SAG Winners

[Big Magilla]

Nice speeches by Brian Cox and Michael Keaton on the TV side.

Other than Jessica Chastain's deserved win, the film awards were a triumph for mediocrity.

I say it every year. A SAG win for ensemble is not a prediction of the Oscar win for Best Picture. Sometimes Oscar agrees, but CODA is so sappy that I can't believe the majority of Oscar voters will want to go there. Either The Power of the Dog wins with the most votes on the first count or it wins on the second or third or loses to something that will be on everyone's ballot, which is more likely to be Belfast than anything else.

Will Smith did give a good acceptance speech which may carry him over to an Oscar, but I still think Cumberbatch and Garfield can pull an upset.

I fell asleep watching the red-carpet arrivals on E! and missed the first twenty-five minutes of the show so I didn't see either Troy Kotsur or Ariana DeBose's speeches. Kodi Smit-McPhee clearly gave the best performance of the supporting actor nominees but there is a longstanding prejudice against young actors that very few overcome so a loss for him would not be unexpected. However, if that happens, I hope it's Ciaran Hinds who wins.

Ariana DeBose's continued triumph through awards season I just don't get. She brings nothing special to a well-known role. The other four nominees and at least as many non-nominees this year would have been better choices to win it all.

[Mister Tee]

Well, these are our winners... and our acting frontrunners for the Academy Awards.

Why would you say that -- especially a year after SAG whiffed on both lead prizes? Two of the four here differ from the only other TV awards given out so far, and it's very likely BAFTA will dissent even further. We have races! That's the headline I take away.

To briefly address TV: VERY happy for Michael Keaton, who was excellent in Dopesick. I thought for a moment his speech was over-staying his welcome, but he sure had a wow finish. Otherwise...the Emmy winners carry over in comedy, and Netflix (likely aided by multiple nominees from Succession and The Morning Show) prove again SAG is fertile ground for them.

Speaking of over-staying...Man, Kotsur REALLY went on. (It's a bad sign when say "Finally" twice.) I love that his win opened up the category. I think either Smit-McPhee or Hinds will win BAFTA, and the Oscar is anyone's guess.

DeBose is, as I said in the other thread, this year's "we're giving it to you, no discussion." A friend of mine commented it was odd she didn't cite Rita Moreno in her speech.

I let out a whoop when Chastain won. Thank god Kidman couldn't narrative her way to a numbing sweep. As we know, someone else is winning BAFTA, and who care who the Broadcasters pick? The Oscar race is wide open.

So, industry-wide love for Will Smith proved stronger than the intense enthusiasm for Garfield. A lot of people at Awards Worthy are shouting Game Over, but that's only the case if Smith repeats at BAFTA. If, instead (as I'd guess), Cumberbatch wins there, we'll officially have three acting races alive going into Oscar night. When was the last time we had that? 2002?

Smith, by the way, gave a nicely graceful speech, and I couldn't be unhappy he won.

My instinct was unhappily correct, that CODA was just the sort of thing actors would drool over. (Not that any other nominee was deeply deserving. Honest to god, I'd probably have had to vote for Belfast, and we know I'm lukewarm on that.) Matlin's speech was touching and likable.

Onward.

[OscarGuy]

I don't think CODA wins Best Picture. SAG has only matched Best Picture 50% of the time ever. Hell, 3 of the last 5 years, the Best Picture winner wasn't even nominated for Best Cast. In 10 years, SAG has matched 5 times, and only one of those times was in the last 5 years.

[Reza]

Good God, does this mean CODA is winning Best Picture at the Oscars?

[Sabin]

Well, these are our winners... and our acting frontrunners for the Academy Awards.

[Sabin]

Best Ensemble Cast: CODA
Best Male Lead: Will Smith, King Richard
Best Female Lead: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Supporting Male: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Supporting Female: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Stunt Ensemble: No Time to Die