Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[MovieWes]

'Tropic Thunder' Can't Storm Box Office; 'Clone Wars' Toon #2, 'Dark Knight' #3

So this is the weekend that finally knocks The Dark Knight out of No. 1 after 4 straight weeks. Studio sources tell me that very early Friday numbers show DreamWorks/Paramount's Tropic Thunder made $8.2M from 3,319 North American theaters. The Ben Stiller-Robert Downey Jr-Jack Black spoof of moviemaking with Tom Cruise in a cameo should total $26 million for this weekend and $37 million for the 5 days since it opened Wednesday. (But rival majors think the tallies will be less -- $22M-$23M for the weekend and $34.5M for the 5 days.) So the R-rated pic isn't "Tropic Tanker", but its negative cost of $135M is a definite damper on its dometic gross. The studio is hoping that the old maxim holds true: that any publicity is good publicity. On the down side, some vocal African-American actors (because of Downey in blackface) and mental disability advocates (because of the un-PC use of the term "retard") are pissed at the spoof. On the up side, critics are loving Ben Stiller's direction and script and story (with Justin Theroux). But Hollywood has wondered whether Tropic Thunder could break the curse that movies about movies don't do well at the box office.

In second place, LucasFilm/Warner Bros' animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars opened as predicted with $6.5 million Friday from 3,452 venues for what should be a $19.5M weekend. No. 3 was the Warner Bros' Batman mega-blockbuster with $5 million Friday from 3,519 dates and an expected $17M for the weekend. In 4th place, Regency/Fox's opener Mirrors eked out $3.7M Friday from 2,664 plays for what should be just a $10M weekend. And No. 5 went to Sony's holdover Pineapple Express dropped 60% for just $3.2M Friday in 3,072 runs and probably a $10M weekend. As for other films opening this weekend, it looks like The Weinstein Co/MGM's Woody Allen pic Vicky Cristina Barcelona did $1.4M from just 692 runs for what could be a $4.5M weekend in the Top 10. And Summit Entertainment's Fly Me To The Moon family fare toon playing in 3D at 452 theaters debuted to $650K and should have a $2M weekend. Fuller coverage Saturday.

[rolotomasi99]

But, if it does bomb, I will be so irritated when the Disabled groups chant they were victorious of giving the movie a shitty weekend. Several other movies have had similar protests that, because the movie was crappy and bombed, they took credit for its bombing.

well, they probably will brag, but they might want consider this:

--from imdb.com
Apparently the call for a boycott by organizations representing the mentally disabled was not responsible for the soft opening for Tropic Thunder. The Los Angeles Times reported today (Friday) that when online ticket seller Fandango asked its customers whether the boycott call made them less interested or more interested in seeing the movie, 77 percent responded "more interested."

[OscarGuy]

You know, the Olympics could be hurting it more than people imagine. I know my friends haven't wanted to see a movie in weeks and we're going to Tropic Thunder Sunday.

But, if it does bomb, I will be so irritated when the Disabled groups chant they were victorious of giving the movie a shitty weekend. Several other movies have had similar protests that, because the movie was crappy and bombed, they took credit for its bombing.

[Franz Ferdinand]

It might just be a poorly planned Wednesday opening that gives this a bad two days. There seemed to be too much hype for it to open to merely $11M: were a lot of people aware it was moved to Wednesday? Nevertheless, it doesn't look very good for Tropic Thunder right now.

[MovieWes]

Another bad day for Tropic Thunder...

Studio Lowering 'Tropic Thunder' B.O. Weekend Estimate To Mid-$30s Million

Very early Thursday numbers for Tropic Thunder's domestic box office are running around $4.5 million after its Wednesday opening take of $6.5 million in 3,319 theaters. And tonight DreamWorks/Paramount is starting to revise downward the weekend and 5-day forecasts for the R-rated movie-within-a-movie comedy from Ben Stiller. Currently, the studio is expecting Pineapple Express-like North American gross of low to mid $20sM for the Friday-Saturday-Sunday weekend (down from low $30sM) and mid $30sM for the 5 days (down from $40M). Just one problem: Sony claimed Pineapple Express' negative cost was $27M, while I'm told Tropic Thunder's budget ballooned to $110+M. Yikes! Opening Friday, the LucasFilm/Warner Bros' Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon has box office predictions ranging from $15M to low $20sM in 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it.

EDIT: Oh, and rolo, there's no way Tropic Thunder is going to reach $250 million now. $100 million seems to be the cap for this film (and that's best case scenario).



Edited By MovieWes on 1218813357

[Penelope]

You know, this really IS the Summer of Hell for me; not only are things in my personal life pretty much tragic, but not even popular culture can come to my rescue: the public is embracing to excessive degree a barely mediocre film and then there's the godawful Olympics. Waaaaahhhhh!

[rolotomasi99]

2008 top ten:
THE DARK KNIGHT -- $520 m
IRON MAN -- $320 m
KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $318 m
TROPIC THUNDER -- $250 m
HANCOCK -- $240 m
WALL-E -- $230 m
QUANTUM OF SOLACE -- $225 m
KUNG FU PANDA -- $220 m
MADAGASCAR -- $200 M
YES MAN -- $170 M

[MovieWes]

Well, we can all scratch Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince from our predictions. It's been moved to July 27, 2009.

Maybe Quantum of Solace can now be to the holiday movie season what The Dark Knight was for the summer.

