My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Mister Tee
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Sabin wrote: But why wouldn't we expected this film to get in an expanded Best Picture race in what's turning out to be a somewhat weak year? I just looked down Spielberg's filmography. Especially considering that the 2010s surprisingly saw more Best Picture nominations for Spielberg than any other decade (four).
Totally a by-product of the expanded slate; Lincoln, by virtue of its directing nomination, is the only one I think would have made the best picture list under the old regime. A lot of Oscar bloggers like to pat themselves on the back when films they predicted for best picture nominations at the year's start end up on the list. But I'd say a majority of them are filling the 6-through-10 slots, as it's generally hard for voters to come up with that many truly deserving candidates, so they fall back on the names they've been hearing all year. I mean War Horse was a best picture nominee; why?

As for this trailer...it does nothing to offset my "why do we need this film?" anxiety; any differences from the '61 version are exceedingly minor (perhaps the most significant: Bernardo reads more like a young Puerto Rican than whatever George Chakiris was). I actually agree that a musical would seem to be well within Spielberg's range -- the early 1941 scene set to In the Mood had more life than the entire rest of the movie -- but why in the world not find one that hasn't already been done fairly well?
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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The new West Side Story trailer dropped and I don't know what to make of this thing. I've been waiting to see a Steven Spielberg musical for ages now. The way he captures faces at just the right moment would make him seem like an unlikely match made in heaven for the form. And yet, there's a weird uncanny valley quality to the images. It feels new and embalmed at the same time.

I'm inclined to say it'll play better once we get to see some scenes breathe and play out.

But why wouldn't we expected this film to get in an expanded Best Picture race in what's turning out to be a somewhat weak year? I just looked down Spielberg's filmography. Especially considering that the 2010s surprisingly saw more Best Picture nominations for Spielberg than any other decade (four).

At the very least, West Side Story should probably be some kind of contender across the board for tech categories.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Andrew Garfield - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
Nope. I can only see this happening if it’s a super weak year for support.
Last edited by flipp525 on Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Big Magilla wrote:
anonymous1980 wrote:One word on Frances McDormand: I'm hearing reports that she might go Supporting for Tragedy of Macbeth so just take note of that.
How about she just goes home and lets someone else have a chance?
The Macbeth jinx might just cancel out both Washington and McDormand.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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anonymous1980 wrote:One word on Frances McDormand: I'm hearing reports that she might go Supporting for Tragedy of Macbeth so just take note of that.
How about she just goes home and lets someone else have a chance?
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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mlrg wrote:Soggy Bottom is now called Licorice Pizza
For now. It might be called something else by the time it actually opens.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Soggy Bottom is now called Licorice Pizza
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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One word on Frances McDormand: I'm hearing reports that she might go Supporting for Tragedy of Macbeth so just take note of that.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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rolotomasi99 wrote
LEAD ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

Frances McDormand - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Great choices! Already love reading your selections.

My gut tells me:
- Olivia Colman will be nominated for The Lost Daughter. Olivia Colman will also basically be nominated for everything she does from here on out.

- Cruz and Stewart are probably in.

- No way of knowing about McDormand but this would be her seventh acting nomination, moving her into a rung with Ingrid Bergman, Cate Blanchett, Jane Fonda, Judi Dench, Greer Garson, and Kate Winslet. Only Meryl Streep (14), Katherine Hepburn (12), Bette Davis (10), Geraldine Page (8), and Glenn Close (8) will have more nominations at that point.

- I'm skeptical about Jennifer Hudson for Respect. I have a feeling the film will be forgotten.

- Jessica Chastain definitely has a shot at a nomination. Reviews for the film overall seem a bit mixed but it looks like a big, actory performance. Interesting but I tend to think of Jessica Chastain as someone gets nominated all the time. She hasn't been nominated in nine years. She's probably been sixth or seventh rung a few times but barely missed (A Most Violent Year, Miss Sloane, Molly's Game). Depending on the competition, I think it could happen again.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Dunst will not be nominated for The Power of the Dog. The screenplay revolves mainly around the three men. Despite attempts at histrionics she is upstaged each time by one of the men.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by rolotomasi99 »

I imagine only half of these will prove to be correct, but here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Dune

