NBR Predictions

[Mister Tee]

My contribution. A few guiding thoughts:

Seems to me if you had a computer design a program to create the NBR winner, they'd come up with Atonement: period setting, vaguely humanist approach, historic sweep.

Second and (and sometimes third) place frequently goes to a darker, critically acclaimed piece -- hence, No Country.

The secondary Notable Films list makes it less predictable, but indie faves like Once and Juno used to be sure shots to make the list.

Always include one Oscar no-hoper (3:10 to Yuma) and a semi-forgotten hipster fave (Zodiac).

I notice no one's including the Special Achievement category -- which usually goes to a multi-threat person (actor/director, director/writer, writer/producer, etc.). There aren't many strong candidates this year.

Films:

1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. Sweeney Todd
4. The Kite Runner
5. Once
6. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
7. Zodiac
8. Juno
9. 3:10 to Yuma
10. The Savages
(runners-up: Michael Clayton; American Gangster)

Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (all three movies)
(ru: Frank Langella)
Actress: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
(ru: Laura Linney)
Sup. Actor: Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(ru: Hal Holbrook)
Sup. Actress: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
(ru: Ruby Dee)

(Someone has to not copy Magilla. I was actually tempted to go Dee, to insure the long-standing NBR tradition of one acting winner not making it to the Oscar nominations)

Director: the Coens (No Country)
(ru: Sidney Lumet)
Ad. Screenplay: No Country
(ru: Atonement)
Or. Screenplay: Michael Clayton
(ru: The Savages)
Special Achievement: Sarah Polley
(ru: Tamara Jenkins)

I can't be bothered with the rest.

[Big Magilla]

It actually came to me while I was writing it. I was going to just write Ronan's name, then I thought, no, this is the NBR, they like giving mutliple awards, they're going to give it to all three, assuming othat they don't do what is expected and give it to Cate Blanchett for a film I really don't think appeals to their membership.

[anonymous1980]

Interesting. Did you guys all come up with the idea of the three actresses from Atonement winning supporting actress on your own or did I give you the idea?

We all stole it from you. It does really make perfect sense.

[Big Magilla]

No problem, I was just curious. After all, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, or so they say. :;):

[Sabin]

I copped to stealing the idea from you. A good idea is worth stealing.

[Big Magilla]

Interesting. Did you guys all come up with the idea of the three actresses from Atonement winning supporting actress on your own or did I give you the idea?

[anonymous1980]

Let me try my hand at this:

BEST PICTURE: Atonement
BEST DIRECTOR: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie, Away from Her
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
BEST SCREENPLAY: Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - MALE: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - FEMALE: Ellen Page, Juno
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Lake of Fire
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone

TOP TEN
01. Atonement
02. There Will Be Blood
03. No Country for Old Men
04. Away from Her
05. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
06. Gone Baby Gone
07. American Gangster
08. Into the Wild
09. Michael Clayton
10. Zodiac

TOP FIVE FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS
01. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
02. La Vie En Rose
03. Lust, Caution
04. The Lives of Others
05. Black Book

SPECIAL CITATIONS FOR ACHIEVEMENT IN FILMMAKING
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
I'm Not There
Juno
Once
The Savages



Edited By anonymous on 1196650878

[atomicage]

As will I...

Best English-Language Film
Atonement
Away from Her
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
Once
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

(Zodiac, I'm Not There or The Savages could definitely fit in here somewhere, I have no doubt)

Best Foreign-Language Film
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Black Book
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
La Vie En Rose
The Lives of Others

(Kite Runner or Persepolis might sneak in)

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille

(It's only competition is Persepolis, I think)

Best Documentary
Sicko

(I can't see anything taking this from Michael Moore, not now anyway)

Best Actor
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men

(Honestly, I don't know. I just went with Brolin because... well... I couldn't make up my mind.)

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her

(Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page, or Keira Knightley might steal it, but I don't see it likely; why does Angelina Jolie come to mind?)

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, Assassination of Jesse James...

(I'm surprised nobody's predicted this yet, what with Javier Bardem the favorite, but not the likely for this particular one)

Best Supporting Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

(I guess I'll go with that theory)

Best Director
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

(though Lumet could definitely get a few "still kickin'" awards)

Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay
Christoper Hampton, Atonement

(but P.T. Anderson or the Coen brothers could pose competition)

Best Ensemble
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

(I wonder if No Country would count as ensemble, because that cast was fantastic; I'm Not There could also sneek in)

Best Breakthrough Male Performance
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Best Breakthrough Female Performance
Ellen Page, Juno

Best Directorial Debut
Sarah Polley, Away from Her

(with Tony Gilroy right behind her)

[Sabin]

I'll give it a shot...

BEST ENGLISH-LANGUAGE FILM - Into the Wild
(and in alphabetical order)
Atonement
Away from Her
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Once
The Savages
There Will Be Blood

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
(and in alphabetical order)
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
Black Book
La Vie en Rose
The Lives of Others

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Ratatouille

BEST DOCUMENTARY - Sicko
(and in alphabetical order)
The King of Kong
Lake of Fire
My Kid Could Paint That
No End in Sight

BEST ACTOR - Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah & No Country for Old Men

BEST ACTRESS - Marion Cotilliard, La Vie en Rose

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement (a good idea is worth stealing)

BEST DIRECTOR - Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Atonement

BEST ACTING BY AN ENSEMBLE - Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - (Male)
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - (Female)
Ellen Page, Juno

BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT -
Sarah Polley, Away From Here

BILLY WILDER AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN DIRECTING - Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton



Edited By Sabin on 1196625431

[Big Magilla]

Actually I predicted Langella and Holbrook because everybody else is predicting Daniel Day-Lewis and Javier Bardem and teh NBR never does what everyoen expects them to.

While their aged members could certainly go for Day-Lewis and Bardem in acclaimed performances in the kinds of films they like, they are just as likely to go for Langella and Holbrook in roles that speak more directly to them. Langella plays a real life dying writer and Holbrook a retired scientist.

Similarly, they could just as easily go for Marion Cotillard in La Vien en Rose as for Christie, but Christie's character probably hits closer to home for most of them.

I picked the three actress who play Briony in Atonement for supporting actress because they have a history of either giving awards to actors for multiple performances or splitting the award between actors in the same film (Sarandon and Davis in Thelma & Louse, Binchoe and Scott Thomas in The English Patient). This one is right up their alley.

As for best picture, any one of the first three I listed could win. I wouldn't think There Will Be Blood could take the top spot, but then I didn't think Quills could either a few years ago. More than ever, it's a crap shoot.

[cam]

Hal Holbrook, Frank Langella...do you include these because they are known in New York( not that they are not worthy)?

[Big Magilla]

The National Board of Review typically gets the ball rolling on awards season. The exclusionary Independent Spirit Awars don't count and the Satellites with their early eligibility cut-off period this year don't either.

Here then my predictions fo rthe awards to be announced Wedneday, December 5th:

Ten Best Films in English
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
There Will Be Blood
Sweeney Todd
Gone Baby Gone
Away From Her
The Savages
Juno
Control

Five Best Foreign Language Films
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Kite Runner
La Vie en Rose
Black Book
The Lives of Others

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille

Best Documentary
Sicko

Best Actor
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her

Best Supporting Actor
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Best Supporting Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

Best Director
Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Screenplay
Away From Her (Sarah Polley)

Best Breakthrough Performance - Male
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Best Breakfthrough Performance - Female
Ellen Page, Juno

Best Directorial Debut
Sarah Polley, Away From Here