Predictions: Golden Globe Style - Just to break it down a bit...
Um, I know that atomicage. I was referring to the fact that -- in most cases -- the Oscar Best Picture winner has usually been one of the Globes Best Picture winner as well, either from the Drama or Comedy side. I think something like two-thirds of the time, no? And my point below was that this was consistent for eight years (1996-2003) and then suddenly, there were three years in a row where the Globes didn't pick the eventual Oscar winner (2004-2006) and in one case, didn't even nominate the eventual Oscar winner (Crash). This led to three years where we actually had a real race for Best Picture and I guess I'm hoping for another race this year.
Take into account, though, Akash, that the Globes are voted on by the critics, while the Oscars are voted on by the entire Academy. I think it's safe to say that, when you throw actors, cinematographers, editors, directors, producers, screenwriters, set designers, etc. etc. into the mix, you're bound to get a different result many times.Akash wrote:Has the HFPA become irrelevant to a Best Picture Oscar? It will be interesting to see if the Globes continue their recent inability to choose the eventual winner of Oscar's top prize, or if they will return to the position they once held as the best predictor.
In 2004, the Globes picked The Aviator and Sideways, while Oscar went for Million Dollar Baby; in 2005 the Globes picked Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line, while Oscar went for Crash (which wasn't even nominated for Picture at the Globes!) and Walk the Line failed to get a Picture nomination; and in 2006, the Globes picked Babel and Dreamgirls, while Oscar went for The Departed, and Dreamgirls also failed to get a Picture nomination.
Of course these are only three years but they are three of the most recent consecutive years, and it'll be interesting to see if the two groups continue diverging in their choices. Before 2004, you'd have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a year when the Globe Drama or Comedy/Musical prize didn't translate into an Oscar Best Picture win (the Globes picked Sense and Sensibility and Babe, while Oscar went for Braveheart). For a long time, Best Picture was always a boring foregone conclusion. The past three years -- if nothing else -- have at least given us a real race for the top prize and since the Oscars can't be taken seriously as any arbiter of quality, I applaud a race. May the Globe/Oscar capriciousness continue!
I don't think that Blanchett should be counted as supporting, not only because she has a much better fighting chance, but because, in an ensemble piece like "I'm Not There", it's hard to determine who would be considered the lead. And I think if roles like Jake Gyllenhaal's in "Brokeback Mountain" is considered supporting, than Blanchett's definitely should be. It just makes sense.
Again, I don't get the Amy Adams nomination. I need to see that friggin' thing before I can talk for or against it.
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The Original BJ
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Personally, I think Marion Cotillard belongs in the Drama category. She doesn't sing nor is she comedic. However, if Jamie Foxx in Ray is considered a Musical or Comedy performance, then it's pretty likely Cotillard will be as well.
Having seen I'm Not There (which I liked a lot, more later), I have to say that this Blanchett-in-lead development is pretty bizarre. Not only is she not a lead, I don't even see how she could reap more awards through this positioning. By lead standards, it's a very small role: she has far less screen time than even smallish leads like Kidman, McDormand, Witherspoon...even Samantha Morton. In lead, Blanchett might not even be a certain nominee -- a win seems out of the question. (I'm Not There certainly won't be for everyone, but given the anticipated critics' trophies for Blanchett, I think her big hurdle is that she's won so recently. The performance is great. Against a relatively open supporting actress lineup, she's definitely in the running. Against showboaters like Christie & Cotillard...forget about it.)
So Cate Blanchett is a lead and Casey Affleck is supporting. Welcome to Oscar season.
Having seen I'm Not There (which I liked a lot, more later), I have to say that this Blanchett-in-lead development is pretty bizarre. Not only is she not a lead, I don't even see how she could reap more awards through this positioning. By lead standards, it's a very small role: she has far less screen time than even smallish leads like Kidman, McDormand, Witherspoon...even Samantha Morton. In lead, Blanchett might not even be a certain nominee -- a win seems out of the question. (I'm Not There certainly won't be for everyone, but given the anticipated critics' trophies for Blanchett, I think her big hurdle is that she's won so recently. The performance is great. Against a relatively open supporting actress lineup, she's definitely in the running. Against showboaters like Christie & Cotillard...forget about it.)
So Cate Blanchett is a lead and Casey Affleck is supporting. Welcome to Oscar season.
Has the HFPA become irrelevant to a Best Picture Oscar? It will be interesting to see if the Globes continue their recent inability to choose the eventual winner of Oscar's top prize, or if they will return to the position they once held as the best predictor.
In 2004, the Globes picked The Aviator and Sideways, while Oscar went for Million Dollar Baby; in 2005 the Globes picked Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line, while Oscar went for Crash (which wasn't even nominated for Picture at the Globes!) and Walk the Line failed to get a Picture nomination; and in 2006, the Globes picked Babel and Dreamgirls, while Oscar went for The Departed, and Dreamgirls also failed to get a Picture nomination.
