Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

OscarGuy wrote:When this is all over, people will think we overreacted because things weren't nearly as bad as they feared. But it was precisely BECAUSE we reacted as we did that it wasn't nearly as bad as they feared. Never presume that a positive result meant there wouldn't have been a negative result otherwise.

This is a golden paragraph...

Sonic Youth wrote:

I think the number is lowball, but not ridiculously so. I'd guess more around 80-90 thousand by summer's end, which is more optimistic than the half-a-million I was thinking about a month ago.

And I'm talking about projected mass deaths like they were box office predictions. Quite a new normal we've got here.

We're going to be Sweden after all. Revising my prediction to quarter-of-a-million.

After watching the riots and protests going on, I'm changing my prediction to one million dead. And the sky's the limit.

To me, it doesn't matter if you're black or white, male or female, Christian or Muslim or Jew, Hindu or Buddhist or atheist. It doesn't matter if you are left wing or right wing, Democrat or Republican. In my eyes, you are all superspreaders.

From The New York Times:

87,000 Missing Deaths (Worldwide)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

By the way, for those who don't subscribe to the New York Times they are offering free access to COVID-19 related articles.

Mister Tee wrote:

Sonic Youth wrote:Nate Silver says the pneumonia theory is BS.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9582075906

I dunno...

Nate has been really, really resistant to belief that the epidemic is that bad. If this were his first skeptical post, I'd be more inclined to give him credence here, but he's been on the downplay-it side most of the way -- and I believe (not 100% certain) he was in the "it's going to top out at 60,000" crowd at the point when it was obvious it was not.

Andy Slavitt's credentials in this area (epidemiology) are of a significant magnitude greater than Nate's, and I'll stick to his view until he revises it.

Well, that's fine but this looks like a data issue, not an epidemiology issue. And data is Nate's wheelhouse. And Slavitt's only one person regardless of credentials. I don't see anyone else claiming this, and the media doesn't seem to be running with it either.

When this is all over, people will think we overreacted because things weren't nearly as bad as they feared. But it was precisely BECAUSE we reacted as we did that it wasn't nearly as bad as they feared. Never presume that a positive result meant there wouldn't have been a negative result otherwise.

Mister Tee wrote:

Sonic Youth wrote:Nate Silver says the pneumonia theory is BS.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9582075906

I dunno...

Nate has been really, really resistant to belief that the epidemic is that bad. If this were his first skeptical post, I'd be more inclined to give him credence here, but he's been on the downplay-it side most of the way -- and I believe (not 100% certain) he was in the "it's going to top out at 60,000" crowd at the point when it was obvious it was not.

Andy Slavitt's credentials in this area (epidemiology) are of a significant magnitude greater than Nate's, and I'll stick to his view until he revises it.

ON EDIT: Another weird thing about Florida: virtually every day, their New Deaths number seems to fall somewhere between 40 and 50, which seems...statistically unlikely. I vaguely remember Daily Kos had a pollster which was continually getting results that were unlikely -- I'm thinking it was that all their numbers were even, never odd; something like that. This led them to conclude the numbers were being cooked up, not honestly surveyed, and they fired the pollster.

In Portugal the official number of deaths per day during the last two weeks are between 14 and 16 every single day. The average age of dead people is 81.

Two months ago I was all for #stayhome. Frankly, as of today, I’m beginning to think this a monumental hoax. GDP in my country will fall 8% this year, meaning 18 billion USD. The highest number of patients we had over here under ICU was 160. Government stated that without any confinement measures the number would be 3 times higher, meaning around 500 people tops at the same time. 18 billion USD, 35% unemployment growth in just one month... for a disease with an average death age of 81 and death rate of 0,1%. For me, just non sensical.

Sonic Youth wrote:Nate Silver says the pneumonia theory is BS.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9582075906

I dunno...

Nate has been really, really resistant to belief that the epidemic is that bad. If this were his first skeptical post, I'd be more inclined to give him credence here, but he's been on the downplay-it side most of the way -- and I believe (not 100% certain) he was in the "it's going to top out at 60,000" crowd at the point when it was obvious it was not.

Andy Slavitt's credentials in this area (epidemiology) are of a significant magnitude greater than Nate's, and I'll stick to his view until he revises it.

ON EDIT: Another weird thing about Florida: virtually every day, their New Deaths number seems to fall somewhere between 40 and 50, which seems...statistically unlikely. I vaguely remember Daily Kos had a pollster which was continually getting results that were unlikely -- I'm thinking it was that all their numbers were even, never odd; something like that. This led them to conclude the numbers were being cooked up, not honestly surveyed, and they fired the pollster.

Nate Silver says the pneumonia theory is BS.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9582075906

I dunno...

Mister Tee wrote:
Oh, and numbers are emerging from FL, TX and GA -- three states with, quelle coincidence, GOP governors -- that show modestly low COVID deaths, but unbelievably high "pneumonia" deaths.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1266213763604152321

This is a tactic Holocaust deniers use, btw, as "proof" that the number of victims is over-inflated for propaganda purposes. For example, "Anne Frank was not a Holocaust victim because she died of typhoid fever. Who's to say she wouldn't have died of typhoid fever anyway? Epidemics were common back then."

