Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[flipp525]

ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Denzel Washington - Flight
(ALT - Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables)

Who's your Best Actor ALT? Phoenix? I assume the above is a typo.

[bizarre]

I'm not changing my predictions from pre-SAG:

PICTURE:
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
(ALT - Beasts of the Southern Wild)

DIRECTOR:
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
(ALT - Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained)

ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Denzel Washington - Flight
(ALT - Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables)

ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
(ALT - Rachel Weisz - The Deep Blue Sea)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
(ALT - Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams - The Master
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
(ALT - Judi Dench - Skyfall)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Sessions
(ALT - Life of Pi)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Amour
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
(ALT - Flight)

[MovieWes]

My updated predictions:

Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Ben Affleck - Argo
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuel Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Original Screenplay
Amour - Michael Haneke
Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino
The Master - Paul Thomas Anderson
Moonrise Kingdom - Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo - Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern WIld - Benh Zeitlin, Lucy Alibar
Lincoln - Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
The Sessions - Ben Lewin
Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Painting
Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
The Intouchables (France)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
???

Best Film Editing
Argo - William Goldenberg
Les Misérables - Chris Dickens
Lincoln - Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook - Jay Cassidy
Zero Dark Thirty - Dylan Tichenor

Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey
The Dark Knight Rises - Wally Pfister
Life of Pi - Claudio Miranda
The Master - Mihai Malaimare, Jr.
Skyfall - Roger Deakins

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Alan Lee, John Howe
Les Misérables - Eve Stuart
Lincoln - Rick Carter, Jim Erickson, Peter Frank
The Master - David Crank, Jack Fisk, Amy Wells

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina - Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables - Paco Delgado
Lincoln - Joanna Johnston
The Master - Mark Bridges
A Royal Affair - Manon Rasmusson

Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Lincoln

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina - Dario Marienelli
Beasts of the Southern Wild - Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Howard Shore
Life of Pi - Mychael Danna
Lincoln - John Williams

Best Original Song
"Ancora Qui" from Django Unchained
"Learn Me Right" from Brave
"Skyfall" from Skyfall
"Song of the Lonely Mountain" from The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
"Suddenly" from Les Misérables

[criddic3]

When do they release a complete list of eligible songs?

[rolotomasi99]

BEST PICTURE
 
*Les Miserables

Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln

Argo

Life Of Pi

Silver Linings Playbook

Moonrise Kingdom

Beasts Of The Southern Wild

Django Unchained

The Hobbit

DIRECTOR

*Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln

Les Miserables

Argo

Life Of Pi

ADAPTED

*Argo

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Life Of Pi

Beasts Of The Southern Wild

ORIGINAL

*Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Django Unchained

The Master

Amour

L. ACTOR

*Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables

Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln

Denzel Washington - Flight

John Hawkes - The Sessions

Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock

S. ACTOR

*Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

Alan Arkin - Argo

L. ACTRESS

*Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Helen Mirren - Hitchcock

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

Marion Cotillard - Rust And Bone

S. ACTRESS

*Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Helen Hunt - The Sessions

Sally Field - Lincoln

Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Samantha Barks - Les Miserables

EDITING

*Zero Dark Thirty

Les Miserables

Argo

Lincoln

Life Of Pi

CINEMATOGRAPHY

*Life Of Pi

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

The Master

SET

*Les Miserables

Lincoln

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

The Hobbit

COSTUME

*Les Miserables

Lincoln

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Mirror Mirror

SCORE

*Life Of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Anna Karenina

Brave

SOUND
 
*Les Miseables

Zero Dark Thirty

The Hobbit

Life Of Pi

Lincoln

SOUND EDITING

*Zero Dark Thirty

The Hobbit

Skyfall

Life Of Pi

The Dark Knight Rises

VISUAL EFFECTS

*Life Of Pi

The Hobbit

The Avengers

The Dark Knight Rises

Skyfall

MAKE-UP

*Les Miserables

Lincoln

Hitchcock

[FilmFan720]

So, it has been 9 years since a big, epic film won Best Picture (Lord of the Rings), the longest stretch in Academy history. Since 2003, we have seen a stretch of Best Picture winners that fall are overwhelmingly modern (all are 20th century set, and only The King's Speech and The Artist were set more than 20 years earlier), all span relatively short amounts of time (a couple of years max, except for Slumdog Millionaire) and have fairly compact stories in terms of number of characters and story lines (except for Crash, they are all focused on a small group of people and don't expand beyond them). Several of the films that have won haven't even fell into the "important" film category that smaller films usually have to be to win Oscars (The Artist was a comedy, The Departed and No Country strong genre entries). They have all been "small" Best Picture winners, especially compared to decades like the 60s or the 80s, where big, epic films won over and over again.

