DGA Nominations

[Sonic Youth]

I've thought "Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was a real Best Picture contender ever since the Globe noms, when it was nommed for Best Foreign Language film, Best Director and Best Screenplay.

To all those who still say Schnabel's nom is assured but maybe not the film, I say, look at last year. Look at "Letters from Iwo Jima". That snuck up on everyone to take a Best Picture nom. There were several reasons why. "Dreamgirls" blindsided a lot of people. There was uncertainty over how many in the larger voting bodies (the thousands of guild-members) had seen the film, given its quiet and very late release. But most importantly, let's not forget how many "Best Foreign Language Film" precursors LFIJ won. It also won the BFCA prize (as did "Diving Bell" last night), as well as the Golden Globe, as well as a goodly amount of minor critic's prizes. Granted, it also won Best Film (foreign language or not) from the NBR and the LAFC. "Diving Bell" can't claim that. But the "Foreign Language Film" prizes keep quietly, yet significantly piling up. Meaning, the support and the enthusiasm is there, and it will likely continue with a Globe win and a WGA nomination. And if the enthusiasm proves to be a commonality among most people who see this film, no matter what voting body they're a part of, then I see no reason to count it out for Best Picture.

I don't remember if "Diving Bell" was declared ineligible for AMPAS Foreign Language category. If it was eligible, France really dropped the ball by not picking it.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1200019883

[Sonic Youth]

OG, there's no way in hell Jason Reitman is getting a director nod. I will voluntarily leave this forum if that happens.

Please don't make idle threats. Or, worse, genuine threats.

Anyway, it'll probably be a Juno/Sean Penn Picture/Director split.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1199820987

[Big Magilla]

will someone, for the love of god, explain to me where this seemingly out of nowhere support is coming for MICHAEL CLAYTON!

The old fogies who don't make movies any more. It reminds them of the kind of film they made from the 40s to the 70s.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1199821433

[Big Magilla]

A five for five Oscar match-up is certainly a possibility with this group. I'd prefer Wright or Burton to Gilroy, but no freakin' Jason Reitman, no way. More intriguingly, could this be the ultimate best picture line-up as well?:

I've had my doubts about Diving Bell and Michael Clayton, but they do have strong support and the Academy certainly leans older than the crowd that is ga-ga over Juno.

Atonement could still make the best picture line-up on the strength of its almost certain technical nods, but it does seem less likely than it did. Sweeney is probably out of the race but No Country, There Will Be Blood and Into the Wild are definitely in.

[rolotomasi99]

will someone, for the love of god, explain to me where this seemingly out of nowhere support is coming for MICHAEL CLAYTON!
i just saw the movie last night. it was a very competent film, but was far from great. it was not dramatically all that impressive, and certainly was not cinematically impressive.
the screenplay deserves a nomination, but other than that this film is so underserving. i think i would actually prefer AMERICAN GANGSTER to this film.
the only explanation i can come up with is that hollywood is just happy to not be completely irrelevant. all the other potential oscar nominees are from the indie studio branches. since all the other hollywood prestige films seem to have floundered, this is the only one the can support. this might also explan the resentment they seem to be showing ATONEMENT.

[Eric]

OG, there's no way in hell Jason Reitman is getting a director nod. I will voluntarily leave this forum if that happens.

[OscarGuy]

I would've been happy without Penn here, but considering how ga ga directors get over actors who show competence behind the camera, it was to be expected. I also would have preferred Burton over Gilroy, but this is an otherwise intriguing lineup.

I'm starting to think I might actually like a PTA film (once I see There Will Be Blood), something I never thought would happen.

Well, Kova, I'm a fan of PTA's first two films: Boogie Nights and Magnolia. This film is completely different than those. While there are some technical flourishes to TWBB that was present in the others, narratively this seems more linear and is certainly less controversial.

