Okri wrote
For the sake of argument, I'll agree with your top five, Sabin, though I'm a little curious about The Holdovers.
Having seen The Holdovers, I'm interested in your thoughts. I don't see it as an Oscar juggernaut by any stretch. I'm going to check it out again. I like it fine, but it's not as thorny or sentimental as one might want from something like this. That said, I think it benefits from weaker standing of other contenders.
Okri wrote
Let's pair up the ten you mention (and I do think that the remaining five will come from those ten)
The Cannes Duo: Because the Neon and A24 purchased Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, they started popping up on prediction lists. I think that's the reason, because they really are quite removed from what AMPAS usually goes for. I've not seen the Glazer, but it's not as if we thought Under the Skin was going to be a best picture nominee in 2013. Anatomy of a Fall is more straightforward, but without the chutzpah that I think it needs to make it in. Drive My Car is a noteworthy antecedent for the Triet, but I don't think that makes it in without the critics awards universally pushing it (and if they do so for the Triet, I'll start predicting it).
I haven't seen The Zone of Interest but I agree with you on Anatomy of a Fall. I would be far more bullish on it if.... y'know, it wasn't a legal drama executed with zest. I'm not the biggest Drive my Car fan but it's a far fuller meal.
Okri wrote
The Netflix Biopics: I'm also quite curious as to why Maestro isn't a frontrunner in this conversation and honestly, I wonder if there's a degree of exhaustion about biopics. I assume I'm projecting a little, but there's a degree of remove to both Cooper and Mulligan (relative to the Oscars) that allows me to rationalize my hesitance. I'd predict it, but not with conviction. As for Rustin, I think that's an acting play only in this race.
Agree with Rustin, and it might not even get in for Actor at this point.
With Maestro, I think you make a good point. I just wonder if there's something about the film that isn't in the zeitgeist right now. Maybe Sondheim fatigue, considering West Side Story just bombed. Or maybe a closeted gay love affair just looks passé right now. I think the strike will affect its campaigners, but idk every trailer looks better than the one before. Jeffrey Wells, Owen Gleiberman, and Alonso Duralde all really like it. That's a wide litmus test. If its as good as I think it might be, I think it's locked in for Best Picture with a revolving door of other nominations ranging from 7-10. It actually might be a good play for an Editing nomination.
Okri wrote
The Early releases: I think Past Lives is in. I've seen it twice and its really lingers after. I may have overstated it's awards potential, but I'd be surprised if it got left out. Meanwhile, I do think that Air is a little too light to stick around. In a slightly lesser year I could see it, but I think this year is too strong for it to make it in.
I think Past Lives gets in due to the strength of its box office, due to A24, and the fact that it has to go to ten. But because I struggle to see it getting more than two (Picture and Original Screenplay) that concerns me a bit. Where else does it appear?
I was originally more bullish on Air because I thought it had an inside track. It looks like a good bet for nominations for Golden Globes (Comedy), SAG Ensemble, and a few guild showings. But now it just feels like yesterday's news.
Okri wrote
The Underknowns: I don't think The Color Purple needs to be that good to be in. It just needs to be a bright shiny object at the box office for a few weeks. The material has obviously done well with awards before (Pulitzer winning novel, Tony winning in both incarnations, Oscar nominated original film) and financial success (different era of course, but the original film was a top five hit of the year and the stage show also made back it's budget). I like the idea of The Iron Claw, I like Durkin (of the Borderline trio, he's the one most likely to become an Oscar nominee), but I think it can easily get crowded out.
I think you make a good point that generally speaking it's done well before so why not again? But I'm not confident that it's going to actually be the bright shiny object at the box office for a few weeks. That said, its box office competition doesn't look very quality: Aquaman and The Last Kingdom, The Boys in the Boat, Migration, and The Iron Claw. Speaking of which, if there's a sleeper waiting out there it might be that. It's just hard to know much about it because it hasn't been seen yet.
Magilla, getting Million Dollar Baby vibes from it?
Okri wrote
The Festival Darlings: I think what Sabin says about American Fiction (the strikes against it might be from a different era) also could be applied to All of Us Strangers. I really like the chances for both. I keep hearing how emotionally affecting All of Us Strangers is. I'll echo Sabin in that I think American Fiction in skewering the publishing industry allows the film industry a little bit of distance while also being recognizable.
I also think that with the strike going on, a film that is at least partially about frustration with a media establishment (American Fiction) might be in vogue.
Okri wrote
So, to pick five more: All of us Strangers, American Fiction, The Color Purple, Maestro, Past Lives
The only question I have is whether The Zone of Interest or (especially) The Iron Claw replaces one of them.