a happy outcome either way. :p
In a New York Times Magazine article about I'm Not There, producer Harvey Weinstein says that he will get Blanchett an Oscar nomination or kill himself. (from imdb.com)
It's October, Time for More Predictions
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rolotomasi99
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Mister Tee
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I want to back up Sabin on one particular point: despite the fact that the major ink right now is going to top-line productions (Atonement, There Will Be Blood, American Gangster), it's extremely unlikely we'll see a best picture slate that doesn't include something far smaller. Academy infatuation with itty-bitty indies may have begun from necessity (notably in '96, when the studio stuff stunk so bad), but in the intervening years it's become clear there's at least a caucus that PREFERS such films over even the most extraordinary big efforts. (Perhaps because they feel guilt over the inflated crap they spend most of their time producing. What else could explain Spielberg apparently calling Once -- a movie that, while sweet enough, barely rises above the amateur level -- the movie of the year?)
Which is to say, book in Atonement and There Will Be Blood, but leave a spot for something that appeals to the Full Monty/Chocolat/Little Miss Sunshine crowd (or, at a hgher artistic level, the Lost in Translation/Sideways crew). Something not-so-big -- in fact, the wee-er the better -- will almost surely crack the final five next January.
Which is to say, book in Atonement and There Will Be Blood, but leave a spot for something that appeals to the Full Monty/Chocolat/Little Miss Sunshine crowd (or, at a hgher artistic level, the Lost in Translation/Sideways crew). Something not-so-big -- in fact, the wee-er the better -- will almost surely crack the final five next January.
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The Original BJ
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I hardly think ANY award is in the bag at this point.rolotomasi99 wrote:even if ATONEMENT starts sweeping on oscar night, cinematography is still pretty much in the bag for deakins.
And Jesse James strikes me as having EXACTLY the kind of critically-acclaimed, artsy cinematography that wins all sorts of precursor attention but loses on Oscar night to a far more conventional film (The Man Who Wasn't There, Far From Heaven, Girl With a Pearl Earring, Children of Men, etc.).
Sometime I'll get a review of Jesse James in -- maybe when I'm not working eighteen hour days...
This is very true; Holbrook and Catherine Keener are the best things about the film.dws1982 wrote:but most everything I've read about it says that Holbrook is, despite relatively short screentime both amazing and heartbreaking.
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"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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rolotomasi99
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not only am i sure (dangerous word, i know) THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES will be nominated for cinemtagrophy, but deakins should be writing that acceptance speech now.OscarGuy wrote:And I don't know how I managed to miss Assassination. When I put my list together, I didn't even really think about it, which is odd considering everything I've heard about it.
the man has been nominated five times, but never won. he has two other high profile films out this year as well, and his work in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN would have probably been a contender if not for his other western film.
every review of THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES, whether they liked the movie or not, singled out deakins' work for praise.
even if ATONEMENT starts sweeping on oscar night, cinematography is still pretty much in the bag for deakins.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
As has been noted by others, Best Supporting Actress is shaping up to include another double set of nominees from the same film (perhaps even triple) with the Brionies from Atonement jockeying for positions. Vanessa Redgrave and Saorise Ronan seem most likely as the bookends of the character, but if Romala Garai makes enough of a splash in that meaty mid-section where the heavy atoning occurs, she could get roped in as well. The first two seem like sure bets at this point. This will be the fifth time this decade that this has occurred in this category. See below:
2000 Almost Famous Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand
2001 Gosford Park Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith
2002 Chicago Queen Latifah, Catherine Zeta-Jones
2006 Babel Adriana Barraza, Rinko Kikuchi
2007 Atonement ??
Only one time out of those instances has one of the two actresses nominated for the same film prevailed for the win (CZJ). If both Redgrave and Ronan are nominated, who is more likely to take the award? Redgrave's brief scene is the one the audience is left with and from all reports, it is incredibly powerful. A short but rich performance didn't hurt Beatrice Straight or Judi Dench from winning their respective years and this category seems ripe for a veteran win. Redgrave has the pedigree and the chops to back it up, too. And wouldn't they love to give her another shot at the podium? Ronan, on the other hand, has the benefit of being in the largest chunk of the film where, arguably, the most dramatic parts of the story take place -- both factors in her favor. And it's been years since a child won this award.