Of course these are only three years but they are three of the most recent consecutive years, and it'll be interesting to see if the two groups continue diverging in their choices. Before 2004, you'd have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a year when the Globe Drama or Comedy/Musical prize didn't translate into an Oscar Best Picture win (the Globes picked Sense and Sensibility and Babe, while Oscar went for Braveheart). For a long time, Best Picture was always a boring foregone conclusion. The past three years -- if nothing else -- have at least given us a real race for the top prize and since the Oscars can't be taken seriously as any arbiter of quality, I applaud a race. May the Globe/Oscar capriciousness continue!
Edited By Akash on 1196108116
In 2004, the Globes picked The Aviator and Sideways, while Oscar went for Million Dollar Baby; in 2005 the Globes picked Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line, while Oscar went for Crash (which wasn't even nominated for Picture at the Globes!) and Walk the Line failed to get a Picture nomination; and in 2006, the Globes picked Babel and Dreamgirls, while Oscar went for The Departed, and Dreamgirls also failed to get a Picture nomination.
Of course these are only three years but they are three of the most recent consecutive years, and it'll be interesting to see if the two groups continue diverging in their choices. Before 2004, you'd have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a year when the Globe Drama or Comedy/Musical prize didn't translate into an Oscar Best Picture win (the Globes picked Sense and Sensibility and Babe, while Oscar went for Braveheart). For a long time, Best Picture was always a boring foregone conclusion. The past three years -- if nothing else -- have at least given us a real race for the top prize and since the Oscars can't be taken seriously as any arbiter of quality, I applaud a race. May the Globe/Oscar capriciousness continue!
Edited By Akash on 1196108116
This is exactly the sort of thing we’ve been railing against: positioning performances in certain categories for the benefit of reaping more awards. Now, while Cate Blanchett may be the de facto lead in her portion of the film, the performance is clearly part of an ensemble. This reeks of Weinstein-esque behind-the-scenes wrangling. She belongs in support.
Edited By flipp525 on 1196104163
Edited By flipp525 on 1196104163
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Big Magilla
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It's a bit early for Weinstein and Co. to be tinkering with their "for your consideration" ads. If Blanchett wins as many critics awards for support as she is expected to, it would be folly for them to promote her for lead thus splitting Oscar votes between the two categories which could leave her sitting out the race altogether. On the other hand, it would give them a face saving explanation if she is left out of the nominations anyway.
I haven't read all the reviews of I'm Not There, but support for Blanchett's performance seems to come laregly from people who either love or hate Bob Dylan and not from the larger group of peopel who can take or leave him and are more likely not to be impressed by the performance. Any time you have bloggers falling over themselves to explain and explain why somethng or someone is so great and why anyone who doesn't get it is a fool or a moron, the more skeptical I become. Such is the case this year with Blanchett in I'm Not There and Amy Adams in Enchanted. It also extends to the film I'm Not There itself and somewhat to There Will be Blood, wich hasn't even opened yet.
I haven't read all the reviews of I'm Not There, but support for Blanchett's performance seems to come laregly from people who either love or hate Bob Dylan and not from the larger group of peopel who can take or leave him and are more likely not to be impressed by the performance. Any time you have bloggers falling over themselves to explain and explain why somethng or someone is so great and why anyone who doesn't get it is a fool or a moron, the more skeptical I become. Such is the case this year with Blanchett in I'm Not There and Amy Adams in Enchanted. It also extends to the film I'm Not There itself and somewhat to There Will be Blood, wich hasn't even opened yet.
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OscarGuy
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That's an interesting point, Bog, one that would not be lost on any of us, but such a stunt would be folly. And I'm not so sure it's Blanchett, but the film's production company making the distinction.
Wesley Lovell
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Big Magilla
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I don't think the Globes have ruled yet on whether they will consider La Vie en Rose Drama or Musical/Comedy. Although the film includes a lot of Edith Piaf's music, much of it is in the background. Cotillard does lip synch some of her songs but it is not full on as in a typical biopic, say something like With a Song in My Heart where Susan Hayward is required to lip synch to every one of Jane Froman's songs. It really could go either way.
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For all the talk about the Best Actress race being thin, one race that is definitely NOT thin is the Globe Best Actress Comedy race, which has got to be the most overcrowded in years. If the Globes go strictly for what seem like the Oscar-baiters, the nominees are Amy Adams (instant sensation), Helena Bonham Carter (prestige musical), Marion Cotillard (acclaimed biopic turn), Laura Linney (always-reliable), and Ellen Page (quirky indie comedy).
Of course, such a lineup would exclude a whole bevy of contenders that would have EASILY made the list in any other year: Nikki Blonsky (yet another star-is-born musical turn), Katherine Heigl (pop culture hit), Nicole Kidman (Globe fave), and Keri Russell (Globe-annointed TV star in sleeper hit). Honestly, I think a six or seven-nominee-long list would not be out of the question.
