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Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:04 pm
by Mister Tee
OscarGuy wrote:I don't buy the Bullock comparison. Bening has previous nominations. Obviously, they'll have other chances.
I wonder how many actresses over 50 see it that way.
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:13 pm
by OscarGuy
I don't buy the Bullock comparison. Bening has previous nominations. Obviously, they'll have other chances.
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:37 pm
by Mister Tee
O'Neil of course is not to be trusted on this issue, but there are other less hysterical voices also saying Bening is making some mark in the race. She no doubt gets the LA Chamber of Commerce votes, and word is she's quietly working the circuit the same way Cotillard did three years ago. Also, as Dave Karger has pointed out, the fact that Black Swan got a relatively paltry 5 nominations from AMPAS (as opposed to its double-digit haul at BAFTA and high-scoring elsewhere) means there's resistance to the film in Academy circles that didn't show up elsewhere.
Portman has to be clearly marked the favorite based on the past few weeks' results, but, like Italiano, I see at least a chance Bening will slip through on the basis of "we may never have a better chance to give it to her" -- a view that played in Bullock's favor last year.
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:15 am
by Big Magilla
I was being a bit facetious, but I do like that Bening picks and chooses her roles wisely, not that I begrudge Portman the opportunity to earn a fat paycheck while she can but her choice of projects is quite banal. Bette Davis she ain't.
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:49 am
by ITALIANO
Big Magilla wrote:and if you needed a nurse wouldn't you rather have a no-nonsense one like hers than Michelle Williams' erratic one take care of you?
Well, I wouldn't pick Hannibal Lecter as my psychiatrist, but this doesn't mean that Anthony Hopkins didn't deserve his Oscar.
But seriously, we all know that Natalie Portman is the favorite for the Best Actress Oscar. Still - and I said this weeks ago, not just now - Annette Bening is very, very close. and I wouldn't be too surprised by her - possible, not probable - surprise win. Black Swan is by far the best of the Best Picture nominees I've seen till now - I will see The Fighter and True Grit only later this week - but I'm not sure that especially the older Academy members liked it as much as I did. And from a group which selected Sandra Bullock last year, I can expect anything (there's also the possibility, slight I know, that The Kids Are All Right would be the fifth nominee under the old five-slots rules).
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 2:43 am
by Big Magilla
anonymous wrote:I believe Bening's character is a doctor.
Even better!
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:52 am
by anonymous1980
I believe Bening's character is a doctor.
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:29 am
by Big Magilla
What O'Neill said was that playing gay "helped". I don't find that comment as offensive as his constantly saying that Bening is overdue.
Bening is my choice to win, but not for either of those reasons. I simply thought her character was the most real of the women I saw portrayed on screen last year. She isn't particularly nice, in face she's downright mean at times, but her character is someone you're more apt to meet in real life than Natalie Portman's wacko ballerina or Jennifer Lawrence's fearless teenager, and if you needed a nurse wouldn't you rather have a no-nonsense one like hers than Michelle Williams' erratic one take care of you?
Edited By Big Magilla on 1297748019
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:37 pm
by Okri
Hoffman also played gay in Capote.
I also think it's utter bullshit to say playing gay gets you an oscar.
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:21 pm
by OscarGuy
I never considered Marion Cotillard an underdog. I was fairly certain she would win.
and I think it's a rather ludicrous to say that playing gay is what led to Sean Penn and Tom Hanks getting Oscars. They both played incredibly sympathetic characters who died in the end of their films. If playing gay was a reason for someone to win an Oscar, wouldn't both Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal be Oscar winners? And wouldn't Julianne Moore be a nominee. It's a specious argument.
And Tom O'Neil saying he's flabbergasted doesn't exactly hold water with me. He's been an ardent Bening supporter for some time and has gone out of his way to make her a player, so I take everything he says with a salt lick.
And how has this voter picked in other categories in past years? Highlighting only four instances of surprise wins doesn't tell us a lot. Where was he on the Shakespeare in Love bandwagon? What about Roman Polanski? How did he fare with the likes of Marisa Tomei or Anna Paquin?
Highlighting only four instances of clear thinking does not a trend make.
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 10:13 pm
by Big Magilla
To be fair, O'Neil did say he was flabbergasted.
Here's his 2/11 comment:
Last night I was flabbergasted when an Academy member told me who he's picking for lead actress: Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right"). He's not just any voter. He's a member of the producers' branch who almost always goes with the winner. He has backed all of the underdogs who ended up winning in recent years -– "Crash," Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton -– so, at this point, I've learned to take his ballot very seriously when he tattles ahead of time. But, come on! Could he possibly be right again when most pundits say Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") will prevail?
Well, not all pundits are picking Portman. Some savvy naysayers include Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). And Bening does have some big advantages. She plays gay, which helped Sean Penn ("Milk") and Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia") to win in the past. She's overdue (three past losses) and she's the ultimate industry insider -– she's a member of the Academy's Board of Governors.
Furthermore, Bening has been campaigning vigorously in the home stretch. Read our Awards Tracker report detailing her stops along the derby track.
Oh, and in case you're wondering what else this Oscar voter is checking off on his ballot, here goes: "The King's Speech" (best picture), David Fincher (director), Colin Firth (lead actor), Christian Bale (supporting actor), Melissa Leo (supporting actress).
-- Tom O'Neil
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 9:28 pm
by The Original BJ
OscarGuy wrote:So, I caught a brief glimpse of an article Tom O'Neil wrote about some Academy voter he's claimed has foreshadowed all of the big Oscar upsets, citing Crash, Swinton and other things...and because this person happens to be voting for Annette Bening, he's saying it's a sure sign she'll win.
People tend to project their own desires into their predictions more than empiric evidence.
I knew we weren't completely out of the woods w/r/t Tom O'Neil's obsession with THIS topic.
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:52 pm
by OscarGuy
So, I caught a brief glimpse of an article Tom O'Neil wrote about some Academy voter he's claimed has foreshadowed all of the big Oscar upsets, citing Crash, Swinton and other things...and because this person happens to be voting for Annette Bening, he's saying it's a sure sign she'll win.
People tend to project their own desires into their predictions more than empiric evidence.
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 8:10 pm
by Mister Tee
Big Magilla wrote:I think what Tee is saying, and I agree, is that the BAFTA surprises, though they probably didn't persuade many voters, were more representative of what AMPAS voters were thinking than we knew at the time.
Let me say I think this is always why precursors have predictive value: not that they persuade people to vote any particular way, but that they reflect strains of thought out there that maybe hadn't emerged prior. Until the Broadcast Critics half-chose Sandra Bullock last year, the idea she might win best actress had never crossed my mind. And I don't think any Academy member suddenly said, Whoa, the Broadcast Critics say Bullock; she gets my vote. Rather, their picking her revealed there was a certain class of voter (of limited taste, I'd judge) for whom she was a valid choice.
My take on the particular '07 race is, Amy Ryan seemed a sure winner after her near-unanimous run through the critics, but when Broadcast/Globe/SAG showed a three-way split, it was anyone's race, and Swinton's virtues -- a decent resume, and appearing in a best picture nominee -- brought her into the discussion. BAFTA actually picking her helped validate the possibility, but I think it was out there previously.
As I say, I'm agnostic on whether BAFTA actually foretells shifts in the wind or has simply had the luck to match a few upsets. I'd like to believe, as Damien suggests, that this injects more suspense into the contest, because it's otherwise a race whose life-blood has been drained.
Posted: Mon Feb 14, 2011 4:01 pm
by Damien
Well, Tee at least these results should make the Oscar race a bit more interesting again.
And bless the BAFTA folks for not nominating Melissa Leo.