Pre-Globe Predictions

[avril94]

Yeah its a big hit but not the determining factor when casting a best actor or actress vote, by that Same token Damien Will Smith should have beaten Forest Whitaker last year. Academy members like heavy dramatic performances in the lead categories. I see alot of academy members being dismissive of this type of performance.

[Zahveed]

BEST PICTURE
*There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

BEST DIRECTOR
*Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
*Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
*Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Catherine Keener - Intro the Wild
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Juno - Diablo Cody
Knocked Up - Judd Apatow
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille - Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
*Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

[cam]

Supporting actor seems to be full up, but I am wondering whether Paul Dano will be nominated. Day-Lewis seems to have Best Actor sewed up, and Dano as the antagonist, would seem a logical choice( Washington,Hawke--Training Day; Crowe,Phoenix--Gladiator, etc.)

I heartily disagree re Juno, avril. Why the rancour about this film?



Edited By cam on 1200162911

[Damien]

Ellen Page isn't winning the oscar unless academy members are drunk while casting their final ballots I have a feeling alot of people haven't seen Juno it ain't happening.

Juno is a big hit. It may well join the $100 million club.

[cam]

Re Oscar Hopefuls : Wes--I was surprised to see you have given Into The Wild the win. Not what I believe at all.

[avril94]

Ellen Page isn't winning the oscar unless academy members are drunk while casting their final ballots I have a feeling alot of people haven't seen Juno it ain't happening.

[anonymous1980]

My pre-Globe predictions (major categories only):

BEST PICTURE
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Kelly MacDonald, No Country for Old Men
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
John Carney, Once
Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

[Akash]

Sabin, I think Ratatouille stands a much better chance at a Screenplay nomination than Lars and The Savages, and perhaps even better than Knocked Up. The writers haven't been shy about nominating animated films lately (Toy Story, Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles) and if they could nominate two underwhelming Pixar films and one hideous Dreamworks film, they can certainly nominate the much more thoughtful Ratatouille which actually has something to say about the relationship among artist, art and critic -- which many writers should find appealing.

And I hope to god Gosling isn't nominated.

That Best Picture lineup would be wonderful. Almost TOO wonderful for the Oscars -- which is why I fully expect them to buck the Guilds and good taste and nominate either Sweeney Todd, American Gangster or Atonement. Which -- given the choice among those three -- I would definitely have to hope for Atonement.



Edited By Akash on 1200159641

[Sabin]

What I'm telling you...

Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
...unbelievable lineup. Enjoyed every nominee quite a bit, even 'Juno' which is slight but amusing. The first time in my life where the Oscar will go to one of three of my favorite films of the year...'Into the Wild', 'No Country', and 'There Will Be Blood'.

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
...I have a hard time seeing anybody else here. 'American Gangster' and 'Sweeney Todd' seem done. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gilroy usurp Reitman, but Reitman's becoming something of an industry-beloved wunderkind, and Gilroy's a respected writer/director. Coen Bros. probably win. Wouldn't put it past Anderson though.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises
...I have a very difficult time seeing Depp, Gosling, Hirsch, and Mortenson, and Washington nominated. Still rather amazed that Tommy Lee Jones didn't catch on for 'In the Valley of Elah'. Wouldn't be surprised to see him show up. My rationale is that Depp's singing has come under fire a bit and Washington's movie stretches itself far too thin to fully exploit Washington's acting, and although I see big problems with the others' nominations...Emile Hirsch goes to great actorly lengths to prove himself in 'Into the Wild' (nudity, emaciation, etc.), Mortenson too (nudity, nudity, etc.), and there is too much love out there for 'Lars' to deny him even though I would in a heartbeat for that goonish performance. I know this is the category where I fuck it up. I'm praying for something out of the blue like Jones or Josh Brolin.

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
...the reason why I don't have Linney down as dead is that I have no idea why Linney hasn't done better at all. I can think of several reasons why Blanchett won't be up for 'Elizabeth' or Knightley for 'Atonement' or Carter for 'Sweeney Todd' or Adams for 'Enchanted'...but Linney's only defeating element is her consistent defeat at every single junction, which is odd to me because her role is classic Oscar bait. I'm putting her down, fuck all. The Winner of the Academy Award is Ellen Page.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
...I think this is the lineup. A nod for Jones would be fantastic but from where? I think Hoffman's going to get something this year and even if 'Charlie Wilson's War' is something of a dude, his performance is such classic scene-stealing Oscar bait that he absolutely knocks out of the park. Hal Holbrook wins.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
...Ronan survives the 'Atonement' breakdown. I think sentiment for Ruby Dee is based too much on one scene. I think voters would rather work with Ronan more than honor a beloved veteran. Certainly could be wrong.

Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Knocked Up
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
The Savages
...but it could just as easily be 'Ratatouille' or 'Once' or...something else.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac
...maybe wishful thinking on 'Zodiac''s part. I like 'Away from Her' a lot but I think Polley's crafting of the script and direction might be too subtle. Likewise, I think all the ink about Sorkin's "original" script for 'Charlie Wilson's War' will kill him. I don't think Sorkin will ever be nominated (no idea why he wasn't for 'The American President', but then again I have no idea why 'The American President' wasn't nominated for ten Oscars).

[OscarGuy]

Nice to see you've come around on Into the Wild.

Actually, I'd briefly flirted with Into the Wild as a nominee for Best Picture from the beginning of October through the beginning of December, but after it failed to start showing up at the critics awards, I pushed it aside. Not only does it seem more likely than ever a nominee (based on all the guild lovin'), but I wouldn't put it past the Academy to recognize it as the best of the year. There are two reasons. Everyone loves kids they think could be their kids and with the Holbrook scenes dominating the end of the pic, they may see a lot of themselves in it. It's also an actor/director pic. We've seen Ron Howard, Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson each take home director and picture trophies in the past and Penn is certainly well liked in the industry (that was obvious from the way people were talking about him on the red carpet at the BFCA awards...Right now, I have the Coens winning director and Penn taking screenplay, that could easily switch if the Academy goes for Into the Wild and other groups start swinging that way, too.

[FilmFan720]

My predictions:


Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
*No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises

Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Original Screenplay
Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
Eastern Promises
Juno
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille

Adapted Screenplay
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

[Big Magilla]

Nice to see you've come around on Into the Wild.

[OscarGuy]

Before the Golden Globe Award winners are announced at a press conference on Sunday, I thought I'd update my predictions. With all of the information thrown at us by the guilds this week, a lot of changes have been made. But, here goes:

Oscar Hopefuls