NBR Predictions

[dws1982]

Best Film
Atonement
Alt: No Country For Old Men

Mister Tee's logic behind this sounds right.

Best Director
James Mangold, 3:10 To Yuma
Alt: Sean Penn, Into the Wild

A lot of times they give this to a no-hoper at the Oscars--Philip Noyce, Edward Zwick, Michael Mann, recently--so Magnold would be in that line.

Best Foreign Film
La Vie En Rose
Alt: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days

Don't know.

Best Documentary
Sicko
Alt: Jimmy Carter Man From Plains

Best Actor
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
Alt: Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah and No Country For Old Men

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Alt: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Best Supporting Actor
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Alt: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Alt: Olympia Dukakis, Away From Her

I'm not going for the Atonement ladies because every time I've gone for a multiple winner/same film or single winner/multiple film thing lately, I've always missed.

Best Acting by an Ensemble
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Alt: No Country For Old Men

Best Breakthrough Performance - Male
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Alt: Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford and Gone Baby Gone

Best Breakthrough Performance - Female
Ellen Page, Juno
Alt: Saorise Ronan, Atonement

Best Directorial Debut
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Alt: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone

Best Adapted Screenplay
Away From Her
Alt: No Country For Old Men

Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Alt: The Savages

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille
Alt: Persepolis

Freedom of Expression
Redacted
Alt: Jimmy Carter Man From the Plains

Lifetime Achievement
Vanessa Redgrave
Alt: Christopher Plummer

Top 10 Films
3:10 To Yuma
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Hairspray
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac

Top 5 Foreign Films
4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
The Band's Visit
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Kite Runner
La Vie En Rose

Top 5 Documentaries
Autism: The Musical
Jimmy Carter Man From Plains
Lake of Fire
No End in Sight
Sicko

Top 10 Independent Films
Away From Her
Bug
Control
Gone Baby Gone
Grace is Gone
Honeydripper
I'm Not There
Once
The Savages
The Year of the Dog

[flipp525]

Best Picture: Atonement
Alt: Away From Her

Atonement will be the most admired, if not truly loved, film of the year.

Best Director: Sarah Polley, Away From Her
Alt: P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood

I feel like there's going to be some sort of surprise here. Polley would fit that bill.

Best Actor: Frank Langhella (Starting Out in the Evening)
Alt: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Langhella's performance looks right up this group's alley. The actor himself seems to be "starting out in the evening" as well with a widely praised supporting turn in 2005's Good Night, and Good Luck followed by this performance and then next year's Frost/Nixon

Best Actress: Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Alt: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)

The first of many awards for Christie. Cotillard is a noble second choice.

Best Supporting Actor: Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

The one NBR selection that won't go onto an Oscar nomination as the tradition goes.

Best Supporting Actress: Romola Garai, Vanessa Redgrave, Saorise Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)

A touch of brilliance, Big Magilla. Briony Tallis is one of the most fascinating characters in literature of the past decade and she's being portrayed by three actresses at the top of their game. Ryan would be a more-than-worthy alternate choice turning in the best supporting performance I've seen this year.

Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Alt: La Vie en Rose

No comment.

Best Documentary Feature: Because the Bible Tells Me So
Alt: Darfur Now

Both are rather topical.

Best Breakthrough Male: Sam Riley (Control)
Alt: Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)

Best Breakthrough Female: Ellen Page (Juno)
Amy Adams (Enchanted)

Best Picture
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
Away From Her
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
3:10 to Yuma
Juno
Sweeney Todd
The Savages



Edited By flipp525 on 1196780882

[Penelope]

Might as well give it a try:

Best Picture: Atonement
Runner-up: No Country For Old Men

Best Director: Joe Wright (Atonement)
Runner-up: Coen Brothers (No Country For Old Men)

Best Actor: Frank Langella (Starting Out in the Evening)
Runner-up: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Best Actress: Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Runner-up: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)

Best Supporting Actor: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Runner-up: Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men)

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Runner-up: Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)

Best Foreign Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Runner-up: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

Top 10:

Atonement
Away From Her
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Into the Wild
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
3:10 to Yuma

[rudeboy]

Picture
*Atonement
Away from Her
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Control
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
The Savages
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Foreign
*The Kite Runner
Black Book
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
The Lives of Others
Lust, Caution

Director
The Coens – No Country for Old Men

Actor
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd

Actress
Laura Linney – Jundabyne, The Nanny Diaries, The Savages

Supporting Actor
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild

Supporting Actress
Samantha Morton – Control

Breakthrough Male
Sam Riley – Control

Breakthrough Femals
Ellen Page – Juno

Breakthrough Director
Sarah Polley – Away from Her

Original Screenplay
The Savages

Adapted Screenplay
Atonement

[cam]

I don't know if the NBR have ever given a tie: but I would think that if they ever did, it would be for Christie and Cotillard this year. Maybe it will happen at the Oscars. There weren't better performances from actresses than this, and have not been, in my memory , for a long time. No American performance can match either, IMO.
(I remember when the Oscars went to a tie between Hepburn and Streisand. What a laugh! )

Right now I will say:

BEST PICTURE Atonement

BEST ACTOR: Matthieu Almaric( I haven't seen it, but I will bow to those who have greater knowledge than I, and from what I read this is a tour de force)

BEST ACTRESS: (Tie) Cotillard and Christie

SUPPORTING ACTOR : Hal Holbrook

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: anyone's guess.



Edited By cam on 1196751162

[VanHelsing]

PICTURE: 3:10 To Yuma
DIRECTOR: Joel & Ethan Coen
ACTOR: Johnny Depp
ACTRESS: Angelina Jolie
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett



Edited By VanHelsing on 1196738768

[paperboy]

BEST PICTURE: Sweeney Todd

BEST DIRECTOR: Joe Wright - Atonement

BEST ACTOR: Mathieu Almaric - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie - Away from Her

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Linney - Jindabyne/Breach/Nanny Diaries/The Savages

BEST SCREENPLAY: The Savages

[FilmFan720]

I'll take a stab at it:

Ten Best Films in English
1. Away From Her
2. No Country for Old Men
3. The Wind that Shakes the Barley
4. Atonement
5. There Will Be Blood
6. Sweeney Todd
7. Gone Baby Gone
8. Michael Clayton
9. The Savages
10. Before the Devil Knows Your Dead

Notable Films (or whatever the hell they call this dumb category)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Black Snake Moan
Bug
Control
Grace is Gone
Grindhouse
I'm Not There
Juno
Once
The Year of the Dog

Five Best Foreign Language Films
1. Lust, Caution
2. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
3. La Vie en Rose
4. Black Book
5. 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille
(ru: The Simpsons Movie)

Best Documentary
My Kid Could Paint That
(ru: Darfour Now)

Best Actor
Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening
(ru: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood)

Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away From Her
(ru: Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart)

Best Supporting Actor
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
(ru: Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Supporting Actress
Olympia Dukakis, Away from Her
(ru: Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai and Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement)

Best Director
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
(ru: Joe Wright, Atonement)

Best Screenplay
Away From Her (Sarah Polley)
(ru: No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen))

Best Breakthrough Performance - Male
James McAvoy, Atonement
(ru: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild)

Best Breakthrough Performance - Female
Ellen Page, Juno
(ru: Romola Garai, Atonement)

Best Directorial Debut
Sarah Polley, Away From Here
(ru: Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone)

[atomicage]

BEST ACTOR: Frank Langella in Starting Out In The Evening (runner-up: John Cusack in Grave Is Gone)

Man. Langella's getting alot of love here. Maybe he's in hotter water than I thought.

Also, glad to see the toss to Cusack. I read that this is his most touching performance yet. I'm interested to see that particular film.

[Big Magilla]

I can't think of the National Board of Review without recalling how in 1999 -- before there were so many sources of instant information on the Internet -- someone posted here that the Board gave a sweep to October Sky, including an actor no one had ever heard of called Jake Gyllenhaal. Ahh, precious memories . . .

I remember this a bit differently. Gyllenhaal was the star of the film and already something of a name having first drawn attention as the kid in City Slickers eight years earlier.

What I recall is that one of the actors playing another kid in the film, who was one of our posters at the time, provided a fictitious winners' list that included himself as the best supporting actor winner. It was he, not Gyllenhaal, that no one had ever heard of.

I can't recall which of the young actors if was, but I looked all of them up on the imdb and they're all still acting, so maybe some day...

Incidentally, this was the same year that Chloe Sevigny's cousin was a regular poster and was so sure that Sevigny would win the supporting Oscar, that when she didn't she (the cousin) had so much egg on her face she stopped posting.

[Damien]

I can't think of the National Board of Review without recalling how in 1999 -- before there were so many sources of instant information on the Internet -- someone posted here that the Board gave a sweep to October Sky, including an actor no one had ever heard of called Jake Gyllenhaal. Ahh, precious memories . . .

In any case, my predictions:

BEST PICTURE: Atonement (runner-up: No Country For Old Men)

BEST DIRECTOR: Sidney Lumox for Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead (runner-up: Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood)

BEST ACTOR: Frank Langella in Starting Out In The Evening (runner-up: John Cusack in Grave Is Gone)

BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie in Away from Her (runner-up: Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men (runner- up: Hal Holbrook in Into The Wild)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lauren Bacall in The Walker (runner-up: Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone)

BEST SCREENPLAY: Juno (runner-up: The Savages)

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: The Band’s Visit ((runner-up: The Kite Runner)

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - MALE: Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Gone Baby Gone (runner-up: Emile Hirsch in Into The Wild)

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE - FEMALE: Ellen Page in Juno (runner-up: Romola Garai in Atonement)

BEST DOCUMENTARY: The Rape Of Europa (runner-up: No End In Sight)

GODDAMN CARTOON: Ratatouille (runner-up: Persepolis)

BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Sara Polley for Away From Her (runner-up: Ben Affleck for Gone Baby Gone)

LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT: Vanessa Redgrave

TOP TEN
1. Atonement
2. No Country For Old Men
3. Away From Her
4. There Will Be Blood
5. Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead
6. Sweeney Todd
7. The Wind That Shakes The Barley
8. Into The Wild
9. 3:10 To Yuma
10. A Mighty Heart

TOP FIVE FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS
1. The Band’s Visit
2. The Kite Runner
3. The Devil And The Butterfly
4. Lust, Caution
5. Lady Chatterly

BEST DOCUMENTARY
1. The Rape Of Europa
2. No End In Sight
3. Sicko
4. For The Bible Tells Me So
5. Darfur Now

SPECIAL CITATIONS FOR ACHIEVEMENT IN FILMMAKING
Julie Taymor for Across The Universe



Edited By Damien on 1196713852

[atomicage]

Critics often get screenings for big city's long before they would go out to groups like HFPA and IPA. They'll have seen all the films by the end of the year, except those who have members that aren't based in major metro-areas, like the OFCS, which has some members (like me) in the middle of a dead zone for screenings/screeners.

Right. I just couldn't remember when NBR announced, is all.

Thanks, man.

[OscarGuy]

Critics often get screenings for big city's long before they would go out to groups like HFPA and IPA. They'll have seen all the films by the end of the year, except those who have members that aren't based in major metro-areas, like the OFCS, which has some members (like me) in the middle of a dead zone for screenings/screeners.

[atomicage]

Averaging out our predictions, we have created a list sort-of like this:

Top Ten English-Language Films
1. Atonement
2. No Country For Old Men
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Into the Wild
5. Sweeney Todd
6. Away from Her
7. Juno
8. Once
9. Michael Clayton
10. The Savages

(With Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Gone Baby Gone, and Zodiac close behind)

I like how Charlie Wilson's War has completely fallen to the waste-side. Also, I have to ask. The late December releases, like There will be Blood and Sweeney, are they going to be eligible for awards? Will they make the deadline?

As for foreign films, it looks like we mostly agree:
1. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days
3. La Vie En Rose
4. Black Book
5. The Lives of Others

[atomicage]

Interesting. Did you guys all come up with the idea of the three actresses from Atonement winning supporting actress on your own or did I give you the idea?

I'll admit it. I was a dirty thief. It makes a lot of sense.

Anonymous, I didn't think about Ben Affleck for Directorial Debut. That would definitely be an understandable win.

Mister Tee, you're right. We totally forgot the Special Achievement award. Your two guesses (Jenkins and Polley) would definitely be interesting, with Affleck (Screenwriter and Director of Gone Baby Gone) Or Coen brothers, though they are becoming pretty high-profile, so much so that I sometimes forget that they're indie. Oh, and don't forget Tony Gilroy!