The Power Of The Dog

Nightmare Alley

Soggy Bottom

The French Dispatch

The Tragedy of Macbeth

The Last Duel

Don’t Look Up

Belfast

King Richard

DIRECTING

The Power Of The Dog

Soggy Bottom

Nightmare Alley

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Soggy Bottom

The French Dispatch

Don’t Look Up

Mass

C'mon C'mon

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power Of The Dog

Nightmare Alley

The Humans

The Last Duel

The Lost Daughter

LEAD ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

Frances McDormand - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

Jennifer Hudson - Respect

LEAD ACTOR

Will Smith - King Richard

Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power Of The Dog

Joaquin Phoenix - C'mon C'mon

Peter Dinklage - Cyrano

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ann Dowd - Mass

Martha Plimpton - Mass

Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard

Kirsten Dunst - The Power Of The Dog

Judi Dench - Belfast

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jason Isaacs - Mass

Richard Jenkins - The Humans

Andrew Garfield - The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

Cirian Hinds - Belfast

FILM EDITING

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power Of The Dog

The Last Duel

Don’t Look Up

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power Of The Dog

Belfast

The Tragedy Of McBeth

ART DIRECTION

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Last Duel

The Tragedy Of McBeth

COSTUME DESIGN

Dune

Cruella

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Last Duel

ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power Of The Dog

The French Dispatch

Spencer

SOUND

Dune

The Last Duel

Nightmare Alley

No Time To Die

Don’t Look Up

VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

Black Widow

The Suicide Squad

Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings

MAKEUP

The Eyes Of Tammy Faye

House Of Gucci

Cruella

Dune

The French Dispatch
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Sabin wrote
Having seen Pig, I can safely say: 1) Nicolas Cage won't be nominated, 2) Nicolas Cage was robbed, and 3) Nicolas Cage wasn't robbed but it will be something that people will be saying.
Can you say a little bit more about this? I’m curious. I haven’t seen Pig yet.
Sure!

1) Nicolas Cage won't be nominated.
Cage is terrific in the role but it's really more of a triumph of casing. It's the first movie in a long time that both knows what Cage excels at but also it taps into a weirdo mystique that's been following his celebrity around for the last ten years or so. But he spends most of the movie buried underneath a massive wig, covered in bruise makeup, and quietly ruminating on the nature of existence. His voice is never much above a shamanic murmur. I don't see Pig getting nominations because it's just a little too weird and low-key in general. Also, this is very much a director's film. His is the film's dominant voice. This isn't a lot of gracious room for an old star to flex his/her muscles and show us their vulnerability like when Darren Aronofsky brought Mickey Rourke back in The Wrestler. Cage is still probably the film's best shot. I think an Indie Spirit nomination is likely -- maybe even a win. Perhaps a critic's award as well.

2) Nicolas Cage was robbed
Fanboys online are going to scream that Nicolas Cage was robbed when he won't be nominated for a host a reason. Because Pig is up their alley. That's also largely because Pig has a genre-movie vibe to it but twists our expectations a bit, and these loud voices tend to be very passionate about genre exercises. They also really like it when movies come along that validate their childhood faves and/or revitalize them. For example, last year when Adam Sandler was robbed for Uncut Gems (that said: he was). So, for all these reasons, I suspect there's going to be a lot of somewhat meaningless sentiment online that Nicolas Cage was robbed.

3) Nicolas Cage wasn't robbed but it will be something that people will be saying
Anyway, so Nicolas Cage won't really be robbed for an acting nomination. I have no doubt that he'll be better than a few people nominated but that's true of countless performers every year.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Having seen Pig, I can safely say: 1) Nicolas Cage won't be nominated, 2) Nicolas Cage was robbed, and 3) Nicolas Cage wasn't robbed but it will be something that people will be saying.
Can you say a little bit more about this? I’m curious. I haven’t seen Pig yet.

Having just finished reading Nightmare Alley, Toni Collette has the most Oscar-baity role. Cate Blanchett’s character comes in really late and she’s barely in the novel. I’m confused as to why she’s being promoted as a lead actress contender. They must have really beefed up her role.

The book is fantastic and surprisingly modern in several ways. The ending is a complete gut-punch. I gasped. I highly recommend it.
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

Post by gunnar »

I haven't seen Pig yet, but maybe Nicolas Cage can get a nomination for Best Supporting Actor using the argument that the lead is the pig. ;)
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Re: My first predictions of the year (pre-fall festivals)

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Having seen Pig, I can safely say: 1) Nicolas Cage won't be nominated, 2) Nicolas Cage was robbed, and 3) Nicolas Cage wasn't robbed but it will be something that people will be saying.

Variety's Top Ten is currently
1. Don't Look Up
2. Dune
3. Parallel Mothers
4. tick, tick... Boom!
5. King Richard
6. Being the Ricardos
7. Belfast
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. Nightmare Alley
10. CODA

Best Actor
1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
5. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
3. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
4. Nicolas Kidman, Being the Ricardos
5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
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