Re: Three Weeks from Today
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:44 pm
I don't strongly disagree with the gist of your post, Magilla, though I must say that talk of "fifth slots" this early seems strange to me, especially when so many of these movies seem to have not insignificant Oscar liabilities. Let me put it this way -- I agree that the majority of the films you cite will make up the Best Picture list, but I don't think I'd put money on anyone as a certain Best Director nominee yet, because I find it hard to discern which ones will eventually make up the top echelon of the main race.
We're also hindered -- pleasingly so -- by the fact that the remaining unseen films (The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant) are from directors who have all had recent Oscar successes, so if they deliver, they could all become very big deals awards-wise. Of course, if you flash back a few years, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and Nine all fit that profile as well, and all three of them cratered, so who knows if one or more of these films will disappoint.
The names you list as your Best Actor predictions seem like the most commonly cited, but a lot of them aren't super strong contenders. I think people may be underestimating Tom Hanks, whose film has done pretty solid box office, and who many feel missed out two years ago. I'm also keeping my eye out for a respected vet like Michael Caine, and I think there's a good chance some of the critics prizes go to some real wild card candidates in this category.
From this vantage point, I have a tough time seeing Saoirse Ronan as the Best Actress winner, simply because her part is so recessive. I do agree with you that Brooklyn will likely be a movie Oscar voters respond to, but Ronan's part just isn't as dominant as some of her competitors, and I think that will at least be a factor in how competitive she can be.
A lot of folks are suggesting that Keaton is his category's frontrunner due to the make-up factor (hey, it worked for Judi Dench for much less!), but he, too, doesn't have so dominant a role that you immediately think, THAT'S the Oscar winner. Of course, I don't really see anyone becoming this year's J.K. Simmons or Jared Leto, so perhaps the combo of strong work this year and last will be enough to carry him to the win.
Okay, my big dissent, for which I'm fully prepared to eat crow if I'm wrong: I'm not sure the Supporting Actress race is going to settle as easily into Mara vs. Vikander the way that everyone seems to think it will, for a whole host of reasons. For starters, I don't think the category fraud is just going to go off without any kind of wrench -- even if Oscar ultimately buys it, I think the critics are going to be more likely to find actual supporting actresses to honor, thereby allowing at least some of those women to gain traction. Plus, we've already seen one organization cite Vikander as lead, and my hunch is that Mara could contend for Best Actress prizes with groups that don't care as much about Oscar "predicting" as well, which I think would prevent any consensus narrative from forming early on in the supporting race. (I haven't seen Vikander yet, but to call Mara anything other than a lead is mental institution-level insanity.) And on top of all that, there are the films. I think Carol will do well enough at the nomination stage, but having now seen it, I'm a bit cautious about its ability to win any major Oscars -- it's a bit more emotionally distant than Oscar usually likes. As for The Danish Girl, it has to contend with those mediocre reviews, which I hardly think will be a deal-breaker given Vikander's personal acclaim, but are never a plus in an acting candidate's column. It may well be that one of these women do end up the winner, but I could see quite a bit happening between now and the Oscars to upset this preordained narrative.
We're also hindered -- pleasingly so -- by the fact that the remaining unseen films (The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant) are from directors who have all had recent Oscar successes, so if they deliver, they could all become very big deals awards-wise. Of course, if you flash back a few years, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and Nine all fit that profile as well, and all three of them cratered, so who knows if one or more of these films will disappoint.
The names you list as your Best Actor predictions seem like the most commonly cited, but a lot of them aren't super strong contenders. I think people may be underestimating Tom Hanks, whose film has done pretty solid box office, and who many feel missed out two years ago. I'm also keeping my eye out for a respected vet like Michael Caine, and I think there's a good chance some of the critics prizes go to some real wild card candidates in this category.
From this vantage point, I have a tough time seeing Saoirse Ronan as the Best Actress winner, simply because her part is so recessive. I do agree with you that Brooklyn will likely be a movie Oscar voters respond to, but Ronan's part just isn't as dominant as some of her competitors, and I think that will at least be a factor in how competitive she can be.
A lot of folks are suggesting that Keaton is his category's frontrunner due to the make-up factor (hey, it worked for Judi Dench for much less!), but he, too, doesn't have so dominant a role that you immediately think, THAT'S the Oscar winner. Of course, I don't really see anyone becoming this year's J.K. Simmons or Jared Leto, so perhaps the combo of strong work this year and last will be enough to carry him to the win.
Okay, my big dissent, for which I'm fully prepared to eat crow if I'm wrong: I'm not sure the Supporting Actress race is going to settle as easily into Mara vs. Vikander the way that everyone seems to think it will, for a whole host of reasons. For starters, I don't think the category fraud is just going to go off without any kind of wrench -- even if Oscar ultimately buys it, I think the critics are going to be more likely to find actual supporting actresses to honor, thereby allowing at least some of those women to gain traction. Plus, we've already seen one organization cite Vikander as lead, and my hunch is that Mara could contend for Best Actress prizes with groups that don't care as much about Oscar "predicting" as well, which I think would prevent any consensus narrative from forming early on in the supporting race. (I haven't seen Vikander yet, but to call Mara anything other than a lead is mental institution-level insanity.) And on top of all that, there are the films. I think Carol will do well enough at the nomination stage, but having now seen it, I'm a bit cautious about its ability to win any major Oscars -- it's a bit more emotionally distant than Oscar usually likes. As for The Danish Girl, it has to contend with those mediocre reviews, which I hardly think will be a deal-breaker given Vikander's personal acclaim, but are never a plus in an acting candidate's column. It may well be that one of these women do end up the winner, but I could see quite a bit happening between now and the Oscars to upset this preordained narrative.