New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Post by **Greg** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:57 pm

Does anyone think that, considering the advanced age of many Academy members, there are still a lot of members who won't vote for Redgrave because of her speech when she won for Julia?

Post by **FilmFan720** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:51 pm

Vanessa Redgrave will not be a sentimental favorite like Morgan Freeman was, or Robin Williams, or even Cate Blanchett. She already has an Oscar, and there is not as great a clamoring for a second Oscar for her as there was for Freeman to win an Oscar.

And Gone Baby Gone is still playing at just about every multiplex here in the Chicago area. It seems to be the kind of movie everyone discovers to like much more than they expected, and Amy Ryan is the perfect way to award the film. Right now, I can't see anyone else challenging her (but that can easily change).

And M. Emmett Walsh has no chance of a nomination.

Post by **Penelope** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:50 pm

We don't have a sentimental favorite? If Vanessa Redgrave gets nominated, she could be that sentimental favorite.

But Vanessa already has an Oscar, whereas the others--Freeman, Williams, Blanchett, Arkin--didn't. Also, I'd say that Vanessa isn't quite beloved in the way that Freeman, Williams and Arkin are--their speciality is playing lovable characters; that is hardly Vanessa's stock in trade.

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Post by **Damien** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:49 pm

OscarGuy wrote:We don't have a sentimental favorite? If Vanessa Redgrave gets nominated, she could be that sentimental favorite.

Given her politics and her past Oscar history, Vanessa Redgrave will never ever be a sentimental favorite with Academy voters.

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Post by **OscarGuy** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:38 pm

We don't have a sentimental favorite? If Vanessa Redgrave gets nominated, she could be that sentimental favorite. (and yes, I realize Lauren Bacall was also a sentimental favorite, but I'm just putting that out there).

In Supporting Actor, there could be some love for M. Emmet Walsh, but his chances all hinge on GG recognition. Without it, I'm afraid he'll never make it to the gala.

And Amy Adams had quite a bit of critical concensus around her. She nabbed a number of prizes, but her film was small and not a terribly big box office draw. Gone Baby Gone has already left the cineplex and may require some voters to catch a screening or a screener. Adams may not be the BEST correlation, but I'm thinking it's a good one at this point.

Post by **Mister Tee** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:13 pm

Well, obviously this is partly my own personal mojo, but when I view someone as the likely front-runner AND when I don't see anyone credible out there to beat her AND when she starts sweeping critics' prizes, I start viewing her a a lock. So, it's not a matter of my simply counting up critics' groups (for openers, I continue to take only the original 4 -- NY, National, La and NBR -- truly seriously). It's judging the overall gestalt.

All those past "upsets" you note failed to meet one or another of those criteria. Madsen won alot of prizes, but Blanchett and Linney were always credible opposition. Haden Church was clearly going to run up against Freeman's years of veteran popularity, whatever critics said. Jackie Earle Haley's skeevy character NEVER seemed to me a possibility to win an Oscar. Reynolds had some of the same, plus the more clearly beloved Robin William as credible opposition.

I always thought Blanchett this year was unlikely, because of her recent win and her film's artiness, and I don't see anyone else close to Ryan as additional competitor. No, I'd never bet the rent money on any Oscar outcome (see: Brokeback), but right now it's hard to imagine Ryan losing. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

NOTE: I'll be away from the computer a few hours, so if I don't respond to rebuttals, that will be the reason.

Post by **Penelope** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:01 pm

But OscarGuy, in those cases, there was a sentimental choice that easily overpowered the critics' favorite; I don't see a sentimental favorite vying for Supporting Actress this year; I'm not saying Ryan will definitely win, but I think she's more likely than most of the ones you mentioned.

Post by **Big Magilla** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:56 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Come on, Tee, you know better than to call sure bets this early...I'm quite surprised at you...do you not remember Virginia Madsen.

She had New York AND Los Angeles plus 12 other precursors. She lost out to Cate Blanchett.

Yes, but Blachett has her Oscar now. It won't be easy for her to win a second, escpecially for as divisive a f film as I'm Not There.

I do think, however, that supporting actress is still wide open. Ryan's multiple awards make her the front-runner, but this is a category that is most rife for upsets.

