of these (save lack of A list stars) could come into play here, and while I'm constantly appalled at the American public for embracing Beverly Hills Chahuahua over the likes of Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist, I also remain hopeful that an intelligent, adult film featuring major stars can still connect with audiences.

As for my avatar: I like to swap it out every once in a while, and I was tired of the two guys from Forbidden Love kissing, so I switched it to mouth-watering hottie Jamie Dornan as Axel von Fersen in Marie Antoinette.



Edited By Penelope on 1224703642

[rolotomasi99]

p.s. penelope, what happened to the kissing boys? i miss the kissing boys. who is this new guy with the silly hat?

[rolotomasi99]

it is much like what happened with THE GOLDEN AGE. the studios sold it to people as some sort of bodice ripper/action film spectacle. they release it in more than 2,000 theatres. however, when people realized it was more of a costume drama, people stopped coming.

No, they realized it was a truly dreadful film.

Which is why the argument may not work. If Revolutionary Road is a great film, the word of mouth will be terrific and so, yes, the film very well could soar over $100 million.

oh, is that why THE INSIDER, LITTLE CHILDREN, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA, EASTERN PROMISES, INTO THE WILD, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES, I'M NOT THERE, TRANSAMERICA, etc. failed? bad word of mouth. i always wondered.

i remember a couple years ago someone on this board suggested BABEL was going to make more than $100 million in the u.s. i though that was ridiculous because it just seemed too art house to do that well. BABEL did make more than $100 million in the overseas markets. in the u.s. the film only made $34 million.
i just think the country is not able to handle art house films. when i worked at a video store, people would always ask for recommendations. i would warn them the only movies i liked were ones that were praised by critics and were really well made. they would flat out say they did not like movies that made them think. from everything i have read and seen from the trailer, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD makes you think and it makes you feel emotionally exposed.

i am surprised penelope you give american audiences that much credit. i sure do not. if leonardo dicaprio could not make people see thinking action films like BLOOD DIAMOND and BODY OF LIES, and kate winslet could not make people see thinking sexy movies like QUILLS and LITTLE CHILDREN or a thinking comedy like ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (combined with the power of jim carrey)...i just am at a loss as to how they can make people propel a thinking talky movie like REVOLUTIONARY ROAD past $100 million (or even $50 million).

either i am underestimating what the combined power of kate and leo can make people go see, or i am seriously overestimating how intelligent and emotionally raw REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is.

[Penelope]

it is much like what happened with THE GOLDEN AGE. the studios sold it to people as some sort of bodice ripper/action film spectacle. they release it in more than 2,000 theatres. however, when people realized it was more of a costume drama, people stopped coming.

No, they realized it was a truly dreadful film.

Which is why the argument may not work. If Revolutionary Road is a great film, the word of mouth will be terrific and so, yes, the film very well could soar over $100 million.

[rolotomasi99]

have made $100 million rather than $5 million. LITTLE CHILDREN was funny, sexy, smart, and brutal. it deserved a bigger audience.

You should read the book. It's fabulous.

i have it sitting on my bookshelf. i want to read it, i just have to read some other books first. i am reading "middlesex" right now. it would be a tricky adaptation, but i would love to see a movie. i think sofia coppola did such a wonderful job with VIRGIN SUICIDES (by the same author), she should direct MIDDLESEX.

movieswes, i think your point about kate/leo fans is correct, just not to the extent you seem to think. i think REVOLUTIONARY ROAD could have a relatively big opening weekend -- somewhere around $15 million. however, after people realize it is a good film rather than some cheesy romance like NIGHTS AT RODANTHE, only those who like quality filmmaking will go see it.

it is much like what happened with THE GOLDEN AGE. the studios sold it to people as some sort of bodice ripper/action film spectacle. they release it in more than 2,000 theatres. however, when people realized it was more of a costume drama, people stopped coming. it dropped more than 400 theatres after its second weekend, and then more than 1,000 theatres after its third weekend. i suspect much the same will happen to REVOLUTIONARY ROAD.

