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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:50 am
by Akash
I'm fine with Blanchett winning for I'm Not There, but my prediction now is Tilda Swinton. And after her funny/cute speech at the BAFTA's, I'm kind of hoping she wins. Between her and Daniel Day Lewis, we'll be guaranteed at least two memorable speeches, which is two more than we usually get at the Oscars from acting winners. And Bardem and Christie aren't boring name checkers either...man what a great year!
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:22 am
by Big Magilla
I will wait for the DVD of I'm Not There, but I have watched all those clips of Blanchett's performance on YouTube. I just don't get the extravagant praise for what to me is less than a mediocre impression of Dylan. It's an amateurish one. If I saw someone give an interpretation like that at a party I would avoid them all evening so as to not hurt their feelings if they insisted on knowing what I really thought. It's just awful.
Blanchett does better in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but the film itself is so deadly dull especially coming as it does on the heels of Helen Mirren's glorious interpretation in the superbly written TV version, Elizabeth I, that it hardly deserves any recognition at all. This is one year Blanchett should have been required to sit out the awards.
Saorise Ronan is the best thing about Atonement, but I don't think she has much of a chance. I do think, though, that she has a bright future and will be back, possibly as a winner in the near future.
Ruby Dee is an unlikely winner for her small role in American Gangster, but odder things have happened. I wouldn't rule her out.
The contest, though, seems to me to be between Amy Ryan and Tidla Swinton. Ryan's come out of nowhere performance in Gone Baby Gone and her almost unanimous embrace at the various critics awards would seem to make her the favorite, but Michael Clayton is such a popular film with the hometown crowd and Tilda Swinton has been such a good actress for so many years now that she may the true upset winner. Her wry self-deprecating acceptance speech at the Baftas was one of the highlights of the evening, despite, or maybe because of that hideous outfit. Sentiment may well be on her side.
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:41 am
by flipp525
Damien wrote:But I just don't get this praise for Blanchett. I thought she was by far the least interesting of all the film's Dylan characters and her segments were the least compelling in the film. She just seemed to me to be a woman doing a mediocre Dylan imitation.
Charlotte Gainsbourg gave the most impressive female supporting performance in I'm Not There.
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 1:41 am
by Damien
I just saw I'm Not There today, which is a very uneven film. But when it's good, it's wonderful, when it's bad it's reallt really bad. And among its bad points, it is often overly literal.
But I just don't get this praise for Blanchett. I thought she was by far the least interesting of all the film's Dylan characters and her segments were the least compelling in the film. She just seemed to me to be a woman doing a mediocre Dylan imitation. (For those of us of a certain age, Dylan imiitations were staples at parties once people got a little drunk.)
And the film itself seems to me to be the complete antithesis of the type of movie the Academy goes for, that, now having seen the movie and her performance, I would be absolutely shocked if Blanchet won.
I haven't seen Dee yet -- the movie comes out on video next week -- so I'll forestall making a final prediction for now. But I think that Amy Ryan (despite the recent awards which make her akin to Hillary Clinton over the past week), Ruby Dee and Tilda Swinton are all equally viable winners. At this point, I'd go with Swinton, whom I had also predicted for the SAG.
I can't believe that Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan were nominated while Catherine Keener was left out.
Edited By Damien on 1202804775
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 8:05 pm
by Zahveed
OscarGuy wrote:Her role is basically a lead in the supporting category.
Moreso the character she plays than her as an actress though. She's supporting in a supporting.
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:33 pm
by OscarGuy
I don't think Saoirse's as borderline as some of you. Atonement obviously had enough supporters to give it a Best Picture nomination. Her role is basically a lead in the supporting category.
I'm not saying she's going to win, but don't count her out yet.
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 6:09 pm
by Hustler
It appears to be complicated this year. With the exception of Saoirse Ronan, I see 4 strong contenders for different reasons, as Flipp pointed out.
Could Win: Ruby Dee
Should Win: Amy Ryan/Cate Blanchett/Tilda Swinton
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:05 pm
by flipp525
Although, I can certainly see any of these actresses pulling off a win, I'm still gonna stick with Amy Ryan. She's above and beyond the best of the bunch (and this is a talented line-up, so that's saying a lot). At the end of the day, I think the most powerful performance will stick with the voters over any of the other factors that all seem to figure into the race this year (child performance, gimmicky/stunt, sentimental vote, small screen-time, etc).
Tilda Swinton, while her film's best chance for a win in the acting categories, is still a bit of a longshot. The same rationale didn't work for Michelle Williams, IIRC.
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:57 pm
by Zahveed
I'm going with Swinton, she's the only one from the film with a chance in the categories it's nominated for.
Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:28 am
by rudeboy
I wanted to get your thoughts on the outcome of this year’s supporting actress line-up. It seems to me the most wide-open acting race for quite some time… I could very easily see any one of the five winning, and they all have marks for and against.
In such a tight race, I suspect Swinton might edge it. Voters will see an opportunity to reward a very fine actress, and to throw a bone at a film they clearly love, but which is unlikely to pick up anything else on the night.
Edited By rudeboy on 1202387415