Preliminary Oscar Predictions

[Mister Tee]

I suppose. I'm just waiting to hear anybody tell me that she's good in the movie. It seems to me that the main selling point of Maggie Smith getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress is that she's Maggie Smith in a role that could qualify for Best Supporting Actress.

...in a movie that made an unexpectedly big amount of money. That's the selling point. The fact that the movie is dreck and her role so poorly written even a pro's pro like her couldn't make it palatable is of no consequence when it comes to an Oscar nomination.

[Sabin]

I suppose. I'm just waiting to hear anybody tell me that she's good in the movie. It seems to me that the main selling point of Maggie Smith getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress is that she's Maggie Smith in a role that could qualify for Best Supporting Actress.

[Big Magilla]

The five front-runners have for some time been perceived to be Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt and Maggie Smith. Given SAG's lack of enthusiasm for Adams and The Master in general, I would think she is the most vulnerable with Judi Dench a possible beneficiary of The Master backlash.

Maggie Smith and Oscar

1963 - only member of cast of The V.I.P.s to win critical plaudits beside Oscar winner Margaret Rutherford - received a Most Promising Newcomer award from the Globes but failed ot register with Oscar voters
1965 - her critically acclaimed and BAFTA nominated performance in Young Cassidy should have gotten her an Oscar nod but she nominated instead for Olivier's filmed play production of Othello
1969 - won lead actress for The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie, but was also a major supporting actress threat for Oh! What a Lovely War
1972 - was nominated for Travels with My Aunt
1978 - won 2nd Oscar for California Suite on her fourth nomination
1986 - won Golden Globe and another Oscar nomination for A Room with a View
1987 - won fourth BAFTA for The Lonely Passion of Judith Hearne, arguably her greatest role, for which she failed to receive an Oscar nomination - she had previously won BAFTAs for Jean Brodie; A Private Function and A Room with a View
1993 - Nominated for BAFTA for The Secret Garden for which she was in the discussion for an Oscar nod that failed to come her way
1999 - Won fifth competitive BAFTA for Tea with Mussolini, failed to receive an Oscar nod
2001 - received her sixth Oscar nomination for Gosford Park
2012 - more popular than ever thanks to TV's Downton Abbey, she is again a candidate in both lead and supporting actress categories. Although a nomination in the lead category for Quartet would be a surprise, a nomination in support for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is expected.

[Sabin]

I'm having trouble coming up with a viable fifth choice for Best Supporting Actress. I know that simply by virtue of being viable contenders for Best Supporting Actress, Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, and Helen Hunt are pretty much in even though in a more competitive year that would not be the case for all of them. And the ones in the running for the final slot including Judi Dench, Ann Dowd, Nicole Kidman, Maggie Smith, Jacki Weaver, and da rest o' dem Les Miz dames would barely be brought up.

[rolotomasi99]

Here is the link to the 2012 reminder list, just in case you were curious.

http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawa ... rlist.html

[OscarGuy]

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel may not be a great film, it's passable. I think Tom Wilkinson is far more deserving of recognition from the cast than Smith who does seem to be playing a fairly bland racist-to-redeemed role.

[Reza]

THOUGHTS: I really don't want to watch The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Is Maggie Smith any good in this film? Really? I know that voters have seen and watched The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and that should be enough for Maggie Smith. But is she good?

Maggie Smith is not bad in the film but hers was the least interesting character amongst the bunch and I'm, frankly, surprised she is being mentioned for a nod. She doesn't bring anything new to the part. Quartet would be a more Academy friendly performance but the lead actress category already seems very full.

[Sabin]

You may be right. I'm not putting that much thought into it though, and I don't know if Academy voters will either.

Also, I changed a Best Picture prediction from The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel to The Master. There are enough people who will vote for The Master for #1 to secure it a spot.

[ITALIANO]

[
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
A Royal Affair
THOUGHTS: Argo? Worked for Milk.

Yes but Milk's subject - and, even more, the real-life character whose story it tells - must have meant something to a reasonable portion of this branch. Argo here would really surprise me.