That said, does this help or hinder Lincoln and Les Miz? In terms of recent trends, Zero Dark Thirty seems the most in common with the recent slate of winners, and one could even argue Silver Linings Playbook or Argo fit in there too. Is it time that a big historical epic reentered the fray (which you really have to go back to 2000 since one of those won, since Lord of the Rings was a fantasy epic), or will the trend away from those continue?

More and more, I am feeling like Zero Dark Thirty is the film to beat here, even before the NYFCC vote today.

[Mister Tee]

This probably should have been obvious months out, but it only hit me today, after reading this thread, and one over at Awards Daily on Django Unchained...

Having a Hobbit movie, a film version of a beloved Broadway musical, and a Quentin Tarantino film open in the same, Oscar-qualifying month, is as close to the online fanboy harmonic convergence as I ever hope to get.

[OscarGuy]

It's not on the shortlist for Visual Effects. Sound Effects might happen, but I'm doubtful. I think it's possible that both Crowe and Redmayne will be nominated. It's also possible that all three supporting actresses could be nominated Hathaway's a certain nominee. Barks would also be likely in such a dull slate and if the film is huge, Seyfried could even find herself on the list.

[Sabin]

@Sonic Youth
I know some people who have seen it and they say it is as inconsequential a movie as one could see. Shame. It peaked with the released image of Bill Murray as FDR last year.

@OscarGuy
There is a chance it could. Right now, Les Miz seems like a solid contender for twelve nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Song, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing). Those are all pretty healthily within the realm of a nomination. Those three other nominations would either need to come from Sound Effects (likely not Visual Effects), a second nomination for Best Supporting Actress, and Russell Crowe is a lot better than I heard.

[Sonic Youth]

Hyde Park on the Hudson seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth, no?

[OscarGuy]

I think that Les Miz may become the most nominated film in history. Since I believe I am under embargo until I don't know when, I can merely say that were it not to be nominated for between 13 and 16 Oscars I would be surprised.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
Weinstein may be a fantastic salesman in terms of getting his movies nominated, but apart from The Fighter and The King's Speech both getting into Best Picture 2 years ago, he has only had one nominee in the running in spite of having several films on the slate, more than one of which were pushed.

I know you didn't mean it this way, but I don't think that's a necessarily a precedent. Especially considering that The Fighter wasn't his baby. It was only for international distribution. Anything that Harvey can get nominated, he pretty much does. I'm looking back at the list of movies since the expansion that could have viably contended but missed the mark. The only thing I can find is Nine, which was a critically reviled box office failure. A few modest productions like My Week With Marilyn, The Iron Lady, and A Single Man were never going to make the cut in the first place.

This year, Harvey Weinstein has three viable contenders for Best Picture: Django Unchained, The Master, and Silver Linings Playbook. I don't think any of those are second or third tier production. With an expanded Best Picture roster, there is no major reason to count out any of them from a Best Picture nomination besides other the fact that other films are more likely. Even something like The Master, which has not performed nearly as well as anybody expected, has to be considered because it has very strong fans, there was a world of publicity behind it, because critic's awards are going to keep it visible, and because Paul Thomas Anderson is in the club. I'm not saying it's going to get a nomination, but I'm not counting it out. The same is true of Django Unchained. Nobody is going to care about these early test screenings if when it comes out, it's a hit, and it certainly looks like to one me. It's a big Christmas production pushed by Harvey Weinstein directed by Quentin Tarantino who is now firmly "In The Club".

[OscarGuy]

I never underestimate Harvey and have put forth Silver Linings Playbook since the beginning of the year when others weren't. I've even had Django Unchained on the shortlist for awhile as well. That doesn't make it a Best Picture contender. Weinstein may be a fantastic salesman in terms of getting his movies nominated, but apart from The Fighter and The King's Speech both getting into Best Picture 2 years ago, he has only had one nominee in the running in spite of having several films on the slate, more than one of which were pushed. Weinstein got Basterds nominated when he had nothing else Best Picture worthy. Whether the reported frustration between Weinstein and Tarantino over the length of Django Unchained is true or not, Weinstein has Silver Linings to push and while he can do two things at once, his secondary and tertiary efforts have had trouble in the past.

As I said before, I'm not completely writing off any film's chances (unlike some with the chances of The Hobbit). I'm just trying to point out the films that I think have weaker chances at Best Picture nominations than others.

[Sonic Youth]

FYI: I've already proposed a bet to Wes. I don't know if he'll accept it.

I'm not re-watching the Twilight movies. I'll watch the last 2, but I'm not watching the first 3 again. Happy?

LOL!

[MovieWes]

FYI: I've already proposed a bet to Wes. I don't know if he'll accept it.

I'm not re-watching the Twilight movies. I'll watch the last 2, but I'm not watching the first 3 again. Happy?