[barrybrooks8]

Little Children, along with The Hours, The Assassination of Jesse James, Appaloosa, Solaris, and Mrs. Henderson Presents were all movies that only played in one theatre (a multiplex with 14 screens, I think, and the only theatre I know where you get the soda yourself) around where I live in Milwaukee (in a rich suburb called Mequon). Now, I live within walking distance of two indie theatres, one with two screens and one with three that are pretty good about getting the indies quickly and holding them for the right amount of time, even having some odd ones (like recently The Last Mistress). I never understood why those particular movies only played in Mequon, rather than at least going wider after nominations came through. It didn't stop me from seeing them, I just didn't get it.

[flipp525]

have made $100 million rather than $5 million. LITTLE CHILDREN was funny, sexy, smart, and brutal. it deserved a bigger audience.

You should read the book. It's fabulous.

[rolotomasi99]

I don't think they care. All they care about is the Kate/Leo reunion. Maybe they're going to be disappointed when they discover that it's nothing like Titanic (maybe not), but the point that I'm trying to make is that there is a definite interest in the movie solely because of the whole Titanic reunion, and it's no coincidence that the entertainment media is milking this for all it's worth. There are a lot of people out there who frankly don't give a damn about its subject matter. It's not going to gross $600 million (or even $200 million) for sure, but $100-150 million seems like a realistic expectation for this film.

And in a culture where TV shows like CSI and American Idol are on top, is it such a stretch to think that audiences would go see a movie like this not because of its quality, but because of something as simple as a Kate/Leo reunion?

i guess i really am underestimating the draw of seeing kate and leo together. i loved TITANIC as much as any teen gay boy (i was in the 8th grade when it was released). i must have seen it 4 or 5 times in the theatre with my friends (all of whom where tween girls).

however, i am excited about seeing kate and leo together because they are great actors, not because of some romantic fascination with them. if the power of kate and leo can bring $100-150 million to a film which would probably make $20 million with any other stars, then we should pair those two up more often. i mean, if it had been leo fucking kate in LITTLE CHILDREN rather than patrick wilson maybe the movie could have made $100 million rather than $5 million. LITTLE CHILDREN was funny, sexy, smart, and brutal. it deserved a bigger audience. at least REVOLUTIONARY ROAD will not suffer the same fate.

[MovieWes]

You make an interesting argument in regards to Frost/Nixon, though. I guess that it would take a Best Picture nomination for it to gross $60 million+, and even Good Night, and Good Luck. was nominated for Best Picture. I guess that one should also consider another similar film, The Insider, which made under $30 million despite the presence of big stars (Al Pacino and Russell Crowe), a big-name director (Michael Mann), and a Best Picture nomination. However, this was back in 1999, so with inflation counted in, it would've made $40.7 million.

So I will change my prediction to $30 million.

[flipp525]

All they care about is the Kate/Leo reunion.

You'd think they would've also shown a snippet of Kathy Bates in the trailer for the "Look, there's the Unsinkable Molly Brown, too!" factor.

[MovieWes]

I don't think they care. All they care about is the Kate/Leo reunion. Maybe they're going to be disappointed when they discover that it's nothing like Titanic (maybe not), but the point that I'm trying to make is that there is a definite interest in the movie solely because of the whole Titanic reunion, and it's no coincidence that the entertainment media is milking this for all it's worth. There are a lot of people out there who frankly don't give a damn about its subject matter. It's not going to gross $600 million (or even $200 million) for sure, but $100-150 million seems like a realistic expectation for this film.

And in a culture where TV shows like CSI and American Idol are on top, is it such a stretch to think that audiences would go see a movie like this not because of its quality, but because of something as simple as a Kate/Leo reunion?

[rolotomasi99]

I don't know. I know several women who LOVED Titanic and can hardly wait to see this movie. I'm sure that they are not alone.

have they seen the trailer? do they know what the movie is about? are they the type of people who would see an art house movie? i mean, we live in a culture where tv shows like "csi" and "two and a half men" and "american idol" are the top shows, while quality programs like "mad men" and "friday night lights" struggle to find an audience big enough to guarantee renenwal every season.

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, despite its budget and pedigree, reminds me of a two hour episode of "mad men." brilliantly made and brutally honest, intellectually stimulating and emotionally devastating. is that the kind of movie these women are ready to see, or do they think it is some sort of romantic drama like THE NOTEBOOK?

i sure wish you were right, moviewes. i wish a movie as smart and interesting as REVOLUTIONARY ROAD could make more than $100 million, but i see few if any examples of a film this brainy and honest becoming a multiplex hit.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224620828