Cate Blanchett's Bob Dylan/Jude in I'm Not There seems to have just the right caché of off-the-wall-ness and novelty about it to appeal to the Academy. Any actor who can go from winning an Oscar for playing Katherine Hepburn to believably portraying a male rock icon such as Dylan has clearly demonstrated an almost Streep-like versatility (Streep had accents, Blanchett has androgyny?). Also, having already been singled out by critics and audiences alike for being the stand-out in an ensemble all of whom inhabit the same infamous character, Blanchett seems to be in a solidified position in this category. And unlike last year, where her placement in support for what was essentially a co-lead performance in Notes on a Scandal was argued by several folks on this board, she seems aptly place in Best Supporting Actress for this performance. Would this be the first "woman playing a male" role to win since Linda Hunt took home the trophy for her work in The Year of Living Dangerously?
Jennifer Jason Leigh has been poised on the brink of a nomination for years now, it seems (Rush, Georgia, Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle, etc.). And her performance in this year's Margot at the Wedding might just be her ticket in. She looks great in the preview but will the film's sardonic nature translate into accolades and awards? Or will it suffer the same fate as Baumbach's brilliant but under-appreciated The Squid and the Whale which was put to bed with a nice little writing nomination instead of the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor nominations it deserved? Hard to tell sight unseen.
Others popping up on the shortlist are Amy Ryan's grief-stricken mother in Gone Baby Gone; Olympia Dukakis' casualty of Alzheimer's wife in Away From Her; Olivia Thirlby's supportive best friend in Juno; Helena Bonham Carter's pie-making Mrs. Lovett in Sweeney Todd (or is she going lead this week?); and Tilda Swinton's brash litigator in Michael Clayton. I, like Sabin, prefer to revel in the idea that Julia Roberts will never be nominated again, so talk of her chances for Charlie Wilson's War really do fall on decidedly deaf ears.
My predictions for the time being:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Edited By flipp525 on 1191594274
2000 Almost Famous Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand
2001 Gosford Park Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith
2002 Chicago Queen Latifah, Catherine Zeta-Jones
2006 Babel Adriana Barraza, Rinko Kikuchi
2007 Atonement ??
Only one time out of those instances has one of the two actresses nominated for the same film prevailed for the win (CZJ). If both Redgrave and Ronan are nominated, who is more likely to take the award? Redgrave's brief scene is the one the audience is left with and from all reports, it is incredibly powerful. A short but rich performance didn't hurt Beatrice Straight or Judi Dench from winning their respective years and this category seems ripe for a veteran win. Redgrave has the pedigree and the chops to back it up, too. And wouldn't they love to give her another shot at the podium? Ronan, on the other hand, has the benefit of being in the largest chunk of the film where, arguably, the most dramatic parts of the story take place -- both factors in her favor. And it's been years since a child won this award.
Cate Blanchett's Bob Dylan/Jude in I'm Not There seems to have just the right caché of off-the-wall-ness and novelty about it to appeal to the Academy. Any actor who can go from winning an Oscar for playing Katherine Hepburn to believably portraying a male rock icon such as Dylan has clearly demonstrated an almost Streep-like versatility (Streep had accents, Blanchett has androgyny?). Also, having already been singled out by critics and audiences alike for being the stand-out in an ensemble all of whom inhabit the same infamous character, Blanchett seems to be in a solidified position in this category. And unlike last year, where her placement in support for what was essentially a co-lead performance in Notes on a Scandal was argued by several folks on this board, she seems aptly place in Best Supporting Actress for this performance. Would this be the first "woman playing a male" role to win since Linda Hunt took home the trophy for her work in The Year of Living Dangerously?
Jennifer Jason Leigh has been poised on the brink of a nomination for years now, it seems (Rush, Georgia, Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle, etc.). And her performance in this year's Margot at the Wedding might just be her ticket in. She looks great in the preview but will the film's sardonic nature translate into accolades and awards? Or will it suffer the same fate as Baumbach's brilliant but under-appreciated The Squid and the Whale which was put to bed with a nice little writing nomination instead of the Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor nominations it deserved? Hard to tell sight unseen.
