Post-Golden Globe Nod Predictions

[Anon]

Some have wondered if it's too early to start doing Ocar nom predictions.

Well, what about Oscar wins?

I'm willing to give it a try (at least in the Acting categories)

Lead Actor: Johnny Depp (is this going to be his 3rd nomination? Three times might be the charm, and the praise for his performance has been consistent, especially since the character so resonates with his iconic eccentricities).

Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (another multiple-time Oscar nominee, maybe many may think he's now due the trophy, especially since many will also believe his dark character makes this movie - so much so, that they have to pretend he's supporting and not lead here - I predict a del Torro-type victory).

Lead Actress: Julie Christie (again, the praise is pretty consistent, and an opportunity to recognize another mature actress two years in a row).

Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan (consistent praise and the most assured lock in this category).

[anonymous1980]

My post-Globes/critics take on the race:

BEST PICTURE

Lock: No Country for Old Men

Looking Good: Atonement, Sweeney Todd, There Will Be Blood

Fighting for the last spot/s: Juno, Michael Clayton.

In need of the guild recognition: American Gangster, Charlie Wilson's War, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Into the Wild.

BEST DIRECTOR

Lock: Joel and Ethan Coen.

Looking good: Tim Burton, Joe Wright, Paul Thomas Anderson.

Fighting for the last spot/s: Julian Schnabel, Sean Penn.

In need of guild recognition: Ridley Scott, Tony Gilroy, Jason Reitman.

BEST ACTOR

Lock: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Looking good: George Clooney, Johnny Depp.

Fighting for the last spot/s: Emile Hirsch, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, James McAvoy.

In need of guild recognition: Ryan Gosling, Tom Hanks, Frank Langella.

BEST ACTRESS

Lock: Julie Christie.

Looking good: Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page.

Fighting for the last spots: Amy Adams, Angelina Jolie, Keira Knightley, Helena Bonham Carter.

In need of guild recognition: Cate Blanchett, Jodie Foster, Laura Linney.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Lock: Javier Bardem.

Looking good: Casey Affleck, Tom Wilkinson.

Fighting for the last spot/s: Albert Finney, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Hal Holbrook.

In need of guild recognition: John Travolta.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lock: Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan.

Looking good: Saoirse Ronan, Tilda Swinton.

Fighting for the last spot/s: Kelly MacDonald, Romola Garai, Vanessa Redgrave.

In need of guild recognition: Jennifer Garner, Julia Roberts.

[Sonic Youth]

Best Picture

Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

and either:

Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood

Very interesting to see what happens. A SAG Ensemble nod should benefit Clayton; a DGA nom should benefit There Will Be Blood. If either fails to deliver, it hurts the respective film immensely. (Although I can't see how Michael Collins won't get a SAG Ensemble nod, since three individual nominations seem in the cards.)


Best Director

Tim Burton
Paul Thomas Anderson
Joel and Ethan Coen
Julien Schnabel
Joe Wright


Best Actor

George Clooney
Daniel Day Lewis
Johnny Depp
Viggo Mortenson
Denzel Washington

(EDIT: For some reason, I didn't think to put Depp on the list. Frank Langella? What was I thinking???)


Best Actress

Marion Cotillard
Julie Christie
Jodie Foster
Angelina Jolie
Ellen Page


Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Max Von Sydow
Tom Wilkinson

(Like Eric, I just can't allow Travolta to grace this category. Who classier than Von Sydow?)


Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett
Julia Roberts
Saroise Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton


Best Original Screenplay

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
The Savages


Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

By the way, this should be a fearsome race between Atonement and NCFOM.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1197633801

[VanHelsing]

The TOP 3 in each categories...

Picture
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men

Director
Tim Burton
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Joe Wright

Actor
George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis
Johnny Depp

Actress
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Ellen Page

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Tom Wilkinson

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton

YOU can call them "locks" if you want to...

[Penelope]

Best Picture:

1. No Country For Old Men
2. Atonement
3. Michael Clayton
4. Sweeney Todd
5. There Will Be Blood

This is now getting tricky: No Country For Old Men is definitely in for a nomination, but that still doesn’t mean its win is assured. And ANY of the other four could be replaced by The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Juno, American Gangster and/or The Kite Runner.

Best Director:

1. Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men)
2. Tim Burton (Sweeney Todd)
3. PT Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
4. Joe Wright (Atonement)
5. Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)

Given the strength of this year’s contenders, I think the Director will only have one “odd-man out”—but that person could also be Sean Penn (Into the Wild), Ridley Scott (American Gangster) or Sarah Polley (Away From Her).

Best Actor:

1. Daniel Day Lewis (No Country For Old Men)
2. Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
3. George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
4. James McAvoy (Atonement)
5. Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

The first two seem to be pretty much assured of a nomination, and Clooney is getting close to that; McAvoy, thankfully, reemerges from the Golden Globes as a contender, but I’m still a bit wary (I remain hopeful, though); I suspect that American Gangster would be placing 6th in many of the top categories, with enough high placements for Washington to put him into the race; but he could be readily replaced by Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild), Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening) or Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises).

Best Actress:

1. Julie Christie (Away From Her)
2. Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
3. Ellen Page (Juno)
4. Keira Knightley (Atonement)
5. Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd)

Christie, Cotillard and Page are in; Knightley and/or Carter could be replaced by Laura Linney (The Savages), Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) and/or Amy Adams (Enchanted).

