First Post-SAG Predictions

[OscarGuy]

It was statutory rape, which does not necessarily guarantee rape. That terms is applied any time an adult has relations with a minor. Even if the minor was fully aware and culpable for her actions.

[rolotomasi99]

Had Ledger won for Brokeback Mountain as he should have, this would be a wide open race but as it stands no one else has a chance. The only question is how will they handle his win. Will Christopher Nolan or Michelle Williams be called upon to accept? That wouldn't dare have Tilda Swinton say "Heath can't be with us tonight so I accept it in his honor."

ugh. it reminds me of how they handled roman polanski finally winning best director.

i think the man should be punished for raping the poor girl, either by going to jail or having to remain a fugitive; however, the academy could have done a little more than just have harrison ford say thanks -- some sort of prepared statement for ford to read would have been nice.

personally, with all respect to michelle williams, nolan should be the one to accept the oscar since it will be the closest he gets to being acknowledged by the academy for his excellent work on THE DARK KNIGHT.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1230844075

[Eric]

I'm thinking that with no clear favorite Henson will be swept up in Button's total wins which could set a new record.

I can see Button squeaking by with a best picture win. I can even see nominations in the healthy double digits. But 12 wins?! You must be insane.

[Bog]

Something tells me Magilla wasn't considering eventual winners when stating that it would be Ritter and Kerr...which we only all hope that Winslet turns out to be an eventual winner someday

[flipp525]

The big question is will Winslet be nominated for this or Revolutionary Road, and if the latter, will she be nominated in support for the former and will she win for either or join Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter as the most nominated female acting loser at six or overtake them and have the title completely to herself with seven.

Geraldine Page beats them all having lost seven times before she won Best Actress on her eighth and final nomination for The Trip to Bountiful.



Edited By flipp525 on 1230839617

[Big Magilla]

I changed the name of the topic from post-Guild to post-SAG as that is the only guild that has chimed in so far. DGA and PGA are next week, after which people may have revisions.

Here are my current thoughts:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Button will win.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

If either Langella, Penn or Rourke are left out of the nominations it will be a major shock. The other two slots are up for grabs but since AMPAS likes to trump SAG with at least one nod I think it will be DiCaprio over Richard Jenkins. There still seems to be some sort of groundswell for Clint Eastwood but I'm at a loss to understand why. Penn will win.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Blanchett is a long shot, but they seem to love her no matter what she does, and this is her best, least showy performance ever so I can't understand why it isn't getting more respect. She won't win, though. All the others have a shot. With no clear favorite this could be the year Streep gets her third.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Had Ledger won for Brokeback Mountain as he should have, this would be a wide open race but as it stands no one else has a chance. The only question is how will they handle his win. Will Christopher Nolan or Michelle Williams be called upon to accept? That wouldn't dare have Tilda Swinton say "Heath can't be with us tonight so I accept it in his honor."

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Winslet blows the competition out of the water. She'll win here.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frsot/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Fincher is the likely winner, with Boyle a possible upset. If Fincher wins, so does Button, but Boyle, who is more personally liked, could win and his film still lose though it would make the best picture race more a nail-biter if he does.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1231140087

[FilmFan720]

It is funny, but not great. Downey Jr. and Jay Baruchel are the best parts of the film. Tom Cruise is funny in his first little scene, but it quickly becomes one of the worst performances in years. He is over the top, his character doesn't make any sense and it is poor comedic acting all around. Probably the best work Matthew McConaughey has done ever, though.

[Hollywood Z]

Personally, I thought Tropic Thunder was a wonderful satire of the entertainment industry and all the eccentrecities that they have accepted as common place. Sure, I've never met a studio executive before, but after seeing Tom Cruise's character, it does make you wonder just where he found the inspiration for that character.

And Sabin, I didn't think the movie celebrated the high rollers in Hollywood as much as it did show how vaccuous and shallow their lives are in an entertaining manner that wouldn't ostracize him from his own crowd (just like Zoolander). No one in their right mind bites the hand that feeds them, but it did bring to light a lot of personality traits that have become walking jokes in and of themselves to the public and done in a manner that allows them to laugh at themselves. Seriously, would you like to have someone spew an angry tyraid at you for two hours with no caring manner behind it, even if they were right?

[Sabin]

It's not good. It celebrates these assholes and that is inappropriate. I think Tropic Thunder becomes it's own Tropic Thunder, but the movie is absolutely worth seeing for Robert Downey, Jr.. He is incredibly funny.

[ITALIANO]

Please, not even Tropic Thunder now...

[Penelope]

I wouldn't say Tropic Thunder is one of the funniest movies of the decade, it's only slightly above mediocre, but I do admit that RDJr gives one of the most inspired comic performances of the year.

[Hollywood Z]

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle; Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard; Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan; The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant; Milk

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood; Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins; The Visitor
Frank Langella; Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn; Milk
Mickey Rourke; The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Beckinsale; Nothing But the Truth
Anne Hathaway; Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie; Changeling
Meryl Streep; Doubt
Kate Winslet; Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin; Milk
Robert Downey Jr.; Tropic Thunder
James Franco; Milk
Heath Ledger; The Dark Knight
Dev Patel; Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams; Doubt
Penelope Cruz; Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis; Doubt
Marisa Tomei; The Wrestler
Kate Winslet; The Reader

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Gran Torino
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Wall-E
The Wrestler

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

BEST SONG
"Down to Earth"; Wall-E
"Gran Torino"; Gran Torino
"I Thought I Lost You"; Bolt
"Up to our Nex"; Rachel Getting Married
"The Wrestler"; The Wrestler

BEST SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road

BEST FILM EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boleyn Girl
The Reader

BEST ART DIRECTION
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Valkyrie

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Wall-E

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Wall-E
Wanted

BEST MAKE-UP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man



Edited By Hollywood Z on 1230753660

[Zahveed]

It's more accurate to say it's the best straight comedy of the year, and in my opinion, one of the funniest of the decade. I don't view it as a parody film though, but there are bits of satire.

[MovieWes]

Yes, there are quite a few problems with it, but for a parody film, it is stands high above many others, including the crashing "... Movie" pics.

I am one of the people who liked Tropic Thunder, but I have to admit that you're not going to win anyone over by saying it's better than crap like Epic Movie or Date Movie.

[OscarGuy]

I enjoyed Tropic Thunder, it has some very interesting concepts at work. I didn't like Jack Black, Ben Stiller or Matthew McConaughey in it, but Downey Jr., Cruise and Baruchel are all a blast. Yes, there are quite a few problems with it, but for a parody film, it is stands high above many others, including the crashing "... Movie" pics. No, it's not Airplane!, but it's not as bad as some of the other crap that's out there.



Edited By OscarGuy on 1230748544