Pre-Globe Predictions

[Hustler]

Well I saw away from her and I don't think Christie is winning her screentime is small and the performance is to subtle for the academy Critics don't vote for the oscars may I remind you guys.

Christie has become the stronger candidate in this race. She´s in the pole position. She only needs to win the SAG.

[avril94]

Well I saw away from her and I don't think Christie is winning her screentime is small and the performance is to subtle for the academy Critics don't vote for the oscars may I remind you guys.

[mashari]

The completely unspectacular Best Actress race this year makes me wish that Debra Winger, Michelle Pfeffier or even Annette Bening were up to finally get their due. As of now I think Christie will get her second trophy, because Page hasn't won enough of the major critc awards to overcome the uphil battle she faces being a young no-name. She needs the GG AND SAG IMO.

[Sonic Youth]

My second-to-final predictions:


Picture

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
*No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild/Michael Clayton

It would seem those last two do have industry love behind them. But I'm not willing to give up my "Diving Bell" prediction yet.


Director

Paul Thomas Anderson
*Coen Bros.
Sean Penn
Julien Schnabel
David Cronenberg/Tony Gilroy

The 'fifth slot' depends on Michael Clayton's Best Picture inclusion. Sean Penn's getting in regardless. Hey, I SAID these weren't final.


Lead Actor

George Clooney
*Daniel Day Lewis
Ryan Gosling
Emile Hirsch
Viggo Mortenson


Lead Actress

Cate Blanchett
*Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Angelina Jolie
Ellen Page


Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck
*Javier Bardem
Hal Holbrook
Tommy Lee Jones
Tom Wilkinson


Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett
Ruby Dee
Catherine Keener
*Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton


Original Screenplay

*Juno
Knocked Up**
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
The Savages

**Actually, it will be Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. But I did bring up the possibility last winter, and it'd be beyond faboo were I to be so far-reaching in my prescience.


Adapted Screenplay

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
*No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

[Penelope]

Whatever, indeed. I think you've all gone mad. this is a little girl, not the new Jennifer Jones or Audrey Hepburn.

I can just hear her acceptance speech:

"This is like so cool, ya know! I am like totally stoked! Like wow!"

[Big Magilla]

From The Envelope's Elizabeth Snead:

"Where will "Juno" breakthrough star and Golden Globe Best Actress in a Comedy nominee Ellen Page be tomorrow afternoon at, oh, say, around 6 p.m, when the winners are annnounced?

"Well actually I’m thinking I might go to Six Flags. It’s like a huge amusement park. Like really awesome roller coasters. So when I found out the Globes was cancelled I was like, 'Well I’m gonna go to Six Flags!" So I’m probably gonna be on roller coasters - I think I have a photo shoot in the morning but then I think I’m gonna go and ride some roller coasters."

Is she disappointed?

"No. It is what it is and worse things have happened in the world. A lot more people are being hurt by the strike a lot more than I am. Its – I can’t do anything about it. I support the writer’s… ahhh… whatever."

Yeah, whatever. But I bet she has her cell phone with her."

Whatever, indeed. I think you've all gone mad. this is a little girl, not the new Jennifer Jones or Audrey Hepburn.

[Steph2]

I agree with Pen that it's going to be a battle royal between Christie and Page, and at this point I could see it going either way.

I would love this, if only because Best Actress has been boringly predictable FOUR years in a row. And we all know we have the multiple precursor awards to thank for this. By the time we get to Oscar, either Christie or Page would have won the Globe, the SAG, the BAFTA and the whole thing will be hopelessly redundant. It's only a fun race when the precursor awards split, like in 2003 with Best Actor.

[avril94]

Page and Christie's performances are very beatable with the right Campaign Cotillard can win.

[cam]

MovieWes:
I like your choices very much, and I would make only minor changes myself. I think things have more or less settled, and the cream has risen to the top.(my two changes would include Paul Dano rather than Tommy Lee Jones, and Catherine Keener would take Ruby Dee's place). You have covered all the bases. I would like to see Amy Adams in there instead of "Elizabeth Redux", but I don't know whether that could happen--her character is too unsympathetic. I am of course, delighted to note that Sweeney is not a major player in your eyes.

Looking at all the lists, it seems to me that the Actress category is nowhere near as strong as the Actors this year. And the fact that you have Nikki Blonski as an alternate on there is indicative of this .