Others popping up on the shortlist are Amy Ryan's grief-stricken mother in Gone Baby Gone; Olympia Dukakis' casualty of Alzheimer's wife in Away From Her; Olivia Thirlby's supportive best friend in Juno; Helena Bonham Carter's pie-making Mrs. Lovett in Sweeney Todd (or is she going lead this week?); and Tilda Swinton's brash litigator in Michael Clayton. I, like Sabin, prefer to revel in the idea that Julia Roberts will never be nominated again, so talk of her chances for Charlie Wilson's War really do fall on decidedly deaf ears.
My predictions for the time being:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Edited By flipp525 on 1191594274
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
www.hollywood-elsewhere.com
Both David Poland and Jeffrey Wells are all about 'American Gangster', calling it Denzel Washington's best performance since 'Malcolm X' and that this is what Ridley Scott can do with a script. Now, Wells and Poland alone are fairly insufferable, but together they might be on to something. I can't imagine 'American Gangster' not making 'The Departed' money. Honestly, the trailer is outstanding and I don't know anybody who can't wait to see it. If Russell Crowe has a bad record of being nominated, then 'A Good Year' aside, all of his movies have factored since 'Gladiator' in a substantial way.
'Juno' has been a crowd pleaser and audience favorite at every festival it has attended. It looks like a 'Ghost World'/'Little Miss Sunshine' hybrid, and I think that could be something. My rationale is that it seems like a lock for a Golden Globe nomination (if not win) and a good bet for the SAG Ensemble win. And with Fox Searchlight behind it, I think you'd be a fool to discount it, Ellen Page, and Diablo Cody whom Los Angelenos are delighted with. A stripper-turned-novelist-turned screenwriter.
Both David Poland and Jeffrey Wells are all about 'American Gangster', calling it Denzel Washington's best performance since 'Malcolm X' and that this is what Ridley Scott can do with a script. Now, Wells and Poland alone are fairly insufferable, but together they might be on to something. I can't imagine 'American Gangster' not making 'The Departed' money. Honestly, the trailer is outstanding and I don't know anybody who can't wait to see it. If Russell Crowe has a bad record of being nominated, then 'A Good Year' aside, all of his movies have factored since 'Gladiator' in a substantial way.
'Juno' has been a crowd pleaser and audience favorite at every festival it has attended. It looks like a 'Ghost World'/'Little Miss Sunshine' hybrid, and I think that could be something. My rationale is that it seems like a lock for a Golden Globe nomination (if not win) and a good bet for the SAG Ensemble win. And with Fox Searchlight behind it, I think you'd be a fool to discount it, Ellen Page, and Diablo Cody whom Los Angelenos are delighted with. A stripper-turned-novelist-turned screenwriter.
"How's the despair?"
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OscarGuy
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I had not yet heard that Leatherheads moved. What source is that info from? I can't corroborate from my usual sources.
I'm all for Elah crashing...and looking now at the film's actual box office, I can't say I'm surprised, nor saddened. It will probably vanish (with no reluctance) from my next predictions.
Though, I'm having a hard time, based on the preview, putting Juno in such major contention. It looks quite a bit like Ghost World stylistically and that wasn't exactly an Oscar rocket.
And since when has the Academy not fallen for the lecture circuit?
And I don't know how I managed to miss Assassination. When I put my list together, I didn't even really think about it, which is odd considering everything I've heard about it.
And something about the preview for American Gangster makes me think it's going to be a giant turd. And everyone's championing Russell Crowe despite his poor record in recent years of getting nominated for films we all think he'd be a big contender for. I'm going to wait until a wider variety of reviews come out on that one.
And while I don't know how good Lions for Lambs is going to be, the Academy does seem to love Redford and the rest of the cast is a smorgasbord of Hollywood names. I can't push it off yet. I must wait for reviews. But I read somewhere, can't remember where, that people are buzzing about the film and there seems to be some genuine admiration for the film.
And PT Anderson's grown up. He's made amends if this film takes off and since the Academy has a hard time recognizing newcomers (Sam Mendes the most notable recent example), I'm thinking Atonement may not get its massive sweep and PT Anderson seems like the perfect choice balancing between the auteur and (if the film's successful) populist members of the director's and actor's branch (and with the number of Academy members Anderson's work with compared to Wright, it might be even more obvious if no one else comes out of nowhere).