Post by **Big Magilla** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:52 pm

Damien wrote:The other Big Loser from this past week's awards is Sweeney Todd, Wasn't Tom O'Neil just touting it as the Oscar front-runner?

I have to laugh becasue every time I go to O'Neill's blog and read his blog name "tomoneill" fast it looks like "toenail" and I think how can anyone take a toenail seriously.

Seriously, though, I wouldn't have expected Sweeney Todd to win either N.Y. or L.A. I think it will do better with the Globes and Broadcasters.

Post by **OscarGuy** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:49 pm

Come on, Tee, you know better than to call sure bets this early...I'm quite surprised at you...do you not remember Virginia Madsen.

She had New York AND Los Angeles plus 12 other precursors. She lost out to Cate Blanchett.

How about Jackie Earle Haley? He didn't pick up LA, but he had 7 prizes other than LA, including NY and lost to Alan Arkin.

Thomas Haden Church...19 critics prizes, including LA and NBR. Lost to Morgan Freeman.

Burt Reynolds...LA, NY, even the GG and BAM Robin Williams.

And that's not all of the Critics-hailed upsets...I may have done some declaring early in the Oscar season, but I'm not about to get sucked into that trap. We know too often in the past few years that slam dunks don't always materialize (Dreamgirls BP nom, Brokeback Mountain for BP)...

Bardem and Ryan are probably safe now for nominations as are Day-Lewis, Cotillard and Christie, but as the season presses on, no one is safe for a win.

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Post by **Eric** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:38 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Where's Mike D'Angelo? (Or is he no longer a Circle member?)

He's been totally silent all morning. Maybe they confiscated his Blackberry this year.

Post by **OscarGuy** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:35 pm

I watched Starting Out in the Evening last night. Langella is certainly good, but far from a career-capping standout. I think there are nuances to his performance that certainly an actor can love, but it may be too soft a performance for critics. And let's not forget how many critics groups crowned Daniel Day-Lewis previously. I honestly think he's a beloved son of theirs. Langella's probably going to get the nod. I don't think he's ever been a contender because even Peter O'Toole couldn't ride sentimentality to a win. If Langella were actually a supporting player, you might say he'd be a near-lock to win...as it stands, he's not.

Post by **Mister Tee** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:33 pm

I'd say the fact that these awards are somewhat as you'd predict doesn't make it a dull season. Neither No Country nor There Will Be Blood strike me as down-the-middle best picture types. The fact that they've done best in these derbies makes nominations more likely (No Country certain; Blood in the ballpark), but, as far as winning, I think they're in the class with Hannah and Her Sisters, LA Confidential and Sideways -- multiple critics' winners that didn't take home the top Oscar. Both the Broadcast-ers and Glob-ules will no doubt provide some more easy-listening choices later this week -- Atonement, The Kite Runner, whatever. This season has a long way to go.

Same with the lead acting prizes. Good for Christie here, but Cotillard winning both LA and Boston makes it a dogfight, not a runaway. And sometimes, when the critics split between two strong contenders, they allow a dark-horse third candidate to slip through...like Kidman in '02, or, the classic case, Tomei in '92. My caution: don't start mocking Amy Adams just yet.

As for Day-Lewis...I'm still dubious about the overall reception his film will get. Our own rainbard seems to think it will be hated by not a few, and it's very hard for even a great performance to win when a significant number of voters despise the film that contains it.

The supporting prizes, on the other hand, seem to be entering lock-land. Whatever No Country's overall fate, Bardem seem likely to win the way Pesci did for Goodfellas. And Ryan, who I already felt would win, is becoming a sure-shot.

Anyone hear anything on runners-up? Where's Mike D'Angelo? (Or is he no longer a Circle member?)

Post by **Damien** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:28 pm

Big Magilla wrote:This is the award Frank Langella had to win to be a true player at the Oscars.

I agree, Big. Langella could still nab a nomination (I haven't seen the film yet, but it sounds like a performance other actors might appreciate) but it won't be easy.

The other Big Loser from this past week's awards is Sweeney Todd, Wasn't Tom O'Neil just touting it as the Oscar front-runner?

Post by **Big Magilla** » Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:01 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Amy Adams, maybe, Magilla?

I was beign facetious.

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New York Film Critics Circle Winners