Magilla: I think (right now) that Christie and Cotillard will cancel each other out, and Jolie will always be fifth, leaving Ellen Page to win. (The other scenario: Adams is there instead of Blanchett, and she splits the votre with Page, and Christie and Cotillard split, leaving us with the awful realization that Ms. Collagen has won the Oscar).



Edited By cam on 1200183826

[Big Magilla]

Ellen Page has it.

Depends what you mean by "it" - "it" ain't the Oscar!

[OscarGuy]

You know, one of the vote counters in the OFCS awards said the same thing Sabin had. he predicted Ellen Page would win, but Julie Christie managed to pull ahead and stay ahead in the end.

[MovieWes]

Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen- No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton
Sean Penn- Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Alt. Sidney Lumet- Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Actor
George Clooney- Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis- There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling- Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch- Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen- Eastern Promises

Alt. Denzel Washington- American Gangster

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett- Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose
Julie Christie- Away from Her
Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page- Juno

Alt. Nikki Blonsky- Hairspray

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem- No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook- Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones- No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton

Alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson's War

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett- I’m Not There
Ruby Dee- American Gangster
Saorise Ronan- Atonement
Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton

Alt. Catherine Keener- Into the Wild

Best Original Screenplay
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead- Kelly Masterson
Juno- Diablo Cody
Knocked Up- Judd Apatow
Michael Clayton- Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille- Brad Bird

Alt. Eastern Promises- Stephen Knight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement- Joe Wright
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- Ronald Harwood
Into the Wild- Sean Penn
No Country for Old Men- Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood- Paul Thomas Anderson

Alt. Zodiac- James Vanderbilt

Best Animated Feature
Bee Movie
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

Alt. Persepolis

Best Film Editing
3:10 to Yuma- Michael McCusker
The Bourne Ultimatum- Christopher Rouse
Michael Clayton- Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men- Roderick Jaynes
There Will Be Blood- Tatiana S. Riegel, Dylan Tichenor

Alt. Into the Wild- Jay Cassidy

Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford- Roger Deakins
Atonement- Seamus McGarvey
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly- Janusz Kaminski
No Country for Old Men- Roger Deakins
There Will Be Blood- Robert Elswit

Alt. Into the Wild- Eric Gautier

Best Art Direction
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

Alt. No Country for Old Men

Best Costume Design
American Gangster
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

Alt. Hairspray

Best Makeup
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Alt. 300

Best Sound Mixing
Hairspray
I Am Legend
No Country for Old Men
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Alt. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Sound Editing
3:10 to Yuma
I Am Legend
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Spider-Man 3
Transformers

Alt. 300

Best Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Alt. 300

Best Original Score
Atonement- Dario Marianelli
The Kite Runner- Alberto Iglesias
No Country for Old Men- Carter Burwell
Ratatouille- Michael Giacchino
There Will Be Blood- Johnny Greenwood

Alt. Into the Wild- Michael Brook, Kaki King, Eddie Vedder

Best Original Song
"Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)" from Hairspray
"Falling Slowly" from Once
"Guaranteed" from Into the Wild
"Let’s Duet" from Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
"That’s How You Know" from Enchanted

Alt. "Ladies Choice" from Hairspray



Edited By MovieWes on 1200184852

[Sabin]

Ellen Page has it.

[Damien]

Avril, I was just responding to your assertion that "I have a feeling alot of people haven't seen Juno."

And Penelope's right, young actresses often catch the fancy of Academy voters -- although somehow Pen managed not to include Hillary Swank. (I know, I know, Boys Don't Cry doesn't make the criterion of "box office smash").

I agree with Pen that it's going to be a battle royal between Christie and Page, and at this point I could see it going either way.

[Penelope]

avril, Best Actor is very different from Best Actress; yes, occassionally a "star" performance wins Best Actor (Russell Crowe in Gladiator), but most often they tend to overlook the big stars in favor of the heavy dramatics in lesser-seen films.

Conversely, a Best Actress nominee, particularly a young actress, in a box office smash and giving a "star-making" performance has a better chance of winning than does a veteran actress: witness Jennifer Jones in The Song of Bernadette, Audrey Hepburn in Roman Holiday, Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins, Julie Christie in Darling, Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, etc.

Personally, I'm thinking Best Actress is now a fight to the finish between Christie and Page, with Cotillard just a minor spoiler.