Into the Wild certainly has developed some indie cred with its continuing limited release success and Sean Penn has gone from loner to loved. But, I'm not sure such a one-man, non-period show could get nominated....but I'll have to consider some mentions for my next update.
I'm all for Elah crashing...and looking now at the film's actual box office, I can't say I'm surprised, nor saddened. It will probably vanish (with no reluctance) from my next predictions.
Though, I'm having a hard time, based on the preview, putting Juno in such major contention. It looks quite a bit like Ghost World stylistically and that wasn't exactly an Oscar rocket.
And since when has the Academy not fallen for the lecture circuit?
And I don't know how I managed to miss Assassination. When I put my list together, I didn't even really think about it, which is odd considering everything I've heard about it.
And something about the preview for American Gangster makes me think it's going to be a giant turd. And everyone's championing Russell Crowe despite his poor record in recent years of getting nominated for films we all think he'd be a big contender for. I'm going to wait until a wider variety of reviews come out on that one.
And while I don't know how good Lions for Lambs is going to be, the Academy does seem to love Redford and the rest of the cast is a smorgasbord of Hollywood names. I can't push it off yet. I must wait for reviews. But I read somewhere, can't remember where, that people are buzzing about the film and there seems to be some genuine admiration for the film.
And PT Anderson's grown up. He's made amends if this film takes off and since the Academy has a hard time recognizing newcomers (Sam Mendes the most notable recent example), I'm thinking Atonement may not get its massive sweep and PT Anderson seems like the perfect choice balancing between the auteur and (if the film's successful) populist members of the director's and actor's branch (and with the number of Academy members Anderson's work with compared to Wright, it might be even more obvious if no one else comes out of nowhere).
Into the Wild certainly has developed some indie cred with its continuing limited release success and Sean Penn has gone from loner to loved. But, I'm not sure such a one-man, non-period show could get nominated....but I'll have to consider some mentions for my next update.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Big Magilla
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I am very happy to see There will Be Blood in the best picture line-up. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Paul Thomas Anderson take hom the best director prize. Hollywood loves comebacks especially from, prodigal sons who have seen the light.
Into the Wild is shaping up to be this year's Little Miss Sunshine, i.e. the little movie that could. Don't be suprised to see film, Emile Hirsch, Holbrook and director Sean Penn all nominated.
I still haven't come to a conclusion about Sweeney Todd, though I remain skeptical. All we really know at this point is that it is a very slimmed down version of the Broadway musical. That doesn't mean it's bad, just different. It's probably not strong enough to make a best picture nod but it's looking a lot better than either In the Valley of Elah which is not generationg much box office and Lions for Lambs which looks like a potboiler at best.
Right now, I'd say the most likely best picture candidates are There will Be Blood; Atonement; No Country for Old Men, Into the Wild and either Charlie Wilson's War, American Gangster or barring a major come from behind surprise, Sweeney Todd.
Into the Wild is shaping up to be this year's Little Miss Sunshine, i.e. the little movie that could. Don't be suprised to see film, Emile Hirsch, Holbrook and director Sean Penn all nominated.
I still haven't come to a conclusion about Sweeney Todd, though I remain skeptical. All we really know at this point is that it is a very slimmed down version of the Broadway musical. That doesn't mean it's bad, just different. It's probably not strong enough to make a best picture nod but it's looking a lot better than either In the Valley of Elah which is not generationg much box office and Lions for Lambs which looks like a potboiler at best.
Right now, I'd say the most likely best picture candidates are There will Be Blood; Atonement; No Country for Old Men, Into the Wild and either Charlie Wilson's War, American Gangster or barring a major come from behind surprise, Sweeney Todd.
Hal Holbrook is getting a lot of buzz for his Supporting performance in Into The Wild; He seems like he could be a good bet to get one of those nominations that often goes to veteran character actors. Into The Wild is still in very limited release, but most everything I've read about it says that Holbrook is, despite relatively short screentime both amazing and heartbreaking.
I hope that's not true. (I also hope that you don't believe everything the IMDb posters say.)
But Sorkin and Hoffman probably is a smugfest made in heaven.
I've been reading on imdb.com message boards that he's amazing
I hope that's not true. (I also hope that you don't believe everything the IMDb posters say.)
But Sorkin and Hoffman probably is a smugfest made in heaven.
MAJOR ISSUES (no time for minors...)