Furthermore, I think the Oscar Best Actress contenders pretty much NEED this nomination to stay afloat. Should Adams, Carter, Linney, or Page miss the list (I think Cotillard is pretty much set), I think they can kiss their Oscar chances good-bye. Of course, that rule would apply in any year -- I can't recall the last time Oscar nominated a comedic Actress who wasn't first cited by the Globes -- but rarely has this category been such a potential bellweather. With such a competitive category, I could imagine any number of frontrunners missing the list entirely, something that would have been unthinkable in years when this category was filled out with candidates like Renee Zellweger in Bridget Jones 2 and Goldie Hawn in The Banger Sisters.
In turn, it will be interesting to see how this overload of Comedy contenders affects the Globe's Drama Actress list. Plenty of candidates that haven't a prayer with Oscar (Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth 2, Jodie Foster, Halle Berry) or ones with very tenuous chances (Angelina Jolie) could get a big boost. Likewise, we won't know whether Keira Knightley's likely nomination here will show genuine enthusiasm or if it's merely de facto. And Julie Christie looks likely to sail to victory here, but that might not tell us much about her chances of Oscar victory -- most of her heavy competition lurks in the other category.
All speculation, of course, at this point...but the paucity/overflow of dramatic/comedic actress roles seems like the reverse of the norm, and worth commenting on.
Of course, such a lineup would exclude a whole bevy of contenders that would have EASILY made the list in any other year: Nikki Blonsky (yet another star-is-born musical turn), Katherine Heigl (pop culture hit), Nicole Kidman (Globe fave), and Keri Russell (Globe-annointed TV star in sleeper hit). Honestly, I think a six or seven-nominee-long list would not be out of the question.
Furthermore, I think the Oscar Best Actress contenders pretty much NEED this nomination to stay afloat. Should Adams, Carter, Linney, or Page miss the list (I think Cotillard is pretty much set), I think they can kiss their Oscar chances good-bye. Of course, that rule would apply in any year -- I can't recall the last time Oscar nominated a comedic Actress who wasn't first cited by the Globes -- but rarely has this category been such a potential bellweather. With such a competitive category, I could imagine any number of frontrunners missing the list entirely, something that would have been unthinkable in years when this category was filled out with candidates like Renee Zellweger in Bridget Jones 2 and Goldie Hawn in The Banger Sisters.
In turn, it will be interesting to see how this overload of Comedy contenders affects the Globe's Drama Actress list. Plenty of candidates that haven't a prayer with Oscar (Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth 2, Jodie Foster, Halle Berry) or ones with very tenuous chances (Angelina Jolie) could get a big boost. Likewise, we won't know whether Keira Knightley's likely nomination here will show genuine enthusiasm or if it's merely de facto. And Julie Christie looks likely to sail to victory here, but that might not tell us much about her chances of Oscar victory -- most of her heavy competition lurks in the other category.
All speculation, of course, at this point...but the paucity/overflow of dramatic/comedic actress roles seems like the reverse of the norm, and worth commenting on.
In answer to your question, Original BJ, concerning my support for films I have yet to see... It actually has more to do with wishful thinking. I've seen the preview, and from what footage I do see, I just hope and pray that the film is as good as it seems to have the potential to be. Like I've said, none of us have a crystal ball; this is all speculation and prediction.
So with that said, I hope Sweeney is good, because I'm liking everything about it. But then again, the same could be said about Lady in the Water. I expected it to be a pretty decent film from Shymalan, but instead, I just got another Paul Giamatti performance (you can never have enough of those, I tell you) inside one of the worst films of 2006.
Also, I will add Amy Adams in, but still, I just don't see all this buzz happening. But then again, I've obviously been wrong before, so...
So with that said, I hope Sweeney is good, because I'm liking everything about it. But then again, the same could be said about Lady in the Water. I expected it to be a pretty decent film from Shymalan, but instead, I just got another Paul Giamatti performance (you can never have enough of those, I tell you) inside one of the worst films of 2006.
Also, I will add Amy Adams in, but still, I just don't see all this buzz happening. But then again, I've obviously been wrong before, so...
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OscarGuy wrote:Enchanted's fluff. It's like Kate & Leopold or other such trifle. I don't know where the sudden awards consideration for the film is coming from. The GGs, though, would be the most likely place for it to be recognized if it's any good.
Enchanted may look like "fluff", but the word on Amy Adams' performance is that it's simply wonderful -- unique, doe-eyed, and endearing -- she literally breathes life into a Disney character in a way that's never really been seen before. It would be like the Academy being able to nominate Belle from Beauty and the Beast in '91. This year's Best Actress race is starting to look like '05, a bit thin. If this film hits big at the box office (which it very well could with new Alan Menken songs said to be the best in years coupled with the star power of Susan Sarandon, Patrick Dempsey, and Idina Menzel who also bring along with their fan-bases), there's really every reason to keep Adams in the running.
Edited By flipp525 on 1194548387
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OscarGuy
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Enchanted's fluff. It's like Kate & Leopold or other such trifle. I don't know where the sudden awards consideration for the film is coming from. The GGs, though, would be the most likely place for it to be recognized if it's any good.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin