National Society of Film Critics
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OscarGuy
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I swear people saw a different movie in There Will Be Blood than I did. It's got a sweeping style and great performances. Is it bias towards another critic's darling this year? I don't see anything in TWBB that would disallow a win? It's far less than half as violent as No Country for Old Men and about on par with Atonement in the violence department. The only thing that could work against it is it's anti-religion slant and I don't know that that would disqualify it. I still don't think the winner's going to be a critics darling, though...I'm expecting something far more mainstream.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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The Original BJ
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Cam, I hope you don't feel ganged-up on, but no number of amazing reviews will convince me that There Will Be Blood has a genuine shot at the trophy. It might not even be nominated. (I think it CAN be, but, as rain bard says, it's in no way assured.)
If There Will Be Blood wins the Globe, the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, the ASC, and the other Best Picture nominees are American Gangster, Atonement, Juno, and The Kite Runner, then maybe...MAYBE I would concede that the Anderson film has a shot. But I highly doubt that scenario will come to pass.
And I hesitate to read into the preferential voting system too much. True, There Will Be Blood SEEMS like the kind of movie that could get a lot of no. 1 votes. But so did Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Far From Heaven, Memento, and A History of Violence, and none of those films won Best Picture.
The critics have had their day with There Will Be Blood and thank god. But, I swear, once people start to see this thing, it might not be pretty.
If There Will Be Blood wins the Globe, the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, the ASC, and the other Best Picture nominees are American Gangster, Atonement, Juno, and The Kite Runner, then maybe...MAYBE I would concede that the Anderson film has a shot. But I highly doubt that scenario will come to pass.
And I hesitate to read into the preferential voting system too much. True, There Will Be Blood SEEMS like the kind of movie that could get a lot of no. 1 votes. But so did Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Far From Heaven, Memento, and A History of Violence, and none of those films won Best Picture.
The critics have had their day with There Will Be Blood and thank god. But, I swear, once people start to see this thing, it might not be pretty.
here is just one rave for TWBB:
http://www.efilmcritic.com/review.php?movie=16674&reviewer=389
http://www.efilmcritic.com/review.php?movie=16674&reviewer=389
Yeah, but remember there are a lot of highbrows in the NSFC. Proportionally many more than in the Academy. Once you see the film I'm sure you'll recognize why it's not Best Picture win material (I'm starting to think it actually has a chance for a BP nomination, but it's by no means assured.) The Academy does not often go where the critics do- Crash was middlingly-reviewed, after all.
Edited By rain Bard on 1199649960
Edited By rain Bard on 1199649960
No. I haven't seen it yet: it is on*my* short list, but I have read some astoundingly good reviews, particularly for Day-Lewis and Dano( who did not really impress me in LMS, but I noticed he did others here). The fact that it handily won NS of Film Critics, gives me the impression that it will triumph later as well. We all know that some films profit from being the No. 1 Flavour during the Oscar voting , and this seems to be the film that is going to profit : it is fresh in people's minds(see MDB), which prompts my decision for this film over No Country. Strictly a good-timing decision.
Edited By cam on 1199649740
Edited By cam on 1199649740
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The Original BJ
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Cam, have you seen There Will Be Blood? There is no way in hell that movie is winning a Best Picture Oscar.
I think if the NSFC had an agenda (aside from, you know, selecting a very fine film for its top prize), it was to choose a very fine film that could actually use this critical oomph to make the Oscar shortlist (as opposed to, say, I'm Not There, Zodiac, or 4 Months, none of which are getting anywhere near Best Picture).
Once the nominations are announced, though, (and IF TWBB manages to shortlist), its win chances will be D.O.A.
I think if the NSFC had an agenda (aside from, you know, selecting a very fine film for its top prize), it was to choose a very fine film that could actually use this critical oomph to make the Oscar shortlist (as opposed to, say, I'm Not There, Zodiac, or 4 Months, none of which are getting anywhere near Best Picture).
Once the nominations are announced, though, (and IF TWBB manages to shortlist), its win chances will be D.O.A.
To be truthful, Page isn't all that terrible in Juno; she's actually pretty good; it's just that in comparison to Christie, Keri Russell, Helena Bonham Carter (I know I'm alone on that one), La Jambon and Isabelle Huppert, she just pales. To think that should could conceivably win--when Russell and Huppert won't even be nominated, and Carter is iffy--is simply depressing.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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dylanfan23
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It's a very depressing year for best actress though.....i have ellen page in my top five still, along with jolie, christie and ashley judd from bug and none of those i would even consider making my top five a year ago...there isn't much to go on....marion cotillard was fine but i don't think she deserves even a nomination...4 months, 3weeks and 2 days was great and anamaria marinca was really great and i would not be upset if she got nominated either.....if i had to vote though and give it to one actress, i think i would give it to my other nominee laura linney for the savages...after seeing the savages i was very surprised she hasn't gotten more love....just the combination of her being very good in the film, the film being very good and very easily likable and her being consistantly good for some time now, i thought she might get a snow ball effect rolling to her eventually winning. Just surprising to me is all.
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Big Magilla
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Her persona is definite more Maggie than Audrey. There are no Audreys any more.ITALIANO wrote:Only the girl from Juno is a realistic alternative. And, I'd say, if the movie is nominated as Best Picture, a very solid, very possible alternative. I don't know anything about her, I don't know if she's pretty (that would help), but she's talented, and young - maybe even too young - which usually counts in this category. And the movie seems to be much liked (it certainly was at the Rome film festival) and probably a big box office hit. Oh, she could turn out to be a Maggie McNamara, true - but she could pull an Audrey Hepburn, too.
