New Developments III

[OscarGuy]

Lake seems to have fallen out of favor with Trump. She spent a week there sucking up to him and we haven't seen him speak favorably of her again. He will pick a crazy woman, but I don't think Lake will be that woman. It's more likely to be someone like Elise Stefanik or Marsha Blackburn... foot soldiers who aren't too crazy.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
I think the field is split between running against Trump (DeSantis, Christie, Pence, etc) and running as Trump's running mate (Haley most of all). I suspect he'll go for someone more obviously insane for his VP pick, like Kari Lake.

I think Christie and Pence are running against Trump, I think Ramaswamay is running for his VP, and there are a couple that are straddling the line of supporting Trumpism but lightly tone-policing him (DeSantis, Haley).

Okri wrote
I meant to thank everyone for their comments about Vivek Ramaswamay earlier. I've heard the comparison to Yang before and obviously there's an appetite for someone just completely outside the main apparatus. But honestly, I had mentally grouped him in with someone like Ben Shapiro who just decided to run as opposed to a potential candidate.

Beyond that, though, I don't really understand why any Republican is running as not-Trump when there are a half dozen of them (or more). Is it only to be his VP? I can't imagine him selecting anyone who was on that stage. Especially since none of them are willing to actually go against him in any real way.

To be fair, Ramaswamay decided to run only after a podcast deal with the Daily Wire fell through. Again: a cynical and disingenuous bullshit artist.

To your second point, I mean, a lot of them might be running in the hopes that Trump won't be able to run and they'll just be able to position themselves as an alternative. Either way, they're in an identical bind to their 2016 situation where they had far too many people in the race for a "not-Trump" to consolidate around any of them. In retrospect, it seems insane to think that Marco Rubio or John Kasich could have beaten him, but a Trump Presidency is not a fixed point in time. The Republican Party just never had a main alternative to Trump that was palatable. This go-around, they do, it's Ron DeSantis, but he's just as right-wing. The description of him was "Trump's policies without Trump's personality." Well, DeSantis' personality might be worse.

In case anyone has forgotten, this was Ron DeSantis' gubernatorial ad in 2018. Try to watch it without vomiting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1YP_zZJFXs

I honestly don't see what the Republican Party does moving forward. For years, their base has been told they have to stomach voting for an establishment candidate if they want to win. Now that they've gotten a taste of a candidate like Trump, I don't see how/why they'll go back. They've always been more aligned with conservative rhetoric than conservative policy anyway. It's really scary.

[dws1982]

Beyond that, though, I don't really understand why any Republican is running as not-Trump when there are a half dozen of them (or more). Is it only to be his VP? I can't imagine him selecting anyone who was on that stage. Especially since none of them are willing to actually go against him in any real way.

I think the field is split between running against Trump (DeSantis, Christie, Pence, etc) and running as Trump's running mate (Haley most of all). I suspect he'll go for someone more obviously insane for his VP pick, like Kari Lake.

[Okri]

I meant to thank everyone for their comments about Vivek Ramaswamay earlier. I've heard the comparison to Yang before and obviously there's an appetite for someone just completely outside the main apparatus. But honestly, I had mentally grouped him in with someone like Ben Shapiro who just decided to run as opposed to a potential candidate.

Beyond that, though, I don't really understand why any Republican is running as not-Trump when there are a half dozen of them (or more). Is it only to be his VP? I can't imagine him selecting anyone who was on that stage. Especially since none of them are willing to actually go against him in any real way.

[Sabin]

Me every time Vivek Ramaswamay is on TV: "Get him."

[Sabin]

I don't know if calling this economy Bidenomics is good politics, but if the economy goes under he's fucked anyway so go ballsy or go home. I bring this up because of how much he's going out there on a limb for student debt relief. It's really surprising. It's polarizing but I like how he's not afraid to make worthy opponents. He's calling out MAGA. He's calling out the Supreme Court. His agenda hasn't been FDR big but he's definitely FDR-ish (and Truman-ish) in that regard. In 2023, I don't know if that's good politics or not but I'm enjoying it.