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)
2. Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James….)
3. Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
4. Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
5. Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)

Another tricky category: after Bardem and Affleck (who, I now think, is pretty much assured of the nomination, though, as we know, the correct category for him would be Best Documentary Feature); and Wilkinson, Holbrook and Hoffman seem to be pretty strong, with Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) and Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) waiting in the wings.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
2. Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
3. Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
5. Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)

Catherine Keener (Into the Wild) could replace either of the Atonement actresses.

[jack]

I can see Knightly getting in ahead of fellow country-man McAvoy, but there's something about Atonement that makes me think of Cold Mountain - close but no cigar.

Is it just me but is I'm Not There being horribly overlooked? I happen to think this the best film of 2007... If Tod Haynes isn't nominated for Best Original Screenply then...

I still don't think we're anywhere near close to the final five nominees in the Best Picture catoagory. I don't know why, but can see there being several shock nominees over many catagories on nomination monrning. And that's not wishfull thinking.



Edited By jack on 1197595998

[Anon]

My predictions:

Best Picture:
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Best Lead Actor:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement

Best Lead Actress:
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marian Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Tang Wei, Lust, Caution (one can always dream, especially if the Academy still believes in delivering surprises)

Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Talk to Me
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Jurnee Smollett, The Great Debaters

Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joe Wright, Atonement

[ITALIANO]

I wonder why it would be still too soon... if not now, then? On nominations day?



BEST PICTURE
American Gangster
Atonement
Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

I still think that The Kite Runner could get there, but I can't deny that I thought it was the "perfect" movie for the Golden Globes, and it mostly failed there.

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Divine Bell and the Butterfly
Ridley Scott, American Gangster

I know, I'm the only one thinking that Joe Wright could be ignored. But this is a strange year, an unusually interesting year.

ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

The Globes make me more optimistic about James McAvoy's chances (though I never seriously had doubts about them). Only the SAG nominations could make me delete his name.

ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

But I feel that I'm wrong on something here.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

I still hope that Catherine Keener will be there rather than the not especially impressive young Ronan. But something tells me that it won't happen easily.



Edited By ITALIANO on 1197591452

[FilmFan720]

My thoughts:

BEST PICTURE
American Gangster
Atonement
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

BEST DIRECTION
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

BEST ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marian Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton



Edited By FilmFan720 on 1197587318

[Big Magilla]

I'll have a firmer grip on this after the SAG nominations are announced next Thusday, but for now:

Best Picture
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

Michael Clayton is the most likely middling nominee though Juno or There Will Be Blood could get in instead of either it or Into the Wild.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
James McAvoy, Atonement

I still think Frank Langella could land a spot for Starting Out in the Evening but at whose expense? I'd put him in in place of Clooney, but I'm guessing that won't happen. The SAGs could give us a heads up.

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd) could upset either Knightley or Linney, and then there's Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) still looking over everyone's shulders.

Best Supporting Actor
Caey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

The safe money is probably on Seymour scoring another nod for Charlie Wilson's War over von Sydow but I'm hoping they will consider his best actor award just two years ago enough for a while.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) could replace any one of them. Blanchett would be my hope, but probably not.

Best Director
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement

Michael Clayton is the most likely best picture nominee without a best director nod, Juloian Schnabel the most likely best direcgtor nomineee whose film doesn't make it the top five.

[Steph2]

I agree with Eric in the other Golden Globe thread - PTA's film probably only got in as a result of the expanded category and may end up only scoring Screenplay, Lead Actor and maybe a tech nod or two at the Oscars. Sad. I think Into the Wild will do better at the Oscars if only because they love actors turned directors even more than the HFPA. Oh and if The Kite Runner does reasonably well at the box office and starts to build momentum, it could replace Sweeney Todd or Michael Clayton and maybe even win the whole damn thing. I reserve my right to alter my predictions if the film does well at the various Guild awards.

BEST PICTURE:
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

If Ridley Scott could get nominated on a last minute push for Black Hawk Down , then surely he can get in for the more audience friendly and better timed in terms of Oscar campaigning, American Gangster.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd

[Zahveed]

BEST PICTURE
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton

BEST DIRECTOR
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Sweeney Todd - Tim Burton
No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
Atonement - Joe Wright
Into the Wild - Sean Penn

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement
Into the Wild
Away from Her

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Michael Clayton
The Darjeeling Limited
Knocked Up
Ratatouille

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
James McAvoy - Atonement
Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Laura Linney – The Savages
Helena Bonham Carter - Sweeney Todd
Ellen Page – Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano – There Will Be Blood
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett – I'm Not There
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Ruby Dee - American Gangster


BEST ANIMATED
Ratatouille
The Simpson's Movie
Persepolis

BEST EDITING
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Atonement
American Gangster


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Into the Wild
Atonement

[Greg]

My Best Picture guesses:

Atonement
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Into The Wild
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

[Eric]

This is the earliest I ever deign to make predictions, and it's still a little too early yet, but here are a couple categories.

PICTURE
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead <-- just for fun, for now
Joe Wright, Atonement

[OscarGuy]

We always have them. So, take a stab at your Oscar predictions post-Globes. (Please note I will NOT be reading these lists until I post my own list, just so I won't be unduly influenced by others' opinions).