Last predictions before precursors

[Sabin]

I'll join in:

BEST PICTURE
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
--All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest are big question marks that could be replaced by Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Color Purple, The Iron Claw, and May December. Why those two? I'm just confident enough that they will have fans. If we went to eight, I'd leave them off.

BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
--Lanthimos, Nolan, and Scorsese seem set. Gerwig is an industry respected auteur so I think she's close behind. Flip a coin between Celine Song, Jonathan Glazer, Alexander Payne. Today, I'll go with Glazer. Interesting that nobody seems to be predicting Bradley Cooper. I think it's possible.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
--Right now, I have Scott over Domingo and Wright. I think Domingo is hurt by his film. I haven't seen American Fiction but it doesn't sound like a transformation for Wright. I've seen a lot of contenders fall by the wayside in comedies because what they did didn't seem enough like acting, like Michael Douglas for Wonder Boys and Paul Giamatti for Sideways.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
--speaking of comedies. I was initially a little doubtful of Margot Robbie's chances. She seems like the kind of perfect that can easily get taken for granted. I find it hard to imagine anyone who sees Huller in Anatomy of a Fall leaving her off their ballots. As I look back on my predictions from November 2016, I see that I had Annette Bening down for 20th Century Women. Maybe none of us on these message boards learn...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
--is it hive mind or are we just that good? Everybody has De Niro, Downey, Jr., Gosling, and Ruffalo. After that, it's a double nominee (Damon or DaFoe), a newcomer (Melton, Sessa), or the saddest third wheel of the year (John Magaro). Just about everyone who sees Charles Melton seems to think he's incredible. Sight-unseen, he's my choice but I'm excited because over the last few years, we've seen a wave of nonsense contenders wash ashore and back out to the ocean, having wasted so much of our collective energy in this category like Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Jared Leto (The Little Things & House of Gucci), and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar). I'll just say that the minute I saw Ben Affleck show up with those shades in Air, I thought to myself "Someone in the HFPA is gonna like this."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
--the one predictions I have this year is that Best Supporting Actress will be a mess going up until Oscar morning. I predict the HFPA floating contenders like Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon) and Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) in films that otherwise don't show up. I predict SAG will float America Ferrara (Barbie) because they saw their films. I predict the critics will drive us mad by floating prospects like Patti LuPone (Beau is Afraid) why? Because... I'm not sure there was a Best Supporting Actress this year. I doubt this year will bring a Hullersaince or the return of Binoche. I'll just go with Cruz because she's apparently quiet good, Neon has a waiver, and Cruz has gotten in on projects that haven't picked up much traction before.

[mlrg]

I do get your point about foreign language nominees Tee and thought about it while making the list. I just don’t feel enough traction for any of those names under what it looks like such a competitive year althoug I must admit that Sandra Huller can easily replace Bening on my list.

[Mister Tee]

For the most part, a reasonable template. I might argue I think it's unlikely Giamatti would be boxed out again from a tight field, but it's not impossible.

However, one big quarrel: you may be cynical about voters' affection for non-English language fare, and it's certainly been true in the deeper past that, in bountiful English-language years (which this appears to be), foreign films have sometimes been overlooked. But I think the recent addition of many overseas members -- particularly to the directing branch -- has made it far more likely foreign films get over-represented than under-cited (note the two non-English directin nominees in 2018). In a year where Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall have been highly praised and financially successful, with The Zone of Interest, also acclaimed, to come, it seems impossible to me that all of those films and their participants -- Huller, Lee, Song, Triet, Glazer -- will end up with zero mentions.

[mlrg]

We are one week away of the beginning of the awards seasons. These are my last predictions for the top 6 categories pre precursors:

PICTURE
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig “Barbie”
Alexander Payne “The Holdovers”
Martin Scorsese “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Christopher Nolan “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Lanthimos “Poor Things”

ACTOR
Bradley Cooper “Maestro”
Leonardo di Caprio “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Cillian Murphy “Oppenheimer”
Andrew Scott “All of Us Strangers”
Jeffrey Wright “American Fiction”

ACTRESS
Annette Bening “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Carey Mulligan “Maestro”
Margot Robbie “Barbie”
Emma Stone “Poor Things”

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe “Poor Things”
Robert de Niro “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr. “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo “Poor Things”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt “Oppenheimer”
Daniele Brooks “The Color Purple”
Claire Foy “All of Us Strangers”
Jodie Foster “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph “The Holdovers”