Side note: I hear "progressives" talk about how Democrats should be like FDR. "Look how many times he got elected!" FDR wouldn't be able to do that today in the age of social media. He wouldn't be able to hold together a party of southern segregationists and African-Americans today and give the appearance of catering to both. We'd be talking about President Alf Landon today. If not President Charles Lindbergh.

[Sabin]

Watched the Republican debate. So many incredible lies and conspiracies. Trash can abortions. Soros-funded prosecutors. Anti-trans. It's all mainstream in this party now.

At first, I thought the person who gained the most was Ramaswamay. He pulled a Trump move by defining his debate with unserious, extreme opinions, which made his opponents look like tut-tutting politicians who aren't on your side. But unlike in 2016, it wasn't as effective because he just doesn't have Trump's swagger or normie appeal, and also his opponents on the stage are prepared this time. But increasingly, I think he did himself some real harm with some of his takes, like saying climate change is a hoax or calling for the elimination of the FBI. I think that's too far out there for the general. Instead, I'll say Pence. He's spent the bulk of the race as an afterthought but not tonight. I've always thought that he was an underrated debate presence. He had adult-in-the-room energy. If you're an anti-Trump Republican, that's appealing. I think Haley was generally pretty awkward but she had some good responses (especially her response on abortion) that are going to get her some traction.

Who lost the most? I thought Christie was disappointing. He's too long-winded in his responses, too prosecutorial. And even though I think he has a good case for electing him (he's the one who upset a blue incumbent), I think he's from a different time. Like, who thinks "I'll attack Trump, but don't worry I'll get them back by attacking the teacher's union." The best thing you can say about DeSantis is he survived. It's like he was the candidate in a bubble. He didn't answer any questions. Nobody attacked him. He got applause for his robotic canned responses. It sounded like there were plants in the audience. And he spouted insane lies like the multiple abortion attempts story. The best thing about Ron DeSantis is that if he somehow ends up as the nominee, Biden will beat him.

This party is awful.

EDIT: I think another big winner is the Democratic Party. This shit is out of step with the mainstream. They've just reached the point where they can't win the primary without losing the general completely. I bet by 2028, the Republican primary will be all manosphere influencers.

[dws1982]

Michael Burry just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/investin ... index.html

"Michael Burry has predicted 12 of the last 2 crashes."
--Someone on Twitter

[Sabin]

Michael Burry just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/investin ... index.html

I'm going to be honest. I don't understand the economy. At all. I remember thinking during 2020, "Oh, well, on the bright side, we were due for a recession and this will just get it out of the way." Which, no, (apparently) obviously, no (apparently). But my sense of the economy is it's kinda weird right now. On the other hand, I'm struggling to think of a time in my adult life where one side claimed the economy was good and the other side didn't claim it was shit aside from The Great Recession.

[Mister Tee]

dws1982 wrote
I mainly mean that a large part of his personality has been based on things like medical/vaccine conspiracy theories, which a large segment of the MAGA crowd is super into, and on trying to establish himself as a populist, anti-establishment outsider. (Although he's

Agreed. I can only assume the last part of your sentence was "a Kennedy" or something along those lines. I think that doesn't hurt him because the Kennedys are largely figures from the past at this point, even though one of their own just ran for Senate a few years ago. There's also an anti-establishment quality that's been baked into their mythology, whether rightly or wrongly. So much so that a good number of MAGA people believe JFK, Jr. is alive and well, and getting ready to be Donald Trump's running mate. It's a fun time.

Polling has shown there are some who actually think this RFK Jr. is his father. Suggesting worries about the American educational system are well-founded.