I think she's going to win. Julie Christie is a Hollywood outsider in a tiny film that peaked a long time ago. Marion Cotillard, even more so. Angelina Jolie's film got an incredibly muted reception and she's far too polarizing a figure for a second win. Ellen Page shames her ilk with smart career moves in a hot film that she steals, owns. She IS Juno. I think at this point, Ellen Page is the kind of upstart they love.
"How's the despair?"
What if all these factors propel a surprise nominee to a win such as Laura Linney for The Savages, Anamaria Marinca for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days or Amy Adams for Enchanted? I can't remember who said it below, but I think that on nomination morning, this category could offer up some surprise contenders who, in turn, could eventuially become threats for the actual award. This category has always seemed very amorphous.
I think Ellen Page will be nominated in support next year for An American Crime.
On the other hand, the supporting categories seem quite sewn up.
Edited By flipp525 on 1199641615
I think Ellen Page will be nominated in support next year for An American Crime.
On the other hand, the supporting categories seem quite sewn up.
Edited By flipp525 on 1199641615
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Sabin wrote:I don't think Best Actress is closed.
Because it's not. Or it wouldn't be, normally. Julie Christie is exactly the kind of actress they would NEVER give an Oscar to - not young, not American, not "popular" (or not anymore), not in a commercially successful movie and not in many movies anyway, has already won before - I mean, they will hate to give it to her, especially right after Helen Mirren. But which are the alternatives?
If Marion Cotillard were American, she'd be a very possible winner. The Actors Branch would be almost compact behind her - let's face it, we may not like her performance too much, but it's exactly the kind of role - and acting - that actors die for: showy, tragic, "big", in your face. But she happens to be French, and she's not even a very famous French - so a nomination will be enough.
Only the girl from Juno is a realistic alternative. And, I'd say, if the movie is nominated as Best Picture, a very solid, very possible alternative. I don't know anything about her, I don't know if she's pretty (that would help), but she's talented, and young - maybe even too young - which usually counts in this category. And the movie seems to be much liked (it certainly was at the Rome film festival) and probably a big box office hit. Oh, she could turn out to be a Maggie McNamara, true - but she could pull an Audrey Hepburn, too.
Edited By ITALIANO on 1199640049
I think our definition of trend is very similar. I meant they want to point out that there are other films out there worth remembering than those already receiving the lion's share. Whereas most critics were head over heels for 'Far From Heaven', they awarded 'The Pianist'.
They've also gone with the flow and endorsed previously established critic's darlings like 'Mulholland Drive' and 'American Splendor', and I think their lauding of 'There Will Be Blood' follows suit.
In but a few cases, I don't think these critic's awards matter much to the Academy anymore, nor should they. The Oscars haven't really been populist since 'The Lord of the Rings', with movies crossing the $100 million mark a rarity. 'The Departed' is the only film that made that of its own volition, whereas 'The Aviator', 'Million Dollar Baby', and 'Brokeback Mountain' barely slugged past the mark, the Academy practically begging the moviegoing public to actually watch the movies they like. The Oscars are neither populist nor elitist. They're inherently conservative-spined films posing as liberal-minded ones. 'Babel' thinks it's art, but it is not. 'Little Miss Sunshine' looks hip until you realize it's an in house production with an A-list cast, a trailer, a soundtrack, and a vibe more than a movie. 'The Departed' is a Martin Scorsese blockbuster that was shot and re-shot into excellence...excellence which was more incidental than pre-planned.
...that's why this year's horse race between 'No Country for Old Men' and 'There Will Be Blood' feels so atypical. I think the producers honestly knew what these maverick filmmakers wanted to do ahead of time and supported them in the hopes of brilliant filmmaking, which was achieved on both parts most would agree.
I don't think Best Actress is closed.
They've also gone with the flow and endorsed previously established critic's darlings like 'Mulholland Drive' and 'American Splendor', and I think their lauding of 'There Will Be Blood' follows suit.
In but a few cases, I don't think these critic's awards matter much to the Academy anymore, nor should they. The Oscars haven't really been populist since 'The Lord of the Rings', with movies crossing the $100 million mark a rarity. 'The Departed' is the only film that made that of its own volition, whereas 'The Aviator', 'Million Dollar Baby', and 'Brokeback Mountain' barely slugged past the mark, the Academy practically begging the moviegoing public to actually watch the movies they like. The Oscars are neither populist nor elitist. They're inherently conservative-spined films posing as liberal-minded ones. 'Babel' thinks it's art, but it is not. 'Little Miss Sunshine' looks hip until you realize it's an in house production with an A-list cast, a trailer, a soundtrack, and a vibe more than a movie. 'The Departed' is a Martin Scorsese blockbuster that was shot and re-shot into excellence...excellence which was more incidental than pre-planned.
...that's why this year's horse race between 'No Country for Old Men' and 'There Will Be Blood' feels so atypical. I think the producers honestly knew what these maverick filmmakers wanted to do ahead of time and supported them in the hopes of brilliant filmmaking, which was achieved on both parts most would agree.
I don't think Best Actress is closed.
"How's the despair?"