It's October, Time for More Predictions

[rudeboy]

Ellen Burstyn had the fatal double disadvantage of being in a film that a good proportion of the academy doubtless couldn't stomach to the end, and of having it come out in Julia Roberts' banner year.

A genuine legend giving a well-loved performance in a catnip role directed by an actor? Looking at this year's paper-thin list of realistic contenders, I honestly don't see anyone standing in Christie's way.

And yes, according to Lionsgate's awards site, Pinsent is absolutely (and rightly) positioned in lead.

[Sonic Youth]

Some of us said that about Ellen Burstyn, but look how that turned out...

Some of us said that about Helen Mirren, but look how that turned out...

Do you always have to do that?

[OscarGuy]

Some of us said that about Ellen Burstyn, but look how that turned out...

[flipp525]

Pinsent is definitely lead in Away From Her. I can't see shoehorning him into support at all. Maybe it was the character she played as opposed to her performance, but Dukakis left me cold. Chrisite will not only be nominated, she'll likely win.

I almost felt like she was supposed to leave you cold though, Magilla. To me, she had been deadened by the entire experience of caring for an Alzheimer's patient and all she had left was that house and the gifts her son sent instead of coming home. That's one of the things I thought was so great about her performance. Her character was sort of a cautionary tale of what can happen to someone who's decided to let go of their hold on their "lost" loved one, but also lets that best part of themselves go right along with it.

Grant, on the other hand, had a vibrance and eagerness to keep their love alive and the person he had been with her, no matter what his wife's current status of memory was.

Honestly, I have to agree with you on Christie's hopeful win for this performance. It was spellbinding and I don't see how anything could beat a veteran actress at the absolute top of her game this year.



Edited By flipp525 on 1193413920

[Big Magilla]

Pinsent is definitely lead in Away From Her. I can't see shoehorning him into support at all. Maybe it was the character she played as opposed to her performance, but Dukakis left me cold. Chrisite will not only be nominated, she'll likely win.

[flipp525]

Olympia Dukakis and Gordon Pinsent's performances were haunting and stuck with me long after the film was over. They are both award-worthy turns and should definitely be on the shortlist. Dukakis, in particular. I didn't even feel like I'd seen her act before, it was that much of a fresh performance. Pinsent is rightfully a co-lead but I can see him being relegated to support; the male lead category seems very competitive this year.

As I stated in my first set of predictions back in early September, I think that Away From Her has the mileage to make it all the way into the BP lineup in the In the Bedroom/Sideways slot with Sarah Polley a surprise double nominee for her sumptuous direction and skilled adapatation of Alice Munro's short story "The Bear Came Over the Mountain".

Scriptwriters and filmmakers ought to look at more of Munro's short fiction for source material. She's a master of the genre. Her short stories are incredibly good, rich and full, wide or small in scope depending on which one you choose, and always skillfully crafted.



Edited By flipp525 on 1193422636

[OscarGuy]

I have Dukakis in my predictions, but Pinsent is currently considered lead where he's at on my list of hopefuls, but not as a nominee.

[Precious Doll]

Is there any reason why no one is predicting Olympia Dukakis for a supporting actress nomination and very few of you are predicting Gordon Pinsent for a supporting actor nomination for their performances in Away From Her?

For me they are more deserving then Julie Christie. Months after first seeing the film it's Pinsent & Dukakis roles that linger on in my memory.

I am included to think that they will make the cut. Away From Her is one of those small performance driven pictures that actors tend to go for (e.g. Iris, In the Bedroom, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways, etc).

Anway they certainly stand a much better chance of nominations which is more then I can say for the supporting performances that I consider the best of the year so far, Michel Blanc for The Witnesses and Demi Moore (great hair and all) for Mr. Brooks.