'Lions for Lambs' doesn't just look like homework, it looks like busy work. I think it's dead. Maybe except for Most Bombastic Score or something.
'Reservation Road' looks like a lecture. Focus has a full enough platter without the pic. Also, this year Fox Searchlight has two 'Little Miss Sunshine's...'Juno' and 'Once'. I honeslty think either one of these has a chance in such a medicinal Fall.
I don't think 'Michael Clayton' is going to have that much pull, least of all with Tom Wilkinson, who has yet to be singled out. And I promise you, Josh Brolin won't get noticed AT ALL for 'In the Valley of Elah'. He's on-screen for three minutes and he doesn't do anything. Erase immediately. I don't like any of your Best Supporting Actor picks. Replace with Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem (support or lead), Russell Crowe for 'American Gangster', Paul Dano, or Philip Seymour Hoffman for 'Charlie Wilson's War' (I've been reading on imdb.com message boards that he's amazing, and with three high profile acting jobs this season, this could be the glossy one to put him over the top - AND NOBODY CARES ABOUT 'INFAMOUS'!).
I don't buy into 'Charlie Wilson's War', or the idea that Julia Roberts will ever be nominated again. Here's a thought I'm putting out there: Leslie Mann in 'Knocked Up'. It could happen.
One nod for 'No Country for Old Men'? NICE! Maybe you'll be predicting four nominations after it wins five. :p Speaking of which, Roger Deakins WILL be nominated this year, most likely for 'The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford' but after 'In the Valley of Elah' and 'No Country for Old Men', I'd say he's locked up for some kind of award. I like him more than 'Across the Universe'. Also, Harris Savides is having a great year with 'Zodiac' and 'American Gangster'.
...right now?...
AMERICAN GANGSTER
ATONEMENT
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
ONCE
...with THERE WILL BE BLOOD in the wings.
'Lions for Lambs' doesn't just look like homework, it looks like busy work. I think it's dead. Maybe except for Most Bombastic Score or something.
'Reservation Road' looks like a lecture. Focus has a full enough platter without the pic. Also, this year Fox Searchlight has two 'Little Miss Sunshine's...'Juno' and 'Once'. I honeslty think either one of these has a chance in such a medicinal Fall.
I don't think 'Michael Clayton' is going to have that much pull, least of all with Tom Wilkinson, who has yet to be singled out. And I promise you, Josh Brolin won't get noticed AT ALL for 'In the Valley of Elah'. He's on-screen for three minutes and he doesn't do anything. Erase immediately. I don't like any of your Best Supporting Actor picks. Replace with Casey Affleck, Javier Bardem (support or lead), Russell Crowe for 'American Gangster', Paul Dano, or Philip Seymour Hoffman for 'Charlie Wilson's War' (I've been reading on imdb.com message boards that he's amazing, and with three high profile acting jobs this season, this could be the glossy one to put him over the top - AND NOBODY CARES ABOUT 'INFAMOUS'!).
I don't buy into 'Charlie Wilson's War', or the idea that Julia Roberts will ever be nominated again. Here's a thought I'm putting out there: Leslie Mann in 'Knocked Up'. It could happen.
One nod for 'No Country for Old Men'? NICE! Maybe you'll be predicting four nominations after it wins five. :p Speaking of which, Roger Deakins WILL be nominated this year, most likely for 'The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford' but after 'In the Valley of Elah' and 'No Country for Old Men', I'd say he's locked up for some kind of award. I like him more than 'Across the Universe'. Also, Harris Savides is having a great year with 'Zodiac' and 'American Gangster'.
...right now?...
AMERICAN GANGSTER
ATONEMENT
JUNO
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
ONCE
...with THERE WILL BE BLOOD in the wings.
"How's the despair?"
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rolotomasi99
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i love that you have included THERE WILL BE BLOOD on your list. even in my wildest dreams, though, i cannot see p.t. anderson actually winning. i would love to be wrong though.
i think your best actress line up is spot on perfect. just like last year, i think the best actress spots are pretty much filled.
i think your best actress line up is spot on perfect. just like last year, i think the best actress spots are pretty much filled.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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OscarGuy
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I've posted my first predictions for October. The more that's leaked about Sweeney Todd, the more I don't like what I'm hearing, so I'm finally bumping it out. There Will Be Blood replaces in some places.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin