Only the girl from Juno is a realistic alternative. And, I'd say, if the movie is nominated as Best Picture, a very solid, very possible alternative. I don't know anything about her, I don't know if she's pretty (that would help), but she's talented, and young - maybe even too young - which usually counts in this category. And the movie seems to be much liked (it certainly was at the Rome film festival) and probably a big box office hit. Oh, she could turn out to be a Maggie McNamara, true - but she could pull an Audrey Hepburn, too.
Amy Adams would be good bet if only her film weren't a chlidren's/family movie. Beautiful, tremendous reviews, prior nomination, great box office--any more boxes to tick?
Ellen Page is cute enough, I guess, but pint-sized and not a big-screen beauty by any means. If she wins it'll be due to affection for the film or her character, not as a coronation of any sort.
Count me in with at least Flipp and Cam in thinking the Queen was the very deserved nominee, and my choice (of the choices) as the best. Sabin says it's too slight, and maybe it is a little guilty of that, but that's better than what Babel and LMS did (I know you stated your preference). It was spectacularly acted and Mirren and Sheen both deserved awarding, and I thought it was the most enjoyable.
Yeah yeah whoo hoo for Marty, but honestly, maybe they got it right, but isn't that a sad state for the Oscars these days that the Departed is getting it right...I still say this could have been made by somebody not named Overdue (and probably better) and it would not have registered other than Baldwin maybe deserving to challenge Sheen
The Queen was one of the five best films of 2006, so it's placement in the category was absolutely appropriate.
The Departed's win wasn't a surprise, but it was heavily considered that Babel could have toppled it and split the director/picture prize. I didn't think LMS posed a considerable threat, especially after it failed to earn a Directing nod, but others did.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Akash wrote:Exactly, Damien. Let's not rewrite history (let's leave if only we knew then what we know now to Hillary Clinton, and people on this board who insist on rewriting her husband's term in office too) -- The Departed was a strong candidate, but it was a pleasant surprise winner after not really being considered a front-runner by most pundits.
Gosh, I didn't think I was rewriting history at all.
I had The Departed as my prediction -- and not in an "I'm going out on a limb here" way. If I recall, Entertainment Weekly predicted it as well.
Of course it wasn't a LOCK by any means, or even a heavy favorite. I thought it certainly possible that Babel or Little Miss Sunshine could also win. But isn't it more appropriate to say that The Departed was one of a couple strong contenders that could win (as A Beautiful Mind and Gladiator were) rather than some kind of upset?
Even around here, I don't recall anyone being THAT surprised when it won. Relieved, maybe.
I thought The Queen absolutely belonged in this slate. Helen Mirren's seamless and respectful transformation into Queen Elizabeth II was obviously the anchor that made the entire film work, but I found the whole thing to be simply wonderful. It was a perfect combination of an artful script, a respectful exploration of a seminal moment in history, masterful performances, a terrific score. It had every right to be there. And that stag sequence is just beautiful, no matter how obvious you think the symbolism is. One of Mirren's most genuine moments in a legnedary performance.
Edited By flipp525 on 1199723829
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
I think that The Departed last year was a very predictable winner. Iwo Jima didn't have a chance. Only Babel could have had some vague possibilities, but let's face it - it was Scorsese's year, and we all knew that.
Maybe I'm swayed by patriotism but I thought The Queen was the most impressive movie of the nominees after Iwo Jima, and one of the most unexpectedly entertaining best picture contenders of the decade. I was extremely happy with it's nomination.
I really don't get the love for The Queen at all. Mirren is wonderful in it and deserved her Oscar, but how did this boringly competent film land nominations for Picture, Director and Screenplay? And yet the left out the actor who played Tony Blair who is actually great in it.
The whole thing with Pan's Labyrinth (which I loved) and the Oscars is just weird. They loved it enough to nominate it in a bunch of tech categories and for its Screenplay (which would indicate strong support and a victory in Foreign Film) and it manages to win a few tech categories but loses the Foreign Film Oscar. It was better than all five Best Picture nominees. Even The Departed and Letters from Iwo Jima (the only two deserving nominees).
In terms of films that were on Oscar's radar, I would have nominated Pan's Labyrinth, Volver, Children of Men, The Departed and The Lives of Others (with Letters from Iwo Jima replacing The Lives of Others in Best Director).
Only The Queen, which had no business being nominated in the first place, was completely out of the running.
I was always very surprised that 'Pan's Labyrinth' had failed to pick up stronger populist constituency within voters. How could they not warm to such a pleasing fable? I was surprised, especially considering its incredibly strong tally of nominations. I like 'The Queen' but it's an emotionally muted, smartly written glorified HBO movie. I understand 'Babel', 'The Departed', 'Little Miss Sunshine' and 'Letters from Iwo Jima' and I understand 'Dreamgirls'' shut out, but I was very confused that 'Pan's Labyrinth' failed to make a stronger showing. I have to believe voters responded more strongly to that film than 'The Queen' - and by no means do I suggest that 'The Queen' is a bad nominee; I'm mostly positive on the film and vastly prefer it to 'Babel' and 'LMS'.
Wait, girls are allowed to even come to this place? I didn't know that was possible.
Exactly, Damien. Let's not rewrite history (let's leave if only we knew then what we know now to Hillary Clinton, and people on this board who insist on rewriting her husband's term in office too) -- The Departed was a strong candidate, but it was a pleasant surprise winner after not really being considered a front-runner by most pundits. Most predictions were split between Babel (Globe Best Picture/Drama winner and most nominations of the Picture contenders) and Little Miss Sunshine (PGA, WGA and SAG winner -- an almost sweep of the Guilds). Most pundits didn't seem to question whether Scorsese was going to win, but with Picture/Director splits occurring enough times in recent years -- and with The Departed being not so warm and fuzzy -- many of them were debating which film would likely benefit from a split.
Would it be Guild favorite LMS, which had won the SAG Ensemble just like Crash? Or Globe favorite Babel which was basically Crash with a Passport? Letters from Iwo Jima (whose director had worked twice before with the hack writer from Crash) and The Queen (which dealt with the aftermath of a princess who died in a Crash) weren't really considered serious threats. In fact yeah it's pretty surprising The Departed won since it was the only film with no connection to Crash.
The Original BJ wrote:And was The Departed really that much of a surprise winner?
Not to me, or many on this board, I don't think.
It wasn't a surprise in the sense of "Jeez-I-didn't-see-that-coming," but it certainly not a lock and Babel and Letters From Iwo Jima were equally viable contenders. Hell, even without a director nomination, Little Miss Thing couldn't be counted out. Only The Queen, which had no business being nominated in the first place, was completely out of the running.
Edited By Damien on 1199684691
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
anonymous wrote:I don't think Michael Clayton is anywhere near a lock for Best Picture. At least not until Tony Gilroy somehow manages to get a Best Director DGA nom.
I disagree. From the precursors and from random talk in Hollywood, I'd say Michael Clayton is the second most likely nominee after No Country. The industry loves this film.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
I think the oscar is Between Cotillard and Page, Page is in the movie that has all the momentum right now and is becoming a big hit, Cotillard has the big showy part playing a real life character actors love those, I don't see Christie winning at all she's a big outsider in Hollywood hasn't campaigned much for it and already has an oscar.