[Sabin]

Best Picture
(if five)
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

(if six)
Les Miserables

(if seven)
Django Unchained

(if eight)
The Master

(if nine)
Moonrise Kingdom

(if ten)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
THOUGHTS: We'll have a better idea when the PGA nominations come out. But really there are six films vying for four spots. Unless they're vying for three. Or two. And it's not like Amour is going to play a factor in those Guild nominations. And it's not like we have any idea if Academy voters are actually going to enjoy a Wes Anderson movie.


Best Director
Ben Affleck - Argo
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
THOUGHTS: Paul Thomas Anderson, Michael Haneke, and Tom Hooper waiting in the wings. David O. Russell appears to be the shakiest. I remain slightly surprised by this love for Life of Pi.


Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
THOUGHTS: It looks like Hopkins isn't going to happen and Jackman doesn't appear to be garnering the raves some had thought, so this looks to be the safely predicted five. I see no reason to go out on a limb just yet.


Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuel Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
THOUGHTS: a week ago, we were all predicting these five. And now two of them have failed to grab Golden Globe nominations. Judi Dench, Maggie Smith, Naomi Watts, and Rachel Weisz racked in the plaudits but has anybody seen their movies? The same could be said about Riva and Cotillard. Except for Dench, let's play the game "Which of these films is less seen?" I'm sticking with my five for now.


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
THOUGHTS: a week ago, the nominees were going to be Arkin, DiCaprio, De Niro, Hoffman, and Jones. Now only Arkin, Hoffman, and Jones feel safe. Django Unchained should go over well with Academy voters but likely not quite as much so. The people I know who have seen Django seem to prefer Christoph Waltz over DiCaprio and say he's pretty overrated in the film. There's no reason why Javier Bardem should not get a nomination, and he fits with the Academy's hot streak for villains more than DiCaprio even. Why am I predicting Bardem over DiCaprio? Because I don't buy that SAG voters didn't watch their Django screeners.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
THOUGHTS: I really don't want to watch The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Is Maggie Smith any good in this film? Really? I know that voters have seen and watched The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and that should be enough for Maggie Smith. But is she good? This is a weak field. Adams, Field, Hathaway, and Hunt seem pretty solid. Ann Dowd would be an incredible inclusion, but will they watch the film?


Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thrity
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
THOUGHTS: no change.


Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Ben Lewin, The Sessions
Chris Terrio, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild
THOUGHTS: yeah, Nicholson isn't happening. No idea who is or isn't WGA eligible at this point but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that Beasts' will be ineligible for consideration. David Magee's screenplay for Life of Pi is the least deserving aspect of that film, and IMO the ones in the wings are Ol Park for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Ben Lewin for The Sessions. I'm guessing Ben Lewin, but in all fairness there's no reason on Earth for voters to be bothered by the structural problems in Life of Pi.


Best Film Editing
Chris Dickens, Les Miserables
William Goldenberg, Argo
William Goldenberg & Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
THOUGHTS: and this is going to be the final nail in Silver Linings Playbook's coffin. There is enough flashy editing in Life of Pi to secure it a nomination. Argo, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty are locks. It's going to come down to Les Miserables which will no doubt cross-cut enough to warrant its placement and SLP. Neither Sideways or Up in the Air could break into this category, nor longer shots Little Miss Sunshine or Juno. My favorite edited film of the year will go by the wayside.


Best Cinematography
Danny Cohen, Les Miserables
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
Greig Frasier, Zero Dark Thirty
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
THOUGHTS: Cohen's cinematography is getting some criticism. So did his work on The King's Speech. However it [apparently] looks enough like cinematography to get in. Grieg Frasier is having a great year and has been on the horizon for a little while. The Hurt Locker got in, but would it have gotten in over The Dark Knight Rises, The Master, Anna Karenina, or Django Unchained? For right now, I'm saying yes. Almost guaranteed that one of the worst nominees of the year will end up being Janusz Kaminski's work on Lincoln. Claudio Miranda seems like a sure bet to win because of a newly implemented "Every 3D Oscar Contender Will Win Cinematography" rule I didn't realize went into effect despite the incredibly lackluster rainstorm featuring the weirdly popular "Hey, let's open the shutter all the way up in the darkness of this soundstage!" thinking. I am personally hoping that Roger Deakins takes this one.


Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Miserables
THOUGHTS: I'm kind of thinking that there's a chance The Hobbit will get nothing. Like nothing! Moonrise Kingdom would be a lovely nominee.


Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
A Royal Affair
THOUGHTS: Argo? Worked for Milk.


Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Lincoln
THOUGHTS: yup.


Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
THOUGHTS: Argo and Life of Pi have very good chances here.


Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
THOUGHTS: no idea how much of Zero Dark Thirty is Sound FX-y, but I didn't predict The Hurt Locker would get in here and we saw how that happened. Life of Pi has a ridiculous amount of foley work with that tiger.

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
THOUGHTS: Hey! Life of Pi wins an Oscar!


Best Original Score
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty
Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
John Williams, Lincoln
THOUGHTS: Dario Marianella is my sixth choice. Argo seems to be favored by a lot of precursors which I understand about as much as Danna's bad score getting so much traction for Life of Pi. I hear Desplat's work in Zero Dark Thirty is amazing.


Best Original Song
"For You" ~ Act of Valor
"Learn Me Right" ~ Brave
"Midnight Run" ~ Lawless
"Skyfall" ~ Skyfall
"Suddenly" ~ Les Miserables
THOUGHTS: I have not seen Les Miserables but MAN! Wouldn't it be great if that song won? For that awesome title sequence?

[FilmFan720]

I don't have a lot of time this afternoon to say more, but one quick thought:

We keep talking about a picture/director split, and hit the problem of all these directors being recent winners who may not "deserve" a second or third Oscar yet...what about Ben Affleck? He is beloved in the industry, the academy used to live actor turned directors, his film is a hit and a Lincoln/Affleck split is starting to sound intriguing.

Of course, years of this board has Mister Tee in my head screaming don't bet on a split...so Argo for the win?

[flipp525]

I'm entertaining the possibility of no newcomers in either Actress or Supporting Actress, as we may be looking at lineups of (Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Mirren, Watts) and (Adams, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Kidman). There is no precedent for this at all in Supporting Actress - in fact there have only been two years with a lone first-time nominee (Jennifer Connelly in 2001 and Rachel Griffiths in 1998). The last time this happened in Best Actress was in 1994.

I hate that the character actresses for which this category was originally conceived will be, yet again, left in the dust, clutching their Independent Spirit nominations and critics' citations on Oscar nomination morning. I'd even go with the blatant category fraud, just to have Ann Dowd pop up.

[mlrg]

I'm entertaining the possibility of no newcomers in either Actress or Supporting Actress, as we may be looking at lineups of (Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Mirren, Watts) and (Adams, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Kidman). There is no precedent for this at all in Supporting Actress - in fact there have only been two years with a lone first-time nominee (Jennifer Connelly in 2001 and Rachel Griffiths in 1998). The last time this happened in Best Actress was in 1994.

Another note: of the 20 acting nominees today at SAG, only 2 were never nominated for Oscar. Of those who were, they have a total of 18 oscars between them !

[bizarre]

I'm entertaining the possibility of no newcomers in either Actress or Supporting Actress, as we may be looking at lineups of (Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, Mirren, Watts) and (Adams, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Kidman). There is no precedent for this at all in Supporting Actress - in fact there have only been two years with a lone first-time nominee (Jennifer Connelly in 2001 and Rachel Griffiths in 1998). The last time this happened in Best Actress was in 1994.

[bizarre]

ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Denzel Washington - Flight
(ALT - Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables)

Who's your Best Actor ALT? Phoenix? I assume the above is a typo.

Oh, oops - my ALT is Jackman, I meant to write Phoenix in the nominees.