I've seen it said that Ramaswamay is the Andrew Yang of 2024: the new shiny toy, most appealing to those who think the nuts and bolts of politics (positions, plans) are boring and unimportant, that saying you're going to get everybody together and "solve problems" (while looking young and hip) is the right approach. There'll always be some segment of the electorate looking for politics without politics.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
I mainly mean that a large part of his personality has been based on things like medical/vaccine conspiracy theories, which a large segment of the MAGA crowd is super into, and on trying to establish himself as a populist, anti-establishment outsider. (Although he's

Agreed. I can only assume the last part of your sentence was "a Kennedy" or something along those lines. I think that doesn't hurt him because the Kennedys are largely figures from the past at this point, even though one of their own just ran for Senate a few years ago. There's also an anti-establishment quality that's been baked into their mythology, whether rightly or wrongly. So much so that a good number of MAGA people believe JFK, Jr. is alive and well, and getting ready to be Donald Trump's running mate. It's a fun time.

[dws1982]

I mainly mean that a large part of his personality has been based on things like medical/vaccine conspiracy theories, which a large segment of the MAGA crowd is super into, and on trying to establish himself as a populist, anti-establishment outsider. (Although he's not, as a Kennedy.)

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
There are always flash-in-the-pan primary candidates who get a popularity surge for a month or two, and he is the one right now, just like Robert Kennedy Jr has been the Democrat one (in his case largely due to being one of the first MAGA Democrats).

Do you mean MAGA in that he is largely Trump-aligned?

[dws1982]

I think that one thing in Ramaswamay's favor is that he came in kind of unknown, at least to the masses; didn't come in with years of Trump associations like Pence or Haley. Doesn't have the issue of having taken a stance against Trump like Will Hurd or Christie (again) Pence. Hasn't built his whole public persona on being an asshole like Ron DeSantis. Being young helps, because the perception is that presidential candidates are a thousand years old, even though he's not that much younger than Will Hurd or Ron DeSantis. (But DeSantis may as well be up there with Trump and Biden on age for all the youth he exudes; there is no way that man is my sister's age.) And like Sabin says, he is a bullshit artist, talking a good game. There are always flash-in-the-pan primary candidates who get a popularity surge for a month or two, and he is the one right now, just like Robert Kennedy Jr has been the Democrat one (in his case largely due to being one of the first MAGA Democrats).

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Sorry, that was poorly articulated. I think he's running third. I just have no idea how he managed to move away from the pack

Oh, I will absolutely tell you how it happened. I'll take any opportunity to talk about that bitch lol. I've been aware of Vivek Ramaswamay for a few years now. I have a friend who is (sadly) obsessed with his shit. I read his book, Woke, Inc. It's crap. He talks like a populist but he's the farthest thing from it.

I attribute Ramaswamay's rise to the fact that he's a very successful bullshit artist. I'd say more than anyone else on the Republican side, there's an emotional resonance to his campaign. He talks a lot about unity, national purpose, and a forward-looking vision, but out of the other side of his mouth, he speaks very derisively and divisively. His opening campaign ad framed "the cults of climate change, wokeism, and transgenders" as symptoms of a national rot. To say nothing of his "Raise the voting age" bullshit. And he does it all with a "I want to sell you a leadership seminar" tone of voice and smile. He has zero political experience which is now a good thing for Republicans. He's an entrepreneur who built a name for himself by shitting on DEI, ESG, and WEF, so he has bona fides. And just like all Republicans, he has zero systemic critiques beyond "These people are bad, put us in charge" although I guess you could make the argument that he has a Bircher-like fixation on social contagion. But most importantly, he's done an effective job at carving out a pretty smart lane with MAGA by claiming that the 2020 election was "in effect" stolen because the media suppressed the Hunter Biden story which would've turned the election (that's enough for them). This allows him to take a "strong position" (he'll pardon Trump if he's elected-- ha!) while also not appearing insane. Honestly, when you step back and look at it, it's almost impressive how two-faced it is. And he's everywhere!

The end result is that whether you're MAGA or moderate, you'll come away thinking that he has something to offer you and considering how polarized the "Hang Mike Pence" Republican party currently is, I wouldn't be surprised if Ramaswamay is literally every Republican's second or third choice at this point. I think he's only going to rise in the debates. The other candidates are largely going to say the same things. He's just figured out how to say them differently.