I think what impresses me most about the film is that it feels like it could have fit in with some of the great pictures of history. It feels like it's a part of several different cinematic high points at the same time.

[Penelope]

This is a pretty good list, though I, too, could've done without Penn, whose direction of Into the Wild is promisingly competent, but didn't, in my opinion, achieve the greatness the fellow actors turned directors Ben Affleck and Sarah Polley achieved last year.

I'm guessing the odd-man-out will be either Penn or Gilroy (or both); I'm hopeful that Polley and/or Joe Wright take their places.

[Akash]

If a lousy actor/director like Mel Gibson can get in, I'm sure Sean Penn can. He's not a lock by any means. But I'm more willing to pick Juno as the Best Picture nominee without a Directing nomination since the Academy seems to do that with the comedies/lighter fare (Jerry Maguire, As Good As It Gets, Chocolat, Little Miss Sunshine).



Edited By Akash on 1199819148

[Eric]

God, I really wish I loved There Will Be Blood.

[Kova]

I would've been happy without Penn here, but considering how ga ga directors get over actors who show competence behind the camera, it was to be expected. I also would have preferred Burton over Gilroy, but this is an otherwise intriguing lineup.

I'm starting to think I might actually like a PTA film (once I see There Will Be Blood), something I never thought would happen.

[OscarGuy]

Historical perspective time:

Only 4 times in history has the DGA gotten a 5-for-5 match up (2005, 1998, 1981, 1977). It seems to be a once-a-decade phenomenon.

Last year, both Bill Condon and Dayton/Faris failed to carry over Oscar noms. That, too, was unusual as it's generally 4 of 5, not 3 of 5 (2006, 1997, 1995, 1993...quite a bit more frequent, though).

There's also generally a 4-for-5 match-up with Best Picture. (5 for 5 in 2005) (3 for 5 in 2002, 2001, 1998) (2 for 5 in 1999)...now, my data only goes back to 1997 as I haven't put together a full comparison excluding PGA for DGA/Oscar yet.

So, I think we can reasonably expect 4 of 5 to hit Best Pic nods and 4 of 5 for Best Director.

Odd Director out: I think Sean Penn might actually be it. He could certainly sneak in, but I also can't see them ignoring Anderson, the Coens, Gilroy (since the film has an Erin Brockovich-like trajectory atm) or Schnabel.

Odd Film out: I think this is far easier to predict since The Diving Bell and the Butterfly while a terrific film is more akin to Barbarian Invasions than it is to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

As for replacements. I think Director could be Jason Reitman an Picture could be Juno, but I could also see a number of other options, including Ridley Scott...though it is surprising that this group wouldn't have recognized him when they were the only ones who did so for Black Hawk Down...

[The Original BJ]

A shockingly non-sucky list.

What's amazing is that recent Oscar lineups have been even hipper than the DGA list (with surprise nods for Greengrass, Leigh, Meirelles, Almodovar)...but the DGA gave us a pretty hip list this year. (Based on past years, I had pegged Schnabel as Oscar's odd-man-out surprise nominee; now he seems all but certain.)

I'd say Wright becomes a long shot candidate at best. When was the last time such an obvious nominee missed and recovered at the Oscars?

There Will Be Blood keeps chugging.

Damien is very right about Michael Clayton; even in my smaller circle, Michael Clayton is beloved around Hollywood. I concur that Michael Clayton will most likely be this year's film/not director candidate.

Into the Wild is also liked a lot around town, and I think the directors' love for actors makes Penn a very likely candidate.

Please let this be the end of American Gangster.

[Akash]

This is as wonderful a list as we could have expected. BOTH the Coens and PTA? No Burton, no Atonement? Hell yeah!

If the Oscars copied this list entirely, it would be one of the strongest lineups in years.

[dylanfan23]

I'm not much of a predictor but in my opinion its looking like this:

Picture:
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country
There Will Be Blood

Director
Anderson
Coens
Gilroy
Penn
Schnabel