So, if Texas, Florida and Georgia are indeed fucking around with the numbers, all I can say is "The company you keep..."

So many countries are under reporting deaths due to so many reasons.

a) Overwhelmed and simply can't cope with the numbers;

b) Overwhelmed and don't have the resources to test people who have passed away so are reporting an existing condition as the reason for death;

c) Differing methods for counting deaths (some countries are not including people who passed away at home or in a care facility);

d) Deliberate under reporting (some states in the U.S. by the sounds of things, Russia?, Iran?, Brazil?, Mexico?, China?)

The closer figures will become more evident as time moves forward and death rates for each month of every country in 2020 can be compared with the last 5 years. This will provide a more accurate picture.

It has only come to light this week but due to during Australia's devastating bushfires in November/December 2019 450 more people died than usual and can be linked to the much diminished air quality during that period. Ironically during the COVID outbreak Australia's death rate declined which probably had to do with the lockdown measures which included not leaving ones home except for very specific reasons which resulted in less accidents. Plus people were and continue to stay away from hospitals and doctors which will have longterm health effects - most appointments are now done over the telephone and that is here to stay.

Okri wrote:Burn the fucking GOP the ground

A long-time online acquaintance tweeted, apropos this story, that, at this point, the median elected GOP official is a sociopath.

Oh, and numbers are emerging from FL, TX and GA -- three states with, quelle coincidence, GOP governors -- that show modestly low COVID deaths, but unbelievably high "pneumonia" deaths.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1266213763604152321

I first saw that back at a repertory cinema around 1992/93. I remember finding it a very gripping piece of cinema. I have it on Blu Ray so I should give it a spin. With so few 'new' movies available to see I'm watching far more film again along with lots of old favourite.

This whole pandemic reminds of a movie I saw on Turner Classic Movies a little while ago, The Andromeda Strain. It was about a group of scientists trying to determine the cause of a new deadly disease. It was made in the early 1970's, so the old-style-tabletop computers the scientists used definitely dated it. The thing I remember most was all the steps taken to steralize the scientists before they got into protective gear to analyze samples, including taking a special shower that charred off their outer epidermises.

I can understand that anyone who experienced even the mildest of flu/cold symptoms from January onwards would be thinking 'was it COVID-19?' not to mention something even more debilitating.

It's still unknown how long the antibodies will last and really only time will tell. My mother has asthma and the funny thing is that she never gets colds or the flu. It is truely bizarre. Her asthma was not well managed when she was younger but things turned around about 15 years ago with the guidance of a specialist who appears to know his stuff so to speak. Though my mother has numerous auto-immune disorders which is not that uncommon for females. Some researches speculate that auto-immune disorders may in fact be a benefit in relation to COVID-19 infection but clearly its way too early for any conclusions or solid evidence to be determined.

On a lighter note......

A good friend of mine (aged 73) came back from a three week trip to Thailand in early March and was desperate to get tested for COVID-19 despite having no symptoms except for an itchy eye (which I've since learned can be one of many many symptoms). Back then whilst we had relative widespread testing there was a shortage of test kits and one had to meet certain criteria to get tested. This friend first rang the COVID hotline that the Government had set up which apparently works by the caller pressing numbers as directed. Given he didn't meet the criteria by the numbers that he pressed his call was automatically terminated. He then went to his GP who didn't think he needed to be tested. He then fronted up to a local fever clinic and was turned away after waiting in line for more than hour because he didn't meet the criteria and was also warned by the male nurse that he should be hanging around here if he wasn't sick.

Two months later he still wants to get tested and now the Government is begging anybody with even the slightest cold symptom, even just a runny nose to get tested because they have millions of test kits, the country has been in lockdown for nearly two months, the Government wants to start up the economy again and won't until they basically eliminate the virus (they won't come out and say they want to eliminate the virus - they are using the term 'suppress the virus' which is fair enough because nobody can guarantee elimination). Anyway, we went to this friends house yesterday for lunch (a week ago the Government changed the rules for leaving your home and two adults can now visit a friend) and he was still desperate for a test and was asking us where he should go for one. Anyway, he is to coming to our house next week for a dinner party (along with one another friend who we haven't seen in two months due to the lockdown) so we are going to really encourage him. Apparently the swab in the nose is meant to be very unpleasant - I think I'd prefer to be sedated before that procedure thanks.

The testing is on an industrial scale in Australia at the moment and if it wasn't for a cluster in a nursing home and another in a meat packing factory we'd barely have any cases but lockdown remains with only minor restrictions removed in some states in the next couple of days. Even cats with flu symptoms are getting tested because it's another way for the Government to track and trace the source of infection which is really the only chance one has of controlling and limiting its spread.

Really, I'm so sick of all this COVID-19 stuff. I went through the sleepless nights worrying about it in early February and even now the first thing that comes into my mind every morning when I wake up is COVID-19 and its like a bad dream that won't go away. I know we are lucky in Australia because we have so far dodged a bullet so to speak but that is not going to last. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and suddenly pop, somewhere at some point in the future the virus will emerge.

And so many people's lives ruined - the economic wreckage of this will be the likes of that we have never seen before. Certainly puts life in general into perspective. I'm retaining as much normality as I can but things are never going back to what they were before.