Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

ME IN 2018: Glenn Close is done. Black Panther is in.
ME IN 2016: I'm feeling pretty good about Hillary's chances.

I keep saying I'm done with predictions. Do I stop? No.

The first-time directors list:

BO BURNHAM, Eighth Grade

BRADLEY COOPER, A Star is Born

CARLOS LÓPEZ ESTRADA, Blindspotting

MATTHEW HEINEMAN, A Private War

BOOTS RILEY, Sorry to Bother You


And documentaries:

Morgan Neville, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Ramell Ross, Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi & Jimmy Chan, Free Solo

Tim Wardle, Three Identical Strangers

Betsy West & Julie Cohen, RBG

OscarGuy wrote:I think If Beale Street Could Talk is done for at the Oscars. With PGA, DGA, and ASC all ignoring the film over work that was easily inferior, I have no hope that If Beale Street overcomes all this.

I don't know about that. Just last year, Phantom Thread proved it's possible to overcome it.

FilmFan720 wrote:Except the WGA in recent years has been very friendly to comic book movies, and adapted screenplay was light this year on the WGA ballot.

I grant the first part -- presumably all those WGA members who WRITE comic book scripts support the most-praised examples of their genre. But the writers could have gone for First Man or Widows, highly praised films in more awards-friendly genres. (Yes, financial disappointments, but the writers have historically been less influenced by that than the rest of the Academy.)

I think If Beale Street Could Talk is done for at the Oscars. With PGA, DGA, and ASC all ignoring the film over work that was easily inferior, I have no hope that If Beale Street overcomes all this. There are new minority voters in the Academy, but I think BlacKkKlansman will get most of their support and Roma will get the rest.

Except the WGA in recent years has been very friendly to comic book movies, and adapted screenplay was light this year on the WGA ballot.

So, Cuaron and Cooper as the baseline; Spike as the Mama Bear (not too hot, not too cold, just right); and Farrelly and McKay to piss people off, though seemingly from different directions.

It might just be a 3-of-5 rather than 4-of-5 carryover to the directors' branch, with Lanthimos and Jenkins knocking off Farrelly/McKay. But if only one of them make it, you'd think Lanthimos, with a generally stronger film, would come first. Unless Jenkins plays the "been nominated before" card, a plus in the category.

I acknowledge I mis-called Mad Max: Fury Road three years ago, but the Black Panther thing has still always seemed a bridge too far for Oscar voters, so this doesn't shock me. It is strange that the writers, of all branches, are one of the Guilds that came through for it.

The Original BJ wrote:Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

Green Book wins Best Picture and Cuaron wins Best Director at the Oscars.

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

Same as the Globe list. Lanthimos and Jenkins now feel like they’re both fighting for Oscar’s lone director-type slot. And Black Panther’s chances of actually winning Best Picture now seem nil.