[rolotomasi99]

i just saw AMERICAN GANGSTER. see my complete review on the film specific thread. i will summarize it here.
first of all, i have to say it is an excellent film. very enjoyable and very well done. everyone here should go to see it. like 3:10 TO YUMA, it is a well made, thinking person's action film. if only all hollywood films were this smart, hollywood would not be such a dirty word. i think ridley scott fans and detractors (i am looking at you damien) will be quite impressed with his directorial retraint. his visual style has not been this lowkey since THELMA & LOUISE. he did a good job, and i was very happy with his maturity.
all that being said, this film will not be nominated for best picture. as good as it was, it will be fairly or unfairly compared to THE DEPARTED. the academy does nominate many gangster movies, but when they do they have to be the cream of the crop. they just recognized one of the best gangster films in years, by the best director to ever tackle the subject. they will not be impressed enough with this second comer to nominate it in the top category. it is like CAPOTE vs INFAMOUS or DANGEROUS LIAISONS vs VALMONT all over again. it is not like the seconds films are bad (in fact some consider them better), but they are not good enough to make people want to replay last year's nominee/winner.
crowe is good but is definitely not going to be nominated. washington is very good, but will only be nominated if best actor is weak this year, which it is not lookiing like it will be.
director seems very unlikely, and screenplay seems impossible in the crowded adapted category, unless they go original somehow and even then unlikely.
harris savides is brilliant, but his work in ZODIAC is superior. i think he is going to be ignored for both films. he is the new gordon willis, both in terms of style and lack of love from the academy.
academy favorite pietro scalia has the only shot for a nomination from the film. he actually has a very good chance of winning. he does an excellent job of showing these young mtv influenced editors what truly great editing looks like. i am not sure what other film is going to be his nearest competition, but right now it is his to lose.
like i said, i highly recommend this film. it is absolutely worth your money and time. i just do not think it deserves any spot on your predictions list outside of editing. let me know what everyone else thinks when they see it next weekend.

[FilmFan720]

Getting back on topic, my first shot of the year:

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DIRECTOR
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Joe Wright, Atonement
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Kiera Knightly, Atonement
Ellen Page, Juno

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Albert Finney, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Brad Pitt, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone





BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Margot at the Wedding
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
Waitress

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Gangster
Atonement
Gone Baby Gone
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

[The Original BJ]

Original BJ, if it's just Life is Beautiful which provides you with nightmare material, your life is very beautiful indeed. I wish everyone in the world would be so lucky, but I guess people unforunately have worse problems.

Italiano, I didn't mean this literally. I don't actually have nightmares about Roberto Benigni (at least I've never had one I can remember.) It was just a joke.

And, for what it's worth, I don't hate Life is Beautiful, nor does it provide me with much nightmare material. I just think that scene is completely noxious.

[ITALIANO]

First of all - who are you? Seriously, I don't remember you.

Of course, I hope that it's not the ONLY nightmare he has... but I will explain to you another time what I meant, don't worry.

[Greg]

Original BJ, if it's just Life is Beautiful which provides you with nightmare material, your life is very beautiful indeed. I wish everyone in the world would be so lucky, but I guess people unforunately have worse problems.

BJ wrote "an image," not "the only image." I will rephrase what I said earlier and claim that you are the euro-cosmopolitan answer to criddic.

[ITALIANO]

Original BJ, if it's just Life is Beautiful which provides you with nightmare material, your life is very beautiful indeed. I wish everyone in the world would be so lucky, but I guess people unforunately have worse problems.

And also (PLEASE DON'T READ WHAT FOLLOWS IF YOU DONT WANT TO BE IRRITATED, OFFENDED, ETC) - I promised myself that I would have been good and everything but... how can one see that dreadful movie The Family Stone not once but TWICE? What had he missed the first time?! And how can one relate to "the Stone family dynamics"? To me, they were extraterrestrials - not-too-believable monsters even too obviously created by a not-too-talented writer... Big mystery.

[The Original BJ]

Is it bad that I immediately had an image of Italiano riding into a restaurant on a horse painted green?

Care to explain the "painted green" part?

I believe it's a Life is Beautiful reference...to bring the conversation full-circle.

Yup. Roberto Benigni parading around on a green horse...that's an image that will haunt my nightmares!