[MovieWes]

I think you mean opening day, not opening weekend. :p

Wouldn't it be something if The Dark Knight won the weekend again? It's not impossible now. It made about half of what Tropic Thunder did yesterday and it's been out 27 days!



Edited By MovieWes on 1218745187

[rolotomasi99]

TROPIC THUNDER MADE $6.5 m its opening day. RETURN OF THE JEDI made $6.2 m on its opening day...back in 1983!
could TROPIC THUNDER rival SPEED RACER as the biggest bomb of the year?
$6.5 m for a wednesday opening, with absolutely no other films opening that day to compete with, is humiliating. THE SISTERHOOD OF THE TRAVELLING PANTS 2 made $5.7 m on its opening weekend. how could TROPIC THUNDER, a $150 m comedy with huge stars, great reviews, and lots of hype do only $1 m more?

you better believe the disability groups are going to take credit if this movie bombs, and honestly that explanation would be as good as any other.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1218807683

[MovieWes]

Whoa! Tropic Thunder bombed on Wednesday. Maybe it will do better during the weekend.

'Tropic Thunder's Low-Key $7M Opening; ...'Clone Wars', 'Mirror' Wkd Predictions

Reliable sources are telling me that very early numbers show the Wednesday opening for Ben Stiller's Tropic Thunder from DreamWorks/Paramount were just around $7 million from 3,319 North American theaters. (But another R-rated comedy, Sony's Pineapple Express, did $12.1M a week ago.) So what are its weekend prospects? Well, the studio fully anticipated the soft Wednesday opening and still believes Tropic Thunder can make $40 million in its first 5 days. "We will play to a little older audience than Pineapple Express, so we should do better on Saturday and get to about the same box office," one insider tells me. But one problem is that, unlike Judd Apatow movies, Tropic Thunder has underweighted wanna-see among the gals: there's only moderate interest among women under 25, and zilch interest among women under 25. Another worry is that this was a very expensive laugher, witha negative cost of $100+M. To get to $40M domestic gross, the studio is hoping that the old maxim holds true: that any publicity is good publicity. And this pic starring Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr has been hyped to the max. On the down side, some vocal African-American actors (because of Downey in blackface) and mental disability advocates (because of the un-PC use of the term "retard") are pissed at the spoof. On the up side, critics are loving Ben Stiller's direction and script and story (with Justin Theroux) and Tom Cruise's cameo. But all along Hollywood has wondered whether Tropic Thunder could break the curse that movies about movies don't do well at the box office, especially if they're stuffed like this one with the kind of insider jokes that would even go over the heads of The Grill's lunchtime regulars.

Here is what my box office gurus are predicting: low $30sM for Friday-Saturday-Sunday and low $40sM for the 5 days. As one of my experts analyzes, "Unfortunately, a few of the tracking services say that Tropic won’t be as high as Pineapple. They are saying about $35M for the 5 days. My gut is higher. I bet $42M for the 5 days. The reviews could not be better, the heat is huge, people love comedy. I think it will surprise."

As for this coming weekend's Friday opening movies, my box office gurus are all over the map on LucasFilm/Warner Bros' Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon for the geek in all of you (not me) with dominant tracking interest from males over 25, with predictions from a low of $15M to a high of low $20sM from 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it. Mirrors, the Regency/Fox horror film from the director of The Hills Have Eyes and starring Kiefer Sutherland, will probably open in the low teens with around $13M with balanced interest across 3 of the 4 quadrants. Male over 25 interest is the weakest but appears siphoned by Clone Wars and Tropic Thunder. And Woody Allen's sexy Vicky Cristina Barcelona from The Weinstein Co/MGM starring Scarlett Johansson, Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem, should collect about $3 million from its 692 runs. And Warner Bros' mega-blockbuster The Dark Knight? This 5th weekend in theaters will see it drop from No. 1 to #2 or possibly even #3...

[matthew]

Looks like TDK is tracking fairly closely to Shrek 2 (adjusted for inflation.) It will have to make more than 503 million (or thereabouts) to surpass it...

[rolotomasi99]

I think there's a very good chance that The Dark Knight will fall to third place next weekend. Tropic Thunder is good for a $50 million opening and I'd be willing to wager that Star Wars: The Clone Wars will open to over $30 million. The Dark Knight should bring in another $17 million next weekend.

after reading some early reviews showering TROPIC THUNDER with judd apatow level praise, i agree the film will pull in $50 m in just its opening weekend, plus $40 m from wednesday and thursday. add in another $10 m from monday, and it will pass $100 m in six days. AUSTIN POWERS 3 is the only live action comedy to pull off such a feat.
it will probably pull in close to $30 m in its second weeknd, and probably $25 m by its third. i think, when all is said and done, the film will end up with close to $300 m (MEET THE FOCKERS territory).

2008 top ten:
THE DARK KNIGHT -- $520 m
IRON MAN -- $320 m
KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $318 m
HALF-BLOOD PRINCE -- $310 m
TROPIC THUNDER -- $300 m
HANCOCK -- $240 m
WALL-E -- $230 m
KUNG FU PANDA -- $220 m
QUANTUM OF SOLACE -- $210 m
MADAGASCAR -- $200 M

[MovieWes]

I think there's a very good chance that The Dark Knight will fall to third place next weekend. Tropic Thunder is good for a $50 million opening and I'd be willing to wager that Star Wars: The Clone Wars will open to over $30 million. The Dark Knight should bring in another $17 million next weekend.

[Penelope]

Ha! You're forgetting The House Bunny